EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

So what would be the upper-bound for Bud in 24 hours time? T 5.0 or somewhere in that neighborhood?

T4.5 from SAB and T5.0 from TAFB.

[Yellow Evan]

Is there any reason the peak intensity is lowered down 10 knots compared to the first advisory? Seems odd given how big they busted with Aletta...

[Kingarabian]

Mmmm.. Idk about the NHC's intensity forecast.

[Highteeld]

Their forecast discussion confused me. They lowered the intensity forecast to better match SHIPS, yet acknowledged the fact that their forecast could be well undercooked all in the same line or two. Seemed really odd to me

[cycloneye]

Mmmm.. Idk about the NHC's intensity forecast.

I fear is too low.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like there'll be lots of time for the Budding storm to strengthen.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS peaks this at 942mb.

[storminabox]

Seems reasonable given what happened with Aletta.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like up to 45kts.

SAB up to 2.5/2.5

Some shear now restricting outflow to the north.

[Twisted-core]

NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the
SHIPS model. Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast
strengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the
HCCA and FSSE intensity models

High expectations for bud.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Bud's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized on
satellite imagery, with a developing CDO and banding features over
the southeastern portions of the circulation. The current
intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB. There is low shear over the storm and the ocean
waters are very warm. These environmental factors should continue
to prevail for the next few days and Bud will likely become a
hurricane within a day or so. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the simple and corrected consensus numerical guidance. As
noted earlier there is a possibility of rapid intensification,
especially when Bud develops a well-defined inner core, and
subsequent NHC forecasts may need to be adjusted higher. Beyond 72
hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the
cold waters near the Baja California peninsula.

The motion continues northwestward and is estimated to be about
310/8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow on the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level high that covers much of Mexico. In the
latter part of the forecast period, a gradual turn toward the
north-northwest is likely as Bud reaches the western portion of the
high. This track would keep the tropical cyclone offshore of
mainland Mexico but move it toward the southern portion of the Baja
California Peninsula later in the week. It should be noted that
there is significant uncertainty in 5-day position and intensity
forecasts.

Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast
of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of
the coast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

Barring an inhibiting factor (surprise shear), rapid intensification has likely begin. Fresh ATMS (low res) pass shows the LLC well embedded within the CDO that is firing repeated cold convection:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUN 2018 Time : 094538 UTC
Lat : 13:29:05 N Lon : 102:41:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 998.3mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 4.3

Raw numbers shooting up on ADT.

[Kingarabian]

GFS bottoms out @ 936mb. Not expecting it since time is limited, but I'm going to go ahead and say that there's a chance Bud becomes the first Cat.5 in the EPAC since Patricia.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Back to back RI's in June.... This is basically a re-run of the 2015 season.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,very bold prediction of the 5 but it can happen as it moves not so fast and more NW. Do you or anyone have stats on how many cat 5's have occured on June in history? I only remember CELIA in 2010.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,very bold prediction of the 5 but it can happen as it moves not so fast and more NW. Do you or anyone have stats on how many cat 5's have occured on June in history? I only remember CELIA in 2010.

2010 is all I can remember; Hurricane Celia.

[Yellow Evan]

Kingarabian,very bold prediction of the 5 but it can happen as it moves not so fast and more NW. Do you or anyone have stats on how many cat 5's have occured on June in history? I only remember CELIA in 2010.

2010 is all I can remember; Hurricane Celia.

Ava 73, but as you probably have read me say this 10-15 times now, the EPAC database is really crappy pre-1988.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55 kts.

EP, 03, 2018061012, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1032W, 55, 994, TS

[cycloneye]

The RI probabilities have gone up bigtime.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50%
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81%
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66%

[Highteeld]

Trying to organize a core