EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Look at those bands.This has to be at least a TD but an ASCAT is needed to see if a well defined center is there.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2.gif[img]

Absolutely agree.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET down to 956mb

[Kingarabian]

30/0545 UTC 10.4N 100.8W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

When will we get the evidence?

Although the shower activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
appears to be organized, there is no evidence of a well-defined
center yet. Conditions remain quite favorable for a tropical
depression or a storm to form well south of the coast of Mexico
later today or Sunday. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[euro6208]

Wow another fish.

[cycloneye]

Wow another fish.

The majority of the cyclones that form in the basin are fish systems.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ27 KNES 301204
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 30/1145Z

C. 10.8N

D. 102.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .3 FOR DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[galaxy401]

At this rate, an eye will be forming before this system gets upgraded.

[cycloneye]

How many times they have said that? At this rate,there will never be a well-defined center.

Satellite data indicate that the disturbance associated with a broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico has not developed a well-defined center yet.
However, conditions remain quite favorable for a tropical depression
or tropical storm to form well south of the coast of Mexico later
today or Sunday. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Geez. By the time this forms, will it be where Emilia is? (literally and figuratively)

[cycloneye]

Yes.

30/1745 UTC 11.0N 103.8W T2.0/2.0 97E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Yes.

30/1745 UTC 11.0N 103.8W T2.0/2.0 97E -- East Pacific

TXPZ27 KNES 301806
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 30/1745Z

C. 11.0N

D. 103.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A LARGE COLD
OVERCAST. DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972018 06/30/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 43 53 64 77 89 96 100 94 84
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 43 53 64 77 89 96 100 94 84
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 50 62 77 92 95 87 72 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 9 9 10 9 7 5 2 1 5 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 5 2 8 8
SHEAR DIR 57 47 41 23 35 31 27 59 18 1 47 259 271
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.9 28.7 28.5 28.7 27.7 26.9 26.4 24.9 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 147 144 152 150 152 142 134 130 114 106
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 1
700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 72 73 74 67 67 66 58 57 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 18 21 27 33 36 37 34 31
850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 42 46 49 59 75 79 74 84 72 83 69
200 MB DIV 66 53 32 29 55 73 88 101 67 62 30 -14 -3
700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -4 -6 3 8 10 4
LAND (KM) 762 776 790 825 871 966 1084 1116 1147 1235 1360 1523 1687
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 12 14 15 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 27 34 44 52 39 41 14 12 3 1 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 14. 24. 31. 33. 27. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 34. 47. 59. 66. 70. 64. 54.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 103.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 2.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.36 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 22.2% 14.7% 13.1% 0.0% 17.3% 19.0% 21.8%
Logistic: 0.7% 6.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.6% 4.1% 23.6% 21.2%
Bayesian: 0.8% 19.6% 4.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 6.4%
Consensus: 3.0% 15.9% 7.3% 4.9% 0.3% 7.2% 14.4% 16.5%
DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 8.0% 15.0% 47.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Positive news in the past few minutes including the models. Looks like finally they will upgrade.

[CyclonicFury]

97E should still develop (and it is likely close to becoming a TD as we speak), but it has really took its time to consolidate and probably doesn't have enough time to be the long-track monster we thought it would be several days ago. Still will have to watch out for RI at some point since it will be over warm water for about 3 days.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the criteria that defines what a TD or a TS is for the NHC changes from storm to storm. I recall they went ahead and declared Carlotta a TD despite acknowleding numerous competing swirls, meaning no set and confined LLC.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the criteria that defines what a TD or a TS is for the NHC changes from storm to storm. I recall they went ahead and declared Carlotta a TD despite acknowleding numerous competing swirls, meaning no set and confined LLC.

A lot depends on the NHC forecaster on hand most likely.

[cycloneye]

We have it finnally!!

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 104.4W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The disturbance located well south of Mexico has become better
organized during the day. Recent visible imagery indicates that the
surface center has become better defined, and TAFB and SAB both
provided a data-T number of 2.0. On this basis, the system has been
designated as Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity
of 30 kt.

The depression has been moving steadily west-northwestward at 11 kt
today, steered by a mid-level ridge extending from central Mexico
westward over much of the eastern North Pacific. This ridge
will likely be the dominant steering feature throughout the forecast
period, and the cyclone should continue on a west-northwest heading
at around the same forward speed through the middle of next week.
All of the dynamical models forecast this general scenario and I
have no reason to favor any one particular model, so the official
track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus through
day 5.

While the organization of the cyclone has improved today, the
surface circulation remains fairly broad, and deep convection is
limited to the northern semicircle of the circulation. In addition,
deep-layer shear of around 15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF,
is currently affecting the depression. Because of these factors,
any initial intensification will likely be slow to occur. After
about 24 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, which should
allow the depression to become better organized and strengthen at a
quicker rate. The dynamical-statistical models bring the cyclone to
near major hurricane intensity by day 4, while the dynamical models
generally show more modest strengthening. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the intensity consensus for the first 36 hours, and
a little above it, closer to DSHP and LGEM, from 48-96 h. By the end
of the forecast period, the cyclone will reach cooler waters, which
should result in rapid weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.2N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.2N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.9N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.5N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET makes this a hurricane in 36 hours. Keeps it as a Cat3-Cat.2 hurricane till Friday.

[cycloneye]

Even thou classification has been slow to come,I can see a good ACE system but not what was expected a week ago.I am guessing between 7-8 units.It would take a good RI rate to push it above 10.