WPAC: JEBI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Including Hector, I actually count 22 JTWC tropical storms so far this season now.

WHat is the missing TS that i'm missing?

[1900hurricane]

I have:

1) 02W Sanba
2) 03W Jelawat
3) 04W
4) 05W Ewiniar
5) 06W Maliksi
6) 07W
7) 08W Gaemi
8) 09W Prapiroon
9) 10W Maria
10) 11W Son-Tinh
11) 12W Ampil
12) 14W Wukong
13) 15W Jongdari
14) 17W Shanshan
15) 18W Yagi
16) 19W Leepi
17) 20W Bebinca
18) 10E Hector
19) 21W Rumbia
20) 22W Soulik
21) 23W Cimaron
22) 25W Jebi

[cycloneye]

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it might be transitioning from a curved band towards an embedded type center and perhaps about to rapidly intensify. I suspect the agencies are too low with their current intensities at the moment. Jebi may be approaching typhoon intensity now.

[1900hurricane]

The center appears to be in the center of the CDO. In fact, it's probably between a pair of overshoots up near -90ºC that probably delineate the developing eyewall.

[BYG Jacob]

Easily typhoon strength at this point.

[mrbagyo]

I suspect there's a pinhole type eye trying to form
Classic WPac typhoon in the making

[mrbagyo]

Hot tower is exploding near the center

[mrbagyo]

Here's some rapid scan action.

[mrbagyo]

JMA - 50 knots

1821

STS 1821 (Jebi)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 28 August 2018
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°40' (16.7°)
E154°25' (154.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)

[1900hurricane]

You can follow the trace of the highest microwave returns on visible imagery.

[mrbagyo]

About to pop

[euro6208]

Up to 55 knots.

25W JEBI 180829 0000 17.0N 153.4E WPAC 55 994

[1900hurricane]

SAB was at 4.0 almost 6 hours ago.

TXPQ29 KNES 282136
TCSWNP

A. 25W (JEBI)

B. 28/2030Z

C. 16.8N

D. 154.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 0.85
CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0 AFTER A +0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR WHITE
BANDING. THE MET IS 4.0 AS IS THE PT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/1811Z 16.7N 154.3E GMI
28/2003Z 16.8N 154.0E SSMIS


...HOSLEY

[mrbagyo]

JMA - 55 knots

STS 1821 (Jebi)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 29 August 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E153°30' (153.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)

[1900hurricane]

A pinhole eye may soon emerge based on microwave imagery.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS
EVIDENCED BY OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR THE STORM CENTER. CONSOLIDATION
ALSO CONTINUED WITH DEEP/SOLID FORMATIVE BANDS (MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTHERN FLANK) WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. SUSTAINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO VISIBLE
ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON A 282254Z ASCAT TIGHT BULLS-EYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND
RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS CONDUCIVE WITH WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS), LOW VWS (10-15
KTS) AND A STEADY OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING.
B. TS 25W WILL REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO TAU 48 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN TO A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECASTS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS JEBI WILL TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 96 BEFORE A
WEAKENING PHASE BEGINS DUE TO INCREASING VWS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TURN BUT
REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT - ABOUT 380 NM BY TAU 120 - WITH
THE ECMWF SUITE (ECM2 AND EEM2) AS THE NOTABLE LEFT-OF-TRACK
OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORM TRACK CHANGES, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72, THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE LEFT OUTLIERS, REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 290311
TCSWNP

A. 25W (JEBI)

B. 29/0230Z

C. 16.9N

D. 152.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. WELL DEFINED COLD DENSE OVERCAST MEASURING ROUGHLY 2.0 DEG RESULTS
IN DT=4.5. MET=4.0 AND PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[mrbagyo]

JMA has a stronger storm than JTWC

60 knots (10 min) vs 55 knots (1 min)
I would say this is a typhoon already


STS 1821 (Jebi)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 29 August 2018
<Analysis at 03 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°05' (17.1°)
E152°50' (152.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)

[euro6208]

Likely getting underestimated. ADT and SATCON at 75 knots.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08290319
SATCON: MSLP = 980 hPa MSW = 73 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 73.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 71 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 979 hPa 75 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG290440
CIMSS AMSU: 997 hPa 44 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08272136
ATMS: 980.0 hPa 68.2 knots Date: 08290319
SSMIS: 980.0 hPa 68.2 knots Date: 08290319
CIRA ATMS: 999 hPa 43 knots Date: 08271448