ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1038119202543030273

I assume he is talking about 94L 'pumping the ridge'? Is this something that really happens? People seem divided on the idea.

[OiOya]

I've been pretty steadfast on guessing Florence S.C. as point of landfall but am close to changing that thought to Jacksonville/Savannah instead.

What??? The 70 mile stretch of land between the SC coast and Florence, SC would like to have some words with you.

[meriland29]

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1038119202543030273

I assume he is talking about 94L 'pumping the ridge'? Is this something that really happens. People seem divided on the idea.

Would that actually enhance Florence or just effect her track? That is an interesting setup.

[artist]

Here was AJC3 ‘s take on 94l’s interaction, when I asked him, hope he doesn’t mind my sharing-

On the one hand it could wind up being the SE CONUS' saving grace, as far as Florence is concerned. If it sits there and spins up, it would surely take a chunk out of the ridge, which would allow Flo to move more poleward, perhaps missing the eastern US entirely.

BUT...

On the other hand, IT could become a problem if it gets trapped and sent west!

[Aric Dunn]

Date/Time_(UTC) Source Sensor Vmax(kts) ARCHER Lat Lon Geo-ref Lat Lon 50% cert. rad. 95% cert. rad. Eye diam (deg) % cert. of eye


20180907 16:14:13 * AMSR2 85-92GHz 55.0 24.89 -51.51 24.90 -51.33 0.34 0.95 0.70 34.4

[Aric Dunn]

Still pretty heavily sheared. the southern portion of the LLC is getting exposed again. pretty apparent its south of 24.9....

[Blown Away]

Date/Time_(UTC) Source Sensor Vmax(kts) ARCHER Lat Lon Geo-ref Lat Lon 50% cert. rad. 95% cert. rad. Eye diam (deg) % cert. of eye


20180907 16:14:13 * AMSR2 85-92GHz 55.0 24.89 -51.51 24.90 -51.33 0.34 0.95 0.70 34.4

Meanwhile, Flo going WSW...

[Kingarabian]

Today's model trends were pretty disturbing.

Looks like I have to prep for another TC here in Hawaii and now I possibly have to get my folks ready in Wilmington.

[Aric Dunn]

a better way to see it. of course there are some adjustments that have to be made because of logarithmic spirals. but in a general sense, you could fit circle various portions( more the better) of the curved bands and nail down the center pretty accurately been doing this for years on my side project. works pretty darn well. still some issues to work out. figuring out how to write a small program for it someday.

[tolakram]

Today's model trends were pretty disturbing.

Looks like I have to prep for another TC here in Hawaii and now I possibly have to get my folks ready in Wilmington.

What are the odds of both at the same time. I saw Eric Blakes post as well, adding Guam into the mix.

[Kingarabian]

Today's model trends were pretty disturbing.

Looks like I have to prep for another TC here in Hawaii and now I possibly have to get my folks ready in Wilmington.

What are the odds of both at the same time. I saw Eric Blakes post as well, adding Guam into the mix.

Earliest possible TS winds from Olivia is Tuesday, while the NHC currently has Florence bearing down on the SEUSA late Wednesday/Thursday.

[chaser1]

I've been pretty steadfast on guessing Florence S.C. as point of landfall but am close to changing that thought to Jacksonville/Savannah instead.

What??? The 70 mile stretch of land between the SC coast and Florence, SC would like to have some words with you.

Well....okay. I suppose you could toss that 70 mile stretch into that potential track scenario too

[Aric Dunn]

ADT jump from 25.97n to 24.80 N

in 30 minutes ...

2018SEP07 181534 2.8 1001.7 41.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -52.32 -39.02 IRRCDO N/A 5.5 24.97 52.19 FCST GOES16 38.7
2018SEP07 184534 2.8 1001.8 41.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -42.18 -31.18 IRRCDO N/A 4.8 24.80 52.28 FCST GOES16 38.5

[Mouton]

Here was AJC3 ‘s take on 94l’s interaction, when I asked him, hope he doesn’t mind my sharing-

On the one hand it could wind up being the SE CONUS' saving grace, as far as Florence is concerned. If it sits there and spins up, it would surely take a chunk out of the ridge, which would allow Flo to move more poleward, perhaps missing the eastern US entirely.

BUT...

On the other hand, IT could become a problem if it gets trapped and sent west!

If it developes, any chance of a Fugiwawa effect?

[GCANE]

Pretty good convective burst.
Cirrus spewing out better on all radial directions.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[jaxfladude]

Is there a chance for the 3rd year in a row for those of us in NE FLA and surrounding areas will have deal with yet another hurricane threat?? And this time a direct or near direct hit. Yikes if yes. I have really come to hate this time of year, even with football season.

[chaser1]

...climatology...

I'm super interested in this. As far as I can tell, most 'climatological' tropical storm predictions seem useless in a world with changing climate. Water temperatures are different. Patterns are different. Why would the climate be a good indicator of where a current storm is going? I don't follow the logic here at all. It is using a static variable to guess a moving target. It's not going to work.

And where do these people get off suggesting that climate-based historical tracks of hurricanes are an indicator *at all* of where a current storm is going? Is there evidence to support this? It seems to me that it is a lot more likely that a storm in a current position has *never* closely resembled the starting conditions of any storm in history. I would suggest that the people using climatology tracks are being dense on-purpose, as I think there is no evidence whatsoever to support their points.

Are there any studies or data on the effectiveness of climatological data when looking at storm paths today? Is the effectiveness decreasing or was it never effective to begin with?

That's like making the statement "one's DNA is highly unlikely to predetermine one's physical characteristics or risk adverse to particular disease or physical limitations..... especially in our brave new world where we can fully control our destiny, choose to eat nothing but tofu and dream about unicorns and rainbows". Gee, I wonder if medicine has done any level of research on THAT STUFF (eh, probably not )

[BYG Jacob]

...climatology...

I'm super interested in this. As far as I can tell, most 'climatological' tropical storm predictions seem useless in a world with changing climate. Water temperatures are different. Patterns are different. Why would the climate be a good indicator of where a current storm is going? I don't follow the logic here at all. It is using a static variable to guess a moving target. It's not going to work.

And where do these people get off suggesting that climate-based historical tracks of hurricanes are an indicator *at all* of where a current storm is going? Is there evidence to support this? It seems to me that it is a lot more likely that a storm in a current position has *never* closely resembled the starting conditions of any storm in history. I would suggest that the people using climatology tracks are being dense on-purpose, as I think there is no evidence whatsoever to support their points.

Are there any studies or data on the effectiveness of climatological data when looking at storm paths today? Is the effectiveness decreasing or was it never effective to begin with?

That's like making the statement "one's DNA is highly unlikely to predetermine one's physical characteristics or risk adverse to particular disease or physical limitations..... especially in our brave new world where we can fully control our destiny, choose to eat nothing but tofu and dream about unicorns and rainbows". Gee, I wonder if medicine has done any level of research on THAT STUFF (eh, probably not )

Except it really isn't, and your anology is wrong.

[jdjaguar]

Is there a chance for the 3rd year in a row for those of us in NE FLA and surrounding areas will have deal with yet another hurricane threat?? And this time a direct or near direct hit. Yikes if yes. I have really come to hate this time of year, even with football season.

If the models keep trending south, unfortunately yes.

Frankly, I am burned out with dealing with storms after Matthew and Irma, back to back.

[Bocadude85]

Is there a chance for the 3rd year in a row for those of us in NE FLA and surrounding areas will have deal with yet another hurricane threat?? And this time a direct or near direct hit. Yikes if yes. I have really come to hate this time of year, even with football season.

If the models keep trending south, unfortunately yes.

Frankly, I am burned out with dealing with storms after Matthew and Irma, back to back.

I would think the southwest shifts will have to be coming to a end, the way the models are showing the ridge displaced to Flo’s northeast is a perfect setup for a Carolina’s hit. Now if the models start showing a more east to west oriented ridge then things could change.