ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Looks like REcon is doing the New Rapid Intensification Flight pattern

They need to. This is exploding!

[NDG]

073130 2015N 08527W 8426 01367 9828 +237 +174 299015 024 029 002 00

[deltadog03]

Looks like REcon is doing the New Rapid Intensification Flight pattern

I haven't seen it update yet, but this latest pass will be interesting for sure.

[StruThiO]

speechless

[NDG]

Michael is surely taking advantage of the deep warm waters of the Yucatan Channel.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like REcon is doing the New Rapid Intensification Flight pattern

I haven't seen it update yet, but this latest pass will be interesting for sure.

yeah, they first started this rapid pass during florence to more accurately measure RI.

however I dont think it was part of their original plan tonight lol

[NotoSans]

I never made the bold statement. People should be ready for anything, anytime, anywhere. And we all know models have weaknesses as well as strengths.

Then you shouldn't have made your original statement. If you want to make statements on here that can cause people unnecessary worry or to feel that they are in no danger when they might be, then we always ask you to include a disclaimer that you are not a meteorologist qualified to issue forecasts. Ok?

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=118012
The new rule no longer requires a disclaimer, and IMO even the latest official forecast does not show any rapid intensification (>30KT/24HRS), so I don’t understand why it would be such a problematic post.

[MississippiWx]

What the heck. A 9mb+ drop in one pass?!?

Edit: Make that 11mb!!

[FireRat]

Dang, I come here to check on Michael and find this animal getting its act together in a hurry, this really is starting to look ugly! I would advise anyone from SW Florida to the Panhandle to pay attention to Michael tomorrow and see what he does, by the looks of it this will likely be an intensifying hurricane tomorrow into Tuesday. It sure is getting that look, that comma/9 shape.

[Aric Dunn]

And that should be plenty of a hurricane upgrade..SFMR is not quite high enough. but hopefully recon stay around for a little bit more I bet they find SFMR

[NDG]

And that should be plenty of a hurricane upgrade..SFMR is not quite high enough. but hopefully recon stay around for a little bit more I bet they find SFMR

Yeah agree, I think they should go ahead with the upgrade at 5 AM so that people start making preparations to call their attention.

[Aric Dunn]

This is pretty fun to watch help place the deep convection right at the time of recon.

[FireRat]

we almost certainly will wake up to hurricane Michael. This escalated quickly wow. Hope y'all in Florida are taking this very seriously, the worst October storms in FL came out of the area Michael is in, been a while since the October monster formed in this prone spot.

[p1nheadlarry]

we almost certainly will wake up to hurricane Michael. This escalated quickly wow. Hope y'all in Florida are taking this very seriously, the worst October storms in FL came out of the area Michael is in, been a while since the October monster formed in this prone spot.

Waking up you say? I don’t know when I’ll be able to fall back asleep.

[Aric Dunn]

Shortwave sat loop this time.

[beoumont]

This thing is kickin' butt this morning. 983 mb, just like that. COMMA. Punctuation mark.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/jRv-fgfLFTk[/youtube]

[johngaltfla]

Intensity projection has always been the biggest problem, either under or over estimating. But when this sucker gets past the Yucatan and into the GOM, aye caramba!

[deltadog03]

Nearly all
of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids.

[robbielyn]

Nearly all
of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids.

Great news for the west coast peninsula.

[Gums]

Yeah, Delta, and it sucks

Here, close to Destin, we were hoping for a Big Bend impact due to low population and lottsa marsh/swamp.

If it slows down, the U.S. wx pattern might help to get Mike headed further east.

Also, we saw Opal and Katrina fade a lot just before impact due to eye replacement cycle. Opal was nearly Cat 5 just hours before it got here, so we only saw about 110 to 120 mph sustained wind.