WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 132 125 117 105 95 88 83 83 77 75 75
V (KT) LAND 135 135 132 125 117 105 95 88 83 83 77 75 75
V (KT) LGEM 135 132 125 118 111 101 93 87 86 89 93 94 94
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 7 3 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 7 3 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 0 0 2 4 4 -1 0 0 -5 4 5
SHEAR DIR 32 106 86 358 336 132 262 131 29 17 310 173 221
SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 132 131 132 134 133 137 140 141 142 143
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.2 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10
700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 49 47 44 40 36 34 37 35 38 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 22 21 22 22 20 20 24 23 23 24
850 MB ENV VOR 45 55 53 43 29 37 52 63 80 91 78 77 82
200 MB DIV 13 28 6 -15 -10 31 -6 11 -6 16 -8 -6 31
700-850 TADV -8 -4 -7 -12 -9 1 4 1 -6 -2 0 -2 0
LAND (KM) 1403 1251 1101 946 793 513 285 324 569 705 882 1097 1304
LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 142.4 143.8 145.2 146.7 148.2 151.2 154.4 157.5 160.6 163.7 166.6 169.2 171.5
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 15 14 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 11 8 11 10 5 3 13 19 24 33 44 40 25

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -21. -33. -44. -54. -61. -67. -71. -73. -71.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. -0. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. 3. 2. 2. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -10. -18. -29. -40. -47. -52. -52. -58. -60. -60.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.1 142.4

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 992.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.5% 4.6% 3.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 46 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Chris90]

The people who save all their enthusiasm for the ATL are really missing out with this one. Hector has been providing some of the best satellite imagery so far in 2018, and now we've got the added benefit of recon data. He's reminding me somewhat of Irma last year with the beautiful symmetry he currently has. Interested to see what the next full pass finds. I think they'll find definitive Cat 5 winds before this mission is over.

[Sciencerocks]

I wonder why it weakens? Dry air?

The ship model pretty much says that shear should remain below 10 knots throughout the next 120 hours and sst's start going up after 72 hours. Yet it takes the cyclone form 135 knots to 75 knots in that time. If this shear and track is followed I seriously doubt this storm will be less then 85-90 knots within the next 120 hours. More in line with the LGEM.

[NDG]

The good news for Hawaii is that Hector continues this size no hurricane force winds should reach the Big Island, per the recon hurricane force winds only go out 40-50 miles from the eye. IMO.

How about TS winds?

In the NW quadrant they only went out 75 miles from the eye, at the most.

On the NE quadrant so far the recon is finding winds a little farther, around 90 miles from the eye.

[NDG]

I wonder why it weakens? Dry air?

The ship model pretty much says that shear should remain below 10 knots throughout the next 120 hours and sst's start going up after 72 hours. Yet it takes the cyclone form 135 knots to 75 knots in that time. If this shear and track is followed I seriously doubt this storm will be less then 85-90 knots within the next 120 hours. More in line with the LGEM.

Yes, drier air, from near 50% average humidity down to the mid 30s% range in the 700-500mb column.

[Yellow Evan]

984
URPN15 KNHC 061910
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 35 20180806
190200 1658N 14131W 6973 03174 0070 +103 +061 123043 043 024 000 00
190230 1700N 14131W 6958 03192 0067 +106 +054 120043 044 024 000 00
190300 1702N 14131W 6971 03175 0069 +104 +054 121044 044 023 000 00
190330 1704N 14132W 6968 03180 0068 +105 +047 120045 045 024 000 00
190400 1706N 14132W 6971 03176 0066 +107 +040 121045 045 024 000 00
190430 1708N 14132W 6970 03178 0066 +110 +034 121044 044 025 000 00
190500 1710N 14133W 6970 03179 0068 +110 +027 118043 044 025 000 03
190530 1711N 14135W 6970 03180 0068 +110 +026 115042 042 024 000 00
190600 1712N 14137W 6970 03178 0068 +109 +026 114042 042 025 000 00
190630 1712N 14139W 6938 03218 0071 +103 +034 114042 042 027 000 00
190700 1712N 14141W 6776 03421 0074 +095 +020 113043 044 027 000 00
190730 1712N 14143W 6600 03641 0075 +081 +019 114043 044 027 000 03
190800 1712N 14146W 6418 03877 0072 +070 +009 111042 043 027 000 00
190830 1712N 14148W 6231 04115 0075 +053 +007 113042 042 026 000 00
190900 1712N 14150W 6048 04360 0065 +041 -009 111040 041 026 000 00
190930 1712N 14152W 5877 04572 0047 +027 -014 106039 040 027 000 00
191000 1712N 14155W 5732 04779 0050 +013 -010 105037 037 026 000 00
191030 1712N 14157W 5717 04796 0052 +010 -012 106038 038 025 000 03
191100 1712N 14200W 5719 04795 0055 +009 -011 107038 039 024 000 00
191130 1712N 14202W 5717 04793 0054 +007 -012 106038 038 025 000 00
$$

[Kingarabian]

I wonder why it weakens? Dry air?

The ship model pretty much says that shear should remain below 10 knots throughout the next 120 hours and sst's start going up after 72 hours. Yet it takes the cyclone form 135 knots to 75 knots in that time. If this shear and track is followed I seriously doubt this storm will be less then 85-90 knots within the next 120 hours.

Models are all out to lunch in regards to Hector.

[Kingarabian]

How about TS winds?

In the NW quadrant they only went out 75 miles from the eye, at the most.

On the NE quadrant so far the recon is finding winds a little farther, around 90 miles from the eye.

Not good if it maintains its intensity and shifts closer to the Big Island. Puna area is already struggling (some parts devastated) due to the ongoing Volcanic eruption. When Iselle made landfall over Puna, the estimated damage was near $80 million dollars.

[NotSparta]

I wonder why it weakens? Dry air?

The ship model pretty much says that shear should remain below 10 knots throughout the next 120 hours and sst's start going up after 72 hours. Yet it takes the cyclone form 135 knots to 75 knots in that time. If this shear and track is followed I seriously doubt this storm will be less then 85-90 knots within the next 120 hours.

Models are all out to lunch in regards to Hector.

They are correct wrt the dry air, but their handling of the intensity is not so far. Hector is supposed to weaken by now, but it hasn't yet.

[Yellow Evan]

215
URPN15 KNHC 061920
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 36 20180806
191200 1712N 14204W 5717 04800 0058 +005 -012 104039 040 026 000 00
191230 1712N 14207W 5717 04794 0054 +008 -013 103039 040 026 000 00
191300 1712N 14209W 5717 04798 0059 +006 -013 102040 040 026 000 00
191330 1712N 14211W 5718 04796 0054 +009 -013 100040 041 026 000 00
191400 1713N 14214W 5717 04797 0059 +006 -014 101042 043 025 000 03
191430 1713N 14216W 5718 04790 0062 +004 -016 099042 043 025 000 00
191500 1714N 14218W 5716 04797 0063 +005 -024 097042 043 027 000 00
191530 1714N 14221W 5717 04797 0066 +005 -027 096042 043 027 000 00
191600 1715N 14223W 5717 04792 0063 +004 -023 096042 042 026 000 00
191630 1715N 14225W 5717 04795 0069 +000 -020 097042 043 026 000 03
191700 1716N 14228W 5718 04796 0062 +003 -016 098042 043 025 000 00
191730 1716N 14230W 5717 04796 0061 +005 -014 098042 042 025 000 00
191800 1717N 14232W 5717 04789 0061 +005 -013 098042 042 025 000 00
191830 1718N 14234W 5717 04795 0055 +006 -012 093041 041 025 000 00
191900 1718N 14237W 5717 04785 0054 +007 -013 093040 041 025 000 00
191930 1719N 14239W 5717 04792 0058 +005 -012 094040 041 026 000 00
192000 1719N 14241W 5718 04792 0060 +004 -010 097041 042 026 000 00
192030 1720N 14244W 5717 04795 0060 +004 -012 098040 041 026 000 00
192100 1720N 14246W 5716 04796 0060 +005 -013 099041 041 025 000 00
192130 1721N 14248W 5717 04793 0059 +005 -011 100041 042 026 000 00
$$

[Yellow Evan]

Looks to be turning back.

206
URPN15 KNHC 061930
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 37 20180806
192200 1721N 14251W 5714 04797 0062 +005 -011 098041 041 027 000 00
192230 1722N 14253W 5717 04793 0055 +007 -012 096041 042 027 000 00
192300 1722N 14255W 5717 04796 0046 +012 -019 093041 042 027 000 00
192330 1723N 14257W 5721 04789 0052 +010 -023 093041 042 026 000 00
192400 1723N 14300W 5718 04794 0055 +010 -033 093041 041 027 000 03
192430 1724N 14302W 5717 04793 0058 +010 -046 093041 042 027 000 00
192500 1725N 14304W 5717 04791 0056 +010 -034 090039 040 027 000 00
192530 1725N 14307W 5717 04795 0056 +010 -035 088038 039 027 000 00
192600 1726N 14309W 5715 04803 0054 +010 -018 088039 039 024 000 00
192630 1726N 14311W 5722 04789 0056 +010 -040 089039 040 025 000 00
192700 1727N 14314W 5716 04801 0052 +010 -019 089040 040 026 000 00
192730 1727N 14316W 5718 04795 0059 +007 -021 089040 041 026 000 00
192800 1728N 14318W 5716 04793 0070 +001 -035 090039 040 025 000 00
192830 1728N 14320W 5717 04797 0067 +004 -046 088039 040 025 000 00
192900 1729N 14323W 5717 04802 0056 +009 -044 084036 039 024 000 00
192930 1729N 14325W 5587 04997 0067 -000 -030 083036 037 024 000 00
193000 1730N 14327W 5467 05175 0264 -005 -058 082036 036 022 000 03
193030 1730N 14329W 5356 05341 0276 -014 -044 088036 037 023 000 00
193100 1731N 14331W 5244 05509 0288 -019 -065 089037 037 023 000 00
193130 1731N 14334W 5129 05686 0301 -029 -081 081034 036 024 000 00
$$

[Eric Webb]

In the NW quadrant they only went out 75 miles from the eye, at the most.

On the NE quadrant so far the recon is finding winds a little farther, around 90 miles from the eye.

Not good if it maintains its intensity and shifts closer to the Big Island. Puna area is already struggling (some parts devastated) due to the ongoing Volcanic eruption. When Iselle made landfall over Puna, the estimated damage was near $80 million dollars.

I don’t see Hector hitting Hawaii directly at this point, even if it got close channeling flow off the mountains would deflect the storm southward slightly if it got too close.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder why it weakens? Dry air?

The ship model pretty much says that shear should remain below 10 knots throughout the next 120 hours and sst's start going up after 72 hours. Yet it takes the cyclone form 135 knots to 75 knots in that time. If this shear and track is followed I seriously doubt this storm will be less then 85-90 knots within the next 120 hours.

Models are all out to lunch in regards to Hector.

They are correct wrt the dry air, but their handling of the intensity is not so far. Hector is supposed to weaken by now, but it hasn't yet.

It shouldn't be dry air that will hinder it. Yes the air is dry, but the system is annular. You need some shear to initiate the intrusion. Due to shear being very low, and the system being a near Cat.5 thus having an established anti-cyclone, it'll be tough to knock it off its stride.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon is turning back. No Cat 5 most likely. Don't count on it staying till 0530z. A bit of a choke job since they likely would have found a Cat 5 in either the N or NE.

[Kingarabian]

Recon is turning back. No Cat 5 most likely. Don't count on it staying till 0530z. A bit of a choke job since they likely would have found a Cat 5 in either the N or NE.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/5VK4vF2.jpg[img]

Better safe than sorry. Looks like the first center fix was pretty hard since the dropsonde itself had 30kt of wind.

[NotSparta]

Models are all out to lunch in regards to Hector.

They are correct wrt the dry air, but their handling of the intensity is not so far. Hector is supposed to weaken by now, but it hasn't yet.

It shouldn't be dry air that will hinder it. Yes the air is dry, but the system is annular. You need some shear to initiate the intrusion. Due to shear being very low, and the system being a near Cat.5 thus having an established anti-cyclone, it'll be tough to knock it off its stride.

That's why the models weaken Hector, but it hasn't yet due to light shear & annular structure

[wxmann_91]

I wonder why it weakens? Dry air?

The ship model pretty much says that shear should remain below 10 knots throughout the next 120 hours and sst's start going up after 72 hours. Yet it takes the cyclone form 135 knots to 75 knots in that time. If this shear and track is followed I seriously doubt this storm will be less then 85-90 knots within the next 120 hours. More in line with the LGEM.

On the detailed SHIPS output the SST contribution (= MPI - initial intensity) is responsible for most of the intensity decrease. The penalty is high because Hector is at such a high initial intensity.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1026554692652818432

[Eric Webb]

There’s still a lot of uncertainty regarding the long term future of Hector as it approaches the dateline. Some guidance has shifted in the direction of the storm going out to sea and dissipating sooner by day 12 or so but Hector may still be able to beat Ioke’s ACE record without getting stuck under the ridge east of Japan, if it takes that route not out of the realm of possibility Hector accrues triple digit ACE.

[hurricanes1234]

Are you ready for the perfect storm? ~ Katy Perry