ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion
LLC is really weak. It's pooping out convection that doesn't seem to have that swirl to it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Yeah, no wonder models are everywhere/nowhere with this... it's practically nothing at the moment and anything can happen in the Western Caribbean down the road. Not gonna be surprised if a 2.0 happens.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Although, if my eyes aren't playing tricks on me, the last few frames seem to show some sort of banding occuring near the center.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of Isaac.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is anticipated over the
next couple of days with a turn to the west-northwest possible by
late Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, and be
near or south of Jamaica early next week.
NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.
Isaac is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday and
degenerate into a wave on Monday. However this is an uncertain
prediction.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1002
mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across
southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south-
central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and most
of Jamaica except for the eastern portion of Jamaica where rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches and maximum amounts of 6 inches are
possible. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the
maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen
to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with
vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and
Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is
elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the
plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of
strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds
showing no circulation were unrepresentative.
The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.
Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the
weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a
weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system
would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving
closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the
forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and
should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the
intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of Isaac.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is anticipated over the
next couple of days with a turn to the west-northwest possible by
late Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, and be
near or south of Jamaica early next week.
NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.
Isaac is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday and
degenerate into a wave on Monday. However this is an uncertain
prediction.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1002
mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to
3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across
southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with
maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the
northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south-
central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and most
of Jamaica except for the eastern portion of Jamaica where rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches and maximum amounts of 6 inches are
possible. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the
maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen
to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with
vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and
Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is
elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the
plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of
strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds
showing no circulation were unrepresentative.
The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.
Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the
weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a
weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system
would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving
closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the
forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and
should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the
intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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- meriland29
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What? A TS again after so close to looking like a wave as of recent. ...well Ill be dipped...
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR...
He's just like the rest of us.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
isaac had a good day, he is cheating death...the models have had a hard time completely killing off the energy so not a huge surprise he still has a shot
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- AnnularCane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Craters wrote:SoupBone wrote:meriland29 wrote:He's the little engine that could(n't). He's trying to desperately cling to life by firing convection, but he's still moving at 16mph. He's not dead (yet), Jim.
Or, converesly, Isaac speaking for himself: "I'm not dead yet! I don't want to go on the cart!"
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPatfgoNBRo)
Guess he was right.
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I love this comment from the discussion, which is basically NHC's way of saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The reality of the situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see if we gain any confidence.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Its appearance with persistent convection for over 24 hours and redeveloping banding is very impressive; not surprised it's easily at tropical storm intensity again but just wondered if the LLC was closed. If it stays closed it might well hang on decently well, but it's gonna need to slow down a little to stay closed
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Very interesting snippet of discussion by the NHC on the intensity. Its going to be interesting how this evolves. I don't feel so bad because looks like they can't figure out either why the models dissipate this.
The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Thank you AutoPenalti for posting! Isaac might be trying to wrap up in that image. Going to need to watch it. Euro shows a trough at 120 hours causing Isaac to cross Cuba and get into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it shows a ridge building which would push Isaac NW. The GOM and Caribbean islands need to watch it.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/KR3yvzexEZKaWuCdA
https://photos.app.goo.gl/KR3yvzexEZKaWuCdA
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LOL,
They upgraded to it to a tropical storm and found it closed. It looks the best it has looked since 50 west.
No longer being sheared
Moving into a more favorable environment
Ship, LGEM, and TVCN all show strengthening...The main intensity models on that chart.
I wouldn't stop watching this.
They upgraded to it to a tropical storm and found it closed. It looks the best it has looked since 50 west.
No longer being sheared
Moving into a more favorable environment
Ship, LGEM, and TVCN all show strengthening...The main intensity models on that chart.
I wouldn't stop watching this.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Just a hunch, but GFS and Euro may not be taking into account the possible reformation of the LLC to it's South. Maybe by the next run we see some adjustments?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
18z SHIPS guidance text, for reference...
Ignore the weird "N/A"s, etc, as the LGEM's "DIS" after 72 hours makes no sense to me.
FWIW, both SHIPS and LGEM intensity models bump this to a hurricane. For me, all depends on what that shear does in the western part of the Caribbean.
Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 53 57 64 68 73 78 83 90
V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 53 57 64 68 73 78 83 90
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 52 59 68 77 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 7 7 9 10 4 11 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 4 7 4 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 25 37 38 41 63 32 19 351 353 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 149 147 147 154 161 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 146 144 141 141 149 155 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 52 54 57 56 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 41 45 46 49 29 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 11 0 13 23 11 24 4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 4 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 301 306 281 240 248 258 167 109 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.9 70.1 71.1 72.2 74.1 76.2 78.3 80.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 56 58 64 66 66 89 50 76 64 9999 9999 9999 9999
Ignore the weird "N/A"s, etc, as the LGEM's "DIS" after 72 hours makes no sense to me.
FWIW, both SHIPS and LGEM intensity models bump this to a hurricane. For me, all depends on what that shear does in the western part of the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HurricaneBelle wrote:I love this comment from the discussion, which is basically NHC's way of saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯The reality of the situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see if we gain any confidence.
I was trying to guess who wrote that before looking at the name. I went with Lix, but I can totally see that being Eric Blake. He'll have more zingers in the future I think.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
On high resolution imagery it appears that there is some spin and banding near the center but it’s being pushed quickly. It’s speed may be slowing as you get the typical trade wind piling in the western Caribbean.
On high resolution imagery it appears that there is some spin and banding near the center but it’s being pushed quickly. It’s speed may be slowing as you get the typical trade wind piling in the western Caribbean.
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- meriland29
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Of he ends up surviving the dead zone and gets into the Gulf (and that's a big if)...what are the conditions supposed to be like there by the time he would get there in terms of sheer, water temps, etc?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:isaac had a good day, he is cheating death...the models have had a hard time completely killing off the energy so not a huge surprise he still has a shot
hes tryin to live his best life on his caribbean cruise
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"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"
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