WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

15W JONGDARI 180727 0000 25.0N 142.5E WPAC 90 958

[Yellow Evan]

15W JONGDARI 180727 0000 25.0N 142.5E WPAC 90 958

Glad to see JTWC has come to their senses.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Tokyo likely spared and peak nudge upward to a Cat 4.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM EAST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A HIGHLY
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING. A 270014 MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND SPIRAL BANDING
TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), SO THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE T5.0, SO THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
PRESENCE OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-
CORE LOW TO THE NORTH OF TY 15W HAS DRIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
TY 15W, WHICH HAS OPENED UP AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
ALLOWING RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO COMMENCE. HOWEVER, IN THE LAST 3
HOURS THE INTENSIFICATION HAS TEMPORARILY LEVELED OFF. TY 15W HAS
BEEN STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW
AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED BY 20 KNOTS TO
REFLECT THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
BEFORE TAU 36 IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT.
B. TY 15W IS ENTERING A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS
THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-CORE LOW TO THE NORTH OF TY 15W SLIDES
WESTWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AT 12 TO 24 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 115 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24, THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TY 15W TO THE SOUTH SIDE, BECOMING PARTIALLY
ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF TY 15W. AS IT DOES SO, THE STEERING
FLOW AROUND TY 15W WILL SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT, WHICH WILL
DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. ONCE THIS OCCURS, THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, SUBSIDENCE, AND BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD-
CORE LOW WILL DYNAMICALLY SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICALLY DEGRADE THE
STRUCTURE OF TY 15W. THUS, AFTER TAU 24, STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST. TY 15W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN JAPAN AROUND TAU 48 AND
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO SURFACE FRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH LAND
INTERACTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TURN TOWARD THE WEST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST
THROUGH SOUTHERN JAPAN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A PASSING WEAKNESS
IN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN BECAUSE OF THE PROJECTED
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE SOUTH OF TY 15W.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
WEST, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION
AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE EXERTED BY THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
LOW, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

It's definitely leveled off for now. Undercutting shear has been mentioned as a possibility. The 00Z RJAO sounding doesn't definitively deny its existence, but if there is undercutting, it's only light in the 300 mb layer.



I can't help but wonder if the core is changing structurally slightly, perhaps reorganizing a little larger.

[Twisted-core]

15W JONGDARI 180727 0000 25.0N 142.5E WPAC 90 958

No expert but doubt this is 90kts now. I would go 70-75 max.


https://imgur.com/Q1NaPNA

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07270340
SATCON: MSLP = 957 hPa MSW = 84 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 84.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 86 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 195 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 969 hPa 72 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL270440
CIMSS AMSU: 965 hPa 76 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07261833
ATMS: 950.7 hPa 95.3 knots Date: 07270340
SSMIS: 950.7 hPa 95.3 knots Date: 07270340
CIRA ATMS: hPa knots Date:

[NotoSans]

Jongdari most likely has peaked. Satellite presentation suggests that it is now being hampered by shear.

[euro6208]

A very small eye trying to peel through.

[Twisted-core]

I suspect maybe JONGDARI has been dealing with some mid- level dry air intrusion working its in.https://imgur.com/G6LiQe0

https://imgur.com/pfCzuk8

2018JUL27 084000 5.3 4.6 4.0 4.4 EYE 3.400 3.400 3.500 3.817 4.000 5.300 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.98 4.00 4.80 49 22 0 0 0 10

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUL 2018 Time : 084000 UTC
Lat : 27:15:36 N Lon : 144:22:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 961.9mb/ 74.6kt

[euro6208]

Already a deadly season for Japan. It's going to affect an area that was devastated earlier this month from flooding that has killed 225 people so far...

WDPN35 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TY 15W HAS A COMPACT CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS ALSO
AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
270551Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY IS
HEDGED ABOVE AN ADT CI OF T4.4 (75 KNOTS) AND BELOW A 270552Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 86 KNOTS AND A CI OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TY 15W HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS FEEDING INTO THE DEEP LAYERED LOW, LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO STRONG. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 30 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
TY 15W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 15W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE NORTH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NER. AFTER TAU 12, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE DEEP LAYERED LOW TO THE
WEST WILL STEER TY 15W TO THE NORTHWEST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
TY 15W WILL EXPERIENCE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, TY 15W WILL TRACK AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW AND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. TY
15W WILL TRACK TO THE WEST BY TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
STR TO THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72.
THERE IS A 160NM SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY TAU 36, THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST WHILE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW, WHICH AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS A RESULT
OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 205NM BY TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 270922

A. TYPHOON 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 27/0900Z

C. 27.26N

D. 144.47E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A
4.5 WHILE PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0341Z 26.20N 143.63E ATMS
27/0356Z 25.92N 143.57E GPMI
27/0403Z 25.97N 143.68E AMS2
27/0449Z 26.35N 143.70E SSMI
27/0551Z 26.65N 143.87E MMHS
27/0727Z 26.80N 143.92E SSMS
27/0749Z 26.98N 144.15E WIND


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 270947
TCSWNP

A. 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 27.2N

D. 144.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/SSMIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE IS EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0551Z 26.7N 143.7E AMSU
27/0727Z 26.9N 144.1E SSMIS
27/0749Z 27.1N 144.2E WINDSAT


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/arakencloud/status/1022686992193089537




Translated to english.

Since typhoon No. 12's path is unusual and topic, I studied the typhoon coming from the east toward Honshu in 1951 and beyond. Then, besides the 10th issue of 2016, No. 6 of 1983 and No. 14 of 1966 were westernward paths. Even in regions that have not experienced many stormy weather due to typhoons, it will be too rough, so check early arrangements! Please beware of typhoon disasters strictly.

Very rare. Jongdari will just be the 4th TC to do so...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1022088005798916096




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1022098539692740608

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1022282463173849088

[euro6208]

Up to 95 knots...

15W JONGDARI 180727 1200 28.3N 144.6E WPAC 95 948

[1900hurricane]

Clearly weakening some at this point.

[wxman57]

Clearly weakening some at this point.

I agree, steadily weakening now. Not sure it will still have typhoon strength wind at landfall.