WPAC: JEBI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Peak near Cat 5...

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Typhoon Jebi
ATCF BT
25W JEBI 180829 0600 17.1N 152.3E WPAC 65 986

JMA
TY 1821 (Jebi)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 29 August 2018
<Analysis at 06 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°20' (17.3°)
E152°20' (152.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)

[Twisted-core]

will be interesting to see how this system responds over night to the atmosphere cooling

[mrbagyo]

JMA - 70 knots

TY 1821 (Jebi)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 29 August 2018
<Analysis at 09 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°20' (17.3°)
E152°00' (152.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)

[mrbagyo]

25W JEBI 180829 1200 17.3N 151.1E WPAC 70 985

[Cunxi Huang]

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 6
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 1.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5

JMA 5.0/5.0. Likely will give 75-80 kt for 18z advisory.

[mrbagyo]

90 knots now on BT

25W JEBI 180829 1800 17.3N 150.3E WPAC 90 969

[Cunxi Huang]

TY 1821 (Jebi)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 29 August 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°25' (17.4°)
E150°30' (150.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 30 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35' (17.6°)
E148°25' (148.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 30 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50' (17.8°)
E146°00' (146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N19°30' (19.5°)
E141°05' (141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N22°25' (22.4°)
E137°35' (137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

Nice. JMA 80 kt, 960 hpa.

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Eye starts to appear.

[Twisted-core]

000
ATPQ40 PGUM 291456
SIMGUM

SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1256 AM CHST THU AUG 30 2018

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180.

TYPHOON JEBI (25W) IS 355 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 17N150E
AND MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NEAR THE CENTER
WITHIN 105 MILES OF 17N151E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN EAST...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JEBI WITHIN 70
MILES OF A LINE FROM 20N153E TO 16N154E TO 13N152E TO 13N146E. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON JEBI...SEE BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ31 PGUM.

A DEVELOPING MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR MINDANAO
ACROSS 7N130E AND THROUGH A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR YAP AT
10N136E TO END AT TYPHOON JEBI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTHWEST OF KOROR...SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM 4N130E TO 1N135E. PATCHY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF KOROR BETWEEN 9N AND 14N FROM 130E TO 135E...AND
ALSO SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK WITHIN 90 MILES OF A LINE FROM EQ142E TO
5N149E.

A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH OF POHNPEI AT
EQ158E TO END NORTH OF ENEWETAK ATOLL AT 14N163E. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT NEAR POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS WITHIN 130 MILES OF A LINE FROM EQ152E
TO 8N163E TO 17N163E.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REACHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST OF MAJURO
AT EQ169E THROUGH A LOW CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND AT 16N175E
TO BEYOND 180 AT 22N. THESE FEATURES ARE COUPLING WITH CONVERGING
TRADE WINDS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WITHIN 210 MILES OF A LINE FROM
7N173E TO 15N168E.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND AT 23N162E
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21N
AND 23N FROM 161E TO 164E.

$$

CHAN

https://imgur.com/VRWhd1s




https://imgur.com/TtGNUTY

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08291842
SATCON: MSLP = 956 hPa MSW = 99 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 97.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 96 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 170 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

https://www.hurricanezone.net/westpacif ... tions.html

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300108
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON JEBI (25W) Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP252018
1108 AM ChST Thu Aug 30 2018

...TYPHOON JEBI GETTING STRONGER...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan in the northern CNMI.

Destructive winds of 74 mph or more are expected within the next
12 hours.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...17.5N 149.0E

About 205 miles east of Alamagan
About 215 miles east of Pagan
About 235 miles east-southeast of Agrihan
About 270 miles northeast of Saipan
About 285 miles northeast of Tinian
About 345 miles northeast of Rota
About 395 miles northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...105 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 12 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...the center of Typhoon Jebi was located
near Latitude 17.5 degrees North and Longitude 149.0 degrees East.
Typhoon Jebi is moving toward the west at 12 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight increase in forward speed
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain 105 mph. Typhoon Jebi is forecast
to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
25 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 155 miles to the northeast and up to 100 miles
elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM this afternoon followed by an intermediate advisory
at 500 PM this evening.

$$

Stanko

[1900hurricane]

The eye is taking a little bit longer than I would have thought to clear out.

[euro6208]

Peaks at 130 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TY 25W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (40 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS FROM 50 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 150-NM
DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND BANDING FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 291743Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS), LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 291143Z ASCAT IMAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 25W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48,
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN POLEWARD. DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS (ICNW) AS WELL AS THE 24-HOUR AND 36-HOUR RAPID INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AND HWRF. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 170NM AT TAU 72. BASED ON THE LOW
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS TO
BE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 120. AFTER PEAKING AT 130
KNOTS AT TAU 72, THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO 110 KTS BY
TAU 120 AS VWS INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND SST COOLS TO 27-28C. HOWEVER,
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SHOULD
OFFSET OR AT LEAST LESSEN THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH ALIGNS WELL
WITH THE ECMWF, JGSM, GALWEM, AND GFS FORECAST TRACKS. HOWEVER, THE
MODEL TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE HWRF,
COAMPS-GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAKE A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN
WHILE THE NAVGEM MAKES THE TURN MORE GRADUALLY. BASED ON THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY (600NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120), THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

25W JEBI 180830 0000 17.6N 149.1E WPAC 95 965

95 knots


Structure reminds me a bit of Hurricane Matthew when it was near the Guajira Peninsula

[Highteeld]

The eye is taking a little bit longer than I would have thought to clear out.

Seems to be clearing out now.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TY 25W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (40 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS FROM 55 TO 95 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A
DEVELOPING EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. A 292047Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 25W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36,
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN POLEWARD. DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS (ICNW) AS WELL AS THE 24-HOUR AND 36-HOUR RAPID INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH A SPREAD OF 210NM AT TAU 72. BASED ON THE LOW UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HIGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS TO
BE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY WILL
WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS VWS INCREASES SLIGHTLY
AND SST COOLS TO 28C, HOWEVER, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SHOULD OFFSET OR AT LEAST LESSEN THE NEGATIVE
IMPACTS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE ECMWF, JGSM, GALWEM, UKMO,
HWRF AND GFS FORECAST TRACKS. HOWEVER, THE MODEL TRACK SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE COAMPS-GFS, AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MAKE A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN. NAVGEM ERRONEOUSLY
TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BREAK IN THE STR SIMILAR
TO THE OTHER MODELS. BASED ON THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY (660NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120), THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN