ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[boca]

Just north of 90L the shear increases as of right now.

[slamdaddy]

Even if I lose the bet it’s beer so to me it’s all good.

Might as well knock back some cold ones as we're rained in

Burgers on a stovetop or griddle can be just as good as they are off a grill

Maybe go to your closest VA Cemetary and pay homage to those whom we honor for Memorial Day.

I am sure they dont mind a good brew or two and some good chow in honor of them prior to their day.

[northjaxpro]

Another look at the FV3 GFS. The model can redeem itself if it ends up taking this track. Looks like it is about on top of a Tampa at 54 hours.

https://s7.postimg.cc/x8tvnndqj/fv3p_ms ... watl_9.png

Every model suite that goes by, 6 (or 12) hours at a time, especially entering the 48 hour range, the more probable that the models hone in on a general solution. From the perspective of the Florida peninsula, I'm not enjoying the 12z and 18z models today. I'm not sure the models have more flips left in them. Then again, it alleviates a flood threat to the Central Gulf Coast.

Yeah, I can not wait to see next set of runs at 00Z and 6Z GFS. The UK Met run is discomforting for the Florida peninsula with the rain potential. As discussed earlier. the east shift of the UK Met and the ICON also has me really curious as well.

Lots of things still up in the air with 90L this late in the period. One critical thing though is certain: Shear is still very strong and for at least the next 24-36 hours, I don't really see condiitions getting even at least marginally conducive for significant development.

[TheStormExpert]

So it seems there are two possible outcomes with the future of 90L. It, 1) Goes East towards the Florida peninsula and stays a weak sheared rainmaker. Or, 2) It goes west towards Louisiana and the northern Gulf Coast POTENTIALLY stalling a bit either just onshore or offshore and could be a slightly more significant system.

It seems that after showing option #2 this afternoon most models have gone towards option #1 which the GFS has been advertising ever since the Euro and other models jumped onboard. Speaking of the Euro, it’ll sure be interesting to see what it shows on its 00z run overnight tonight.

[northjaxpro]

So it seems there are two possible outcomes with the future of 90L. It, 1) Goes East towards the Florida peninsula and stays a weak sheared rainmaker. Or, 2) It goes west towards Louisiana and the northern Gulf Coast POTENTIALLY stalling a bit either just onshore or offshore and could be a slightly more significant system.

It seems that after showing option #2 this afternoon most models have gone towards option #1 which the GFS has been advertising ever since the Euro and other models jumped onboard. Speaking of the Euro, it’ll sure be interesting to see what it shows on its 00z run overnight tonight.

I agree with you on all you stated above.

[Kazmit]

The models could switch in between those two outcomes until 90L has a clear center. I wouldn't be surprised if they all started showing the more west option again tomorrow.

[Dylan]

0z NAM coming in stronger. Already down to 995mb in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night.

[TheStormExpert]

0z NAM coming in stronger. Already down to 995mb in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night.

Wouldn’t trust the NAM for anything tropical. But could this be a trend setter for the upcoming 00z runs tonight?

[Alyono]

if this goes to the east, it likely will be ejected from the monsoon trough. The models that show this generally show the trough itself spinning into another storm in early June. if it goes more to the west, it likely will be the monsoon trough itself developing into a TC, which should end development chances in the Caribbean for a while

[Evil Jeremy]

0z NAM coming in stronger. Already down to 995mb in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night.

Wouldn’t trust the NAM for anything tropical. But could this be a trend setter for the upcoming 00z runs tonight?

Agreed on not trusting it for Tropics. That said, it has 90L a decent chunk NE (or NNE) of it's 18z run at 54 hours.

[Steve]

0z NAM coming in stronger. Already down to 995mb in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night.

Wouldn’t trust the NAM for anything tropical. But could this be a trend setter for the upcoming 00z runs tonight?

He’s a pro-met. He’s going to look at the tools as they come in. As noted plenty of times, Harvey proved the NAM is always worth a look. Whether you think it should be discounted on a particular run or solution is up to you.

Also this NAM run out to 69 is much faster. It’s not appreciably different from other runs as far as location (maybe a bit west of the consensus), but that’s up near the coast on Sunday.

[toad strangler]

if this goes to the east, it likely will be ejected from the monsoon trough. The models that show this generally show the trough itself spinning into another storm in early June. if it goes more to the west, it likely will be the monsoon trough itself developing into a TC, which should end development chances in the Caribbean for a while

Man, that’s an interesting spread of down the road effects...

[Dylan]

0z NAM coming in stronger. Already down to 995mb in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night.

Wouldn’t trust the NAM for anything tropical. But could this be a trend setter for the upcoming 00z runs tonight?

I'm well aware that the NAM is a mesoscale model, and that it's not recommended for tropical cyclone forecasting, thanks. Considering all of the volatility with the guidance, we need all of the help we can get. And honestly, the NAM has been putting out much more reasonable solutions than the GFS, for better or worse.

Not to mention, with it being a mesoscale model, it may be able to pick up on smaller mechanisms within the cyclone that the lower resolution models can't. It's at the very least worth peeking at for a hint on what the 0z guidance might do. There is some value there, hence why it's still operational.

[DestinHurricane]

With shear increasing and more failure to organize the next STWO should bring clances down

[Ian2401]

With shear increasing and more failure to organize the next STWO should bring clances down

I doubt it. 90L still has near universal model support that it will develop into something. 90L was also never supposed to develop today, I think the earliest we could see any development out of this system is tomorrow night, but that still might be a little early.

[Steve]

With shear increasing and more failure to organize the next STWO should bring clances down

Watch Levi for the evolution.

[Dylan]

0z NAM with a 979mb hurricane making landfall near Port Sulphur from the ESE! Pushing Cat 2!

[SunnyThoughts]

Dylan, How much of a change from the last run of the NAM is this run? Farther west and stronger? Or just stronger?

[AdamFirst]

The NAM is slightly east from the last run. Not by much, but slightly.

[cycloneye]

This Tweet from Philippe Papin was made Thursday afternoon but is still relevant hours later as nothing dramatic has occured.

@pppapin
The broad circulation center of #90L is nearly stationary over the #Yucatan this afternoon.

Key thing to watch is the potential for a mesovortex to develop under convection to the NE. Both the GFS/ECMWF hint that downshear reformation of the llvl vortex may occur prior to #TCG.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/999755236615995394