ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#821 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:01 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:more stronger it get and nw will good for us will go out to see


I've often heard this repeated, so I'll ask any of the mets here, is this actually true?

I believe that a stronger hurricane tends to follow a different steering pattern...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#822 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:03 pm

18z GFS hours 72-96:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#823 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:05 pm

Moving NNW at 96..
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#824 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:06 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Moving N at 96..


still wnw to maybe nw
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#825 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:07 pm

No escape this run
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#826 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:08 pm

This modeling is starting to worry me a little here in Wilmington, NC. It is not a good look for us. Ridge sliding off NE coast at hour 108 it appears. SMH.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#827 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:09 pm

Latest run a bit south of the previous one so far.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#828 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:09 pm

"Nope", said the ridge...

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#829 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:10 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:more stronger it get and nw will good for us will go out to see


I've often heard this repeated, so I'll ask any of the mets here, is this actually true?

I believe that a stronger hurricane tends to follow a different steering pattern...


quick explanation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOcrHOc23N4
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#830 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:10 pm

GFS hours 96-120:
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#831 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:10 pm

back west moving at 120 hours. and about 200 miles south of 12z
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#832 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:16 pm

Ridging looks a bit stronger compared to 12z
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#833 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:17 pm

Still moving west at hour 138.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#834 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:17 pm

Here is your daily reminder for the GFS model:

1) It tends to overintensify cyclones at subtropical latitude

2) It tends to underestimate the ridge

These two tendencies are very common in the WPAC as well, where GFS frequently produces sub-900mb typhoons over 25N.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#835 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:17 pm

18z GFS hours 120-144:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#836 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:18 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:This modeling is starting to worry me a little here in Wilmington, NC. It is not a good look for us. Ridge sliding off NE coast at hour 108 it appears. SMH.

Yes, all eyes focused on 500mb contour lines. Lots of time to go though, but the synoptic setup has my attention.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#837 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:18 pm

About a 200+ mile difference from the 12Z

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#838 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:20 pm

Moving WNW towards the ridge.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#839 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:21 pm

Ridge is stronger this run. Is this the beginning of west shifts toward the UKMET?

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#840 Postby ava_ati » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:23 pm

All I know is this run ain't going back out to sea
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