ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1049349020903256066

[cycloneye]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/16:51:20Z
B. 21.49 deg N 085.06 deg W
C. 850 mb 1242 m
D. 978 mb
E. 195 deg 4 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. C34
H. 56 kt
I. 141 deg 23 nm 16:43:30Z
J. 221 deg 70 kt
K. 142 deg 22 nm 16:44:00Z
L. 54 kt
M. 352 deg 37 nm 17:03:00Z
N. 107 deg 81 kt
O. 350 deg 27 nm 17:00:00Z
P. 18 C / 1529 m
Q. 22 C / 1526 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 27
MAX FL WIND 83 KT 295 / 26 NM 14:17:30Z

[artist]

[rickybobby]

The hype has started! People were buying water and the lines were about 5 mins at publix but I live on the east coast which should only see rain. Go figure.

[BYG Jacob]

Michael is an ugly looking storm right now.

[eastcoastFL]

The hype has started! People were buying water and the lines were about 5 mins at publix but I live on the east coast which should only see rain. Go figure.

Id say that is being proactive not hype. Plus if the north of the state is a mess it will effect goods coming south.

[cheezyWXguy]

Seeing a large cloud-filled eye become visible on vis imagery, just of the western tip of cuba:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[CWRobin]

Here in Tallahassee, people were lining up last night to buy gas. Today, every market is a bit hectic and it should get worse by COB today. We know a nasty one is headed our way so people are preparing for the outages as best they can.

[p1nheadlarry]

Here in Tallahassee, people were lining up last night to buy gas. Today, every market is a bit hectic and it should get worse by COB today. We know a nasty one is headed our way so people are preparing for the outages as best they can.

They'll need Gulf or FPL to help out, Tallahassee has their own city 'company' (for those not familiar with TLH)

[Michele B]

Look at that huge lightning filled convective mass on the east side. It is about to pound the isle of youth and western cuba. If the system maintains this configuration and doesn't gain it's anticipated longitude some rather heavy weather could make it onto or just graze the west coast. The latest QPF output keeps the heavy stuff just west of here but it's going to be a close shave. Perhaps Dennis 05 might be an analog for the west coast as the system transits the eastern gulf. we escaped significant impacts here but I strongly prefer a bigger margin of safety.

If it tracks just 50-100 miles further east, we're in some deep do do on the west coast

RGEM mesoscale prediction - banding along west coast counties.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100806&fh=54

Far eastern side of Sarasota County....just had a massive squall, huge gusts of winds, tree limbs flying.

Can't imagine when it gets closer to us. I HOPE it stays far away from our W. Coast.....don't want to prep like a hurricane.

[StPeteMike]

As I expected, the last recon with a position northwest of the recon was a wobble not a change of movement. Any close to over land interaction with the western tip of Cuba will also do the same, either east or west but in most cases, a wobble to the east is more likely after emerging from Cuba.

[Craters]

Eye coming up on IR as well.
30nm diameter per last VDM.

http://i68.tinypic.com/vy6pm8.gif

Dang, that's a lot of lightning to the SE!

[gulf701]

It appears that the population of coastal Gulf County are taking Michael seriously. I was in the grocery store adding to our volunteer fire department supplies and almost everyone was preparedness shopping. The BOCC has a mandatory evacuation for Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Simmons Bayou and water side of US 98 in Highland View, WindMark, St. Joe Beach and Beacon Hill plus a voluntary evacuation of inland structures, low land areas, etc. All Gulf county coastal waters are closed due to rip currents, etc. Pray for us, this will be strongest storm we have faced. Will try to update the board as I can or upon request.

[floridasun78]

i watching two web cam from beach their people going to beach and hotel still open on Panama city beach

[CWRobin]

Here in Tallahassee, people were lining up last night to buy gas. Today, every market is a bit hectic and it should get worse by COB today. We know a nasty one is headed our way so people are preparing for the outages as best they can.

They'll need Gulf or FPL to help out, Tallahassee has their own city 'company' (for those not familiar with TLH)

Yeah, and the last time the city went without power, the company here was unable to handle the increased manning effectively. We had crews here with extra parts and the ability and they did not even stage them to get ready when the circuits turned off to get to work. It was a very "serialized" operation as opposed to operating in "parallel" with the extra crews. Oh well, that is what generators are for I suppose...

[GCANE]

Casablanca radar.
La Bajada is down.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[gulf701]

It appears that the population of coastal Gulf County are taking Michael seriously. I was in the grocery store adding to our volunteer fire department supplies and almost everyone was preparedness shopping. The BOCC has a mandatory evacuation for Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Simmons Bayou and water side of US 98 in Highland View, WindMark, St. Joe Beach and Beacon Hill plus a voluntary evacuation of inland structures, low land areas, etc. All Gulf county coastal waters are closed due to rip currents, etc. Pray for us, this will be strongest storm we have faced. Will try to update the board as I can or upon request.

[SunnyThoughts]

Schools in escambia and Santa Rosa counties closing half day tomorrow and all day on Wednesday. (2 counties farthest west in the panhandle)

[Blow_Hard]

i watching two web cam from beach their people going to beach and hotel still open on Panama city beach

Yes...there are quite a few tourists at the motels and hotels on PC Beach...I would imagine they'll start to issue the voluntary evacuation orders this evening or early in the A.M...

[toad strangler]

Michael is an ugly looking storm right now.

Disagree. He's got that "shrimp" look that they get before intensification.