#878 Postby GBPackMan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm
Western panhandle here (Fort Walton/Niceville area), filled up with gas, picked up some water and food this weekend, otherwise it should be business as usual here. Majority of businesses and schools are still on for the rest of the week, business as usual, although I suspect many will close for Wednesday just to be safe. Personally I've been here for Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, and every other storm since 2000. This one will likely be weaker than many of the summer thunderstorms we've had lately that have dumped 2-4" of rain per hour.
Remember this is just my opinion, so take it as such.
So based on the info I've seen and learned (based on the past 18 years of learning what affects what), from studying not just one model, not just parroting what NHC or NOAA or TWC says, but actually studying the forces from a distance similar to what the models do, this is what I see. Some may disagree but so far every storm I've chimed in on here I have been very close if not spot on (Irma, Nate, etc), even when others disagreed. I may be wrong here, it wouldn't be the first time, and will not be the last.
The 3 most trusted intensity models based on the 12z Oct 8 runs paint this as a mid to strong Cat1 (80-90 mph), with lower potential of weak Cat 2 at or close to landfall (90-100mph). There is better potential of intensifying to Cat 2 within 24-36 hours before landfall, but dropping back off to Cat 1 as it gets closer to land. Nowhere close to Cat 3-4 Opal. The extreme outlier models that haven't ever been correct are pushing the strength into the weak Cat 3 level, and some other outliers that are never right having it drop from Cat 1 back to TS by Tuesday morning until landfall (better chance of this happening than seeing a Cat 3). The rest of the models that are much more trustworthy and tend to be much closer to what really happens with past mid-late season storms, are keeping it as a mid to strong Cat 1 at landfall (80-90mph). Intensity info easily found on tropicaltidbits.
With the drier mid level shear coming from the Pacific and Yucatan side, plus the dry upper level shear from the trough (meaning additional dry cool air in that outflow), plus the low level winds coming in off the Atlantic, all means there are 3 different stronger flows pushing things in different directions. The flow from the Atlantic will weaken over the next 24h as the Atlantic high moves further east removing at least one inhibitor. Add in the fall temperatures over land in the southeastern US dipping into the 60s at night getting drawn into the storm, all these pieces will limit intensification to the Cat 1 (or weak Cat 2) level. Chance of short term (24h) RI to Cat 3 or stronger is very unlikely, I believe there are just too many external forces to allow that kind of RI. Long term (48h) intensification to that level is also unlikely because of the items mentioned above. Intensity info easily found on tropicaltidbits.
As for the path: the southern edge of the jet stream trough is still hanging tight to western TX with strengthening along the eastern edge of the front over the central plains, which provides a bit of a wall and push the storm a bit further east than previously expected. This is why I believe the next few updates will keep bumping landfall slightly east each time. Most models expected that trough to weaken and southern edge be pushed up into OK/KS by noon local time (or at least the TX panhandle), but it hasn't. With the Pacific storm Sergio outflow pushing mid level winds across Mexico (greatly drying out the air) and into the Gulf, plus the Atlantic High pushing east, and that trough movement slower than expected, I believe that means much more likely spot of landfall is just east of Panama City, somewhere in the vicinity of Mexico Beach to Port St Joe, potentially as far east as Apalachicola. It may continue the North run over the next 24h with minor wobbles west and east, but the 2 major players will have it making a bit tighter turn NNE approximately 12-16h before landfall.
Movement speed: That slower trough movement I believe should also help speed up Michael as it gets closer to land, weakening it faster and tearing it apart to spread the liquid sunshine across most of the east coast through the rest of the week. 24h from now (Oct 9 13:00 Central, 18z) it should be W of Sarasota, with landfall sometime around 16:00-18:00 Central just east of Panama City. That shows a fairly rapid movement speed increase as it gets closer to the panhandle. This is primarily why I suggest the place and timeframe that I do. If the trough fell back like the models expected, landfall would be further west (between Ft Walton and Panama City sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday), but so far that has not happened.
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Center visible at extreme edge of the radar.
