ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

Once a hurricane with the potential of Florence at a 4-5 makes landfall and starts to move inland, how quickly does the wind speed start to degrade?

[cycloneye]

Looks like Kermit is finding Florence more organized.Pressure around 990 mbs.

[artist]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 54.3W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[drewschmaltz]

For those keeping track, a Florence that starts strengthening now gives much credit to a northern track solution.

ALL southern tracks keep Florence from strengthening for the next 2-3 days still.

What would be a good chart to look at that has the steering for hurricanes depending on their height? I was just learning this last season from you great people and had a map i could toggle mb on and had the numbers memorized.

I guess a tough year wiped out the specifics.

This isnt exactly it. But does this not show that we should expect southern movement for a deepeing cyclone? Im looking to get schooled if anyone takes the bait.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

Moving right alog.. this going to be an interesting week.

[plasticup]

Storms firing around the center.. I think its go time

And just in time for recon to arrive

It’s not a storm sampling recon, it is a recon to check the upper air around Florence. The recon for Florence itself I can’t remember if it’s sunday or monday

That is what they originally announced, but apparently they changed their minds!

[SSL]

For those keeping track, a Florence that starts strengthening now gives much credit to a northern track solution.

ALL southern tracks keep Florence from strengthening for the next 2-3 days still.

This is negated by the fact that she's further south than the models are initializing her though.

[Ken711]

This is the first time the NHC in their 11:00 discussion mentions the areas they are most concerned with for Florence direct impact:

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

At this point, got to acknowledge N Florida & Georgia as possible major hurricane landfall even if it hasn't happened in 100+ years...
Something will give likely towards NC IMO...

Maybe that's what the 06Z GFS was hinting at a North and East trend.

[NC_Cyclone]

For those keeping track, a Florence that starts strengthening now gives much credit to a northern track solution.

ALL southern tracks keep Florence from strengthening for the next 2-3 days still.

What would be a good chart to look at that has the steering for hurricanes depending on their height? I was just learning this last season from you great people and had a map i could toggle mb on and had the numbers memorized.

I guess a tough year wiped out the specifics.

This isnt exactly it. But does this not show that we should expect southern movement for a deepeing cyclone? Im looking to get schooled if anyone takes the bait.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

Thats a great link! compare the 700-850MB to the 500-850mb layer. Notice the 700mb layer the storm HAS to move to the south. But at the 500-850mb layer there are two circulations and a weakness in between. A strong storm will find this weakness QUICKER than a weaker storm which would have to go ALLL the way around the 700-850mb layer.

So thats the key. If FLorence keeps deepening then he will shoot up into that weakness quicker and quicker.

[psyclone]

Once a hurricane with the potential of Florence at a 4-5 makes landfall and starts to move inland, how quickly does the wind speed start to degrade?

It's immediate but if it's from a high baseline and the storm is moving a decent clip damaging winds can extend well inland. Recall that Charlotte got hurricane force winds and lots of wind damage from Hugo...as an example..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Once a hurricane with the potential of Florence at a 4-5 makes landfall and starts to move inland, how quickly does the wind speed start to degrade?

Potential damage could be several hundred miles inland.

[jlauderdal]

For those keeping track, a Florence that starts strengthening now gives much credit to a northern track solution.

ALL southern tracks keep Florence from strengthening for the next 2-3 days still.

This is negated by the fact that she's further south than the models are initializing her though.

Dont overestimate poleward movement, the ridge is very robust now and it could be as strong or stronger next week, nhc acknowledges it as do local nws offices discuss building heights...this system isnt going out to sea regardless of that suspect gfs run

[jaxfladude]

Oh great. Just what we need in jax metro and ne fla/se ga. 3 years in a row a hurricane threatens if Florence comes calling too close for comfort like her siblings Matthew and Irma.. Too early to be sure but heard that in '16/'17 too. Third time's the uncharmed. Welp have to do what have to do.

This is the first time the NHC in their 11:00 discussion mentions the areas they are most concerned with for Florence direct impact:

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

[psyclone]

The inland decay maximum envelope of wind helps us visualize the inland wind hazard by taking into account landfall intensity and forward motion. the stronger the storm and the faster the motion...the greater inland a damaging wind hazard exists.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

[NotoSans]

Looks like 55 to 60 knots as per recon.

[NC_Cyclone]

For those keeping track, a Florence that starts strengthening now gives much credit to a northern track solution.

ALL southern tracks keep Florence from strengthening for the next 2-3 days still.

This is negated by the fact that she's further south than the models are initializing her though.

Dont overestimate poleward movement, the ridge is very robust now and it could be as strong or stronger next week, nhc acknowledges it as do local nws offices discuss building heights...this system isnt going out to sea regardless of that suspect gfs run

Im not overestimating it. A deeper system will find the weakness that is to the NW of FLorence. The stronger it is the MORE it feels that and the more it goes north. The ONLY ONLY way that this storm makes landfall south of mid-South Carolina is if is stays above 990mb for the next 60+ hrs. Then that gives it time to edge further west, miss the weakness and then get shoved due west.

Right now satellite presentation and microwave imagery suggests it is going to continue to strengthen. It will get tall enough to feel that weakness.


THe 00z EURO doesn't get Florence down to 990mb for another 60+ hours. while the 00z GFS is right on the money at 990mb right now.

[jlauderdal]

This is negated by the fact that she's further south than the models are initializing her though.

Dont overestimate poleward movement, the ridge is very robust now and it could be as strong or stronger next week, nhc acknowledges it as do local nws offices discuss building heights...this system isnt going out to sea regardless of that suspect gfs run

Im not overestimating it. A deeper system will find the weakness that is to the NW of FLorence. The stronger it is the MORE it feels that and the more it goes north. The ONLY ONLY way that this storm makes landfall south of mid-South Carolina is if is stays above 990mb for the next 60+ hrs. Then that gives it time to edge further west, miss the weakness and then get shoved due west.

Right now satellite presentation and microwave imagery suggests it is going to continue to strengthen. It will get tall enough to feel that weakness.

That works if there is a weakness, i see more and more ridging..hopefully that ridge isnt that strong, unlikely

[NC_Cyclone]

The inland decay maximum envelope of wind helps us visualize the inland wind hazard by taking into account landfall intensity and forward motion. the stronger the storm and the faster the motion...the greater inland a damaging wind hazard exists.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

And unfortunately FLorence will be very fast.

[SSL]

This is negated by the fact that she's further south than the models are initializing her though.

Dont overestimate poleward movement, the ridge is very robust now and it could be as strong or stronger next week, nhc acknowledges it as do local nws offices discuss building heights...this system isnt going out to sea regardless of that suspect gfs run

Im not overestimating it. A deeper system will find the weakness that is to the NW of FLorence. The stronger it is the MORE it feels that and the more it goes north. The ONLY ONLY way that this storm makes landfall south of mid-South Carolina is if is stays above 990mb for the next 60+ hrs. Then that gives it time to edge further west, miss the weakness and then get shoved due west.

Right now satellite presentation and microwave imagery suggests it is going to continue to strengthen. It will get tall enough to feel that weakness.


THe 00z EURO doesn't get Florence down to 990mb for another 60+ hours. while the 00z GFS is right on the money at 990mb right now.

There is no weakness mate.

[KWT]

This is negated by the fact that she's further south than the models are initializing her though.

Dont overestimate poleward movement, the ridge is very robust now and it could be as strong or stronger next week, nhc acknowledges it as do local nws offices discuss building heights...this system isnt going out to sea regardless of that suspect gfs run

Im not overestimating it. A deeper system will find the weakness that is to the NW of FLorence. The stronger it is the MORE it feels that and the more it goes north. The ONLY ONLY way that this storm makes landfall south of mid-South Carolina is if is stays above 990mb for the next 60+ hrs. Then that gives it time to edge further west, miss the weakness and then get shoved due west.

Right now satellite presentation and microwave imagery suggests it is going to continue to strengthen. It will get tall enough to feel that weakness.


THe 00z EURO doesn't get Florence down to 990mb for another 60+ hours. while the 00z GFS is right on the money at 990mb right now.

Depends on whether the models are right about the ridging strength. A stronger storm may be more prone to poleward motion..but if the models underestimated the ridge then that would balance out...

So lots of factors still...