ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Very rapid warming of the eye from those two towers.
Just brushing the tip of Cuba.
Will likely not even phase it.


http://i67.tinypic.com/35chok1.jpg

flat like florida, zero effect on inflow and off to the gulf

May be true about the rest of Florida, but the panhandle has the highest point in the state (a whopping 345ft ASL) which is less than an hours drive from the coast (approx 45-50 miles). Where the storm surge may have a greater impact on the rest of the state, the western panhandle has a much greater elevation increase meaning much less land area affected. Granted the big bend area is primarily uninhabited swamp land, the coastal towns will still likely see water a foot or two deep throughout most of town.

thats true but there isnt inflow issues once its gets into the panhandle..surge and wind for this system is a major concern, peeps in the panhandle and big bend are tough as nails and know how to deal with big storms, i was supposed to be in tally on fri/sat and that has been canceled

[Aric Dunn]

a proper eye is starting to show up in the middle of the deep convective burst..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

What effect does all the red tide have on the system. Its pretty bad right now, will the rain be toxic?

and please dont laugh. The water on reddington beach a few weeks back looked like Red Jello - mud with dead everything.

[ozonepete]

could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.

It's an upper level low producing some convection. I't getting stretched se to nw now and will lose its identity within the next 24 hours. Should not have any effect on Michael other than keeping the environment moist ahead of it.

[caneman]

What effect does all the red tide have on the system. Its pretty bad right now, will the rain be toxic?

and please dont laugh. The water on reddington beach a few weeks back looked like Red Jello - mud with dead everything.

It should push it out and help to dissipate it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I see recon had mission 3 and mission 5. What happened to 4?

[shiny-pebble]

If the eye continues to clear I wouldn't be surprised with 75KTs maybeee pushing 80KT

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[nativefloridian]

could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.

Was wondering the same myself. Sure does look like it's being pulled towards Michael....IMO

[Hammy]

I see absolutely no sign of westward shear or midlevel shear on satellite right now

https://i.imgur.com/sNiUzaL.gif

That is because you're looking at close range imagery with little mid or high level clouds to follow aside from the ones within the storm itself, although if you look at the western edge clouds north of the Yucatan in the vicinity of 24N 88W down to 22N 89W, you can see the lower level outflowing clouds moving west yet the top level clouds being pushed east. Look at the loops over the entire gulf. Storms flaring up just offshore from TX where the tops suddenly get pulled into the gulf eastward due to shear. Storms flaring up along southeastern MX with the tops being sheared off pushing NE.
You can also see the drier air coming off the Yucatan land starting to get wrapped into the circulation. The internal intensification may limit this some but it may also wrap its way in causing the eye wall to partially collapse again.

That is assuming the atmosphere is static. What is there now most likely will not be there when Michael, and the environment it is creating push into it. Plus the ULL that was causing the shear is rapidly moving northward.

A good example of this is the screaming westerly shear that, 24 hours ago, was where Michael currently is.

[caneman]

Am I smoking crack or is that front already off Texas? It looks like the wind flow there is now SW to NE in looking at water vapor.
Has the NOAA jet been out to sample upper air environment, if not, when? Thanks

[chaser1]

The difference is amazing between max (Cat 3) surge near Panama City vs. Apalachca Bay. Didn't realize there'd be that much of a difference. In addition to the shallower waters further east, I suppose there's also the fact that a greater forcing of water "pile-up" would exist to the east, whereas further west along the Panhandle the increased storm surge can at least spread out a greater distance perpendicular to the coastline?

One key factor in storm surge calculations is called the "Shoaling Factor". The shoaling factor relates to the distance offshore to the 10-fathom depth (60 ft). The closer to the coast that 10-fathom depth, the less the storm surge threat. Note that for Pensacola to Panama City, the multiplier in the storm surge calculation is only about 0.4. Compare that to 1.8 in Vermilion Bay or 1.75 on the Mississippi Coast (or the 1.1 to 1.2 in Apalachee Bay). The shoaling factor is one of the more significant factors in storm surge height.

Fascinating; all the more reason I can see what a nightmare forecasting storm surge several days extended forecast in advance of a storm, considering how large the spread of shoaling that exists within a relative small distance and the difference the point of landfall would seem to make. Is that particular chart based off shoaling AND specific pressure (or sustained wind)?

[nativefloridian]

could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.

[floridasun78]

this look like 85mph hurr it getting stronger by sat pic

[BobHarlem]

Michael is about to officially be in the Gulf of Mexico. That Comma shape to it tells me it's probably going to go hog wild in the Gulf.

[Hammy]

When's the next flight scheduled, this evening or overnight?

[Nimbus]

Looks like it is bombing out in that high heat content area just north of Cuba.
Charley went to cat 4 very quickly in the same stretch of water.

[srainhoutx]

Am I smoking crack or us that front already off Texas? It looks like the wind flow there is now SW to NE in looking at water vapor.
Has the NOAA jet but out to sample upper air environment, if not, when? Thanks

The cold front is currently draped across SW and Southern Kansas. No front along the Texas Coast.

[GCANE]

could be my eyes..but is that a rotation over the bahamas moving towards Michael.

Its an ULL that will be venting Michael

[GCANE]

Starting to see radial fingers in the cirrus on the north quad.
Looks like he's about to bomb.