SPAC: INVEST 97P

[TorSkk]

97P INVEST 181229 0600 12.6S 154.1E SHEM 20 1002

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290524Z SSMIS F-
16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND A POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH A EASTWARD TRACK AND
POSSIBLE INTEGRATION INTO INVEST 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[TyphoonNara]