ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

2019/9/2 09:15:18: [92L Formed] 92L INVEST 190902 0600 30.0N 59.9W ATL 30 1011

[Nancy Smar]

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this
morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[HurricaneRyan]

So many invests

[Sciencerocks]

[DioBrando]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9262/IbD6g4.gif

PTC10 repeat?

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Hammy]

I'm thinking this is more organized than the discussions are giving credit.

[EquusStorm]

Surprised it's down to 30. All we really need is a surface low, convection has been surprisingly organized for a couple days now

[northjaxpro]

92L is looking better and better by the hour early this morning. Very deep convection is bloosoming near the LLC.

This has the look of a TD pr even a TS right now and should be upgraded very soon if the current things I am seeing happening currently continues into today.

We are about to have 3 named.storms going on simultaneously.in the North Atlantic basin, as Invest 93L will likely be upgraded later today . We may soon have a 4th named storm has well with Invest 91 in a couple of days.

September starting out with a bang in the tropics. It is the peak of the hurricane season.right now of course. No more of these ridiculous season cancelled posts anymore goiing forward for crying out loud!!

[cycloneye]

2. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of
days while the system moves northward, and a tropical depression
could form by Thursday. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of
heavy rainfall are likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[plasticup]

Caught one of those convective bands this morning and it certainly felt tropical! And the satellite looks a lot closer to TD than 40%. Guess we'll see. Everyone in Bermuda is talking about Dorian so this will catch people off guard.

[Kazmit]

Visible on the Bermuda radar.
http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=

Conditions here are breezy with on and off showers. I still doubt it will become anything to worry about before it passes us.

[DioBrando]

Visible on the Bermuda radar.
http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=

Conditions here are breezy with on and off showers. I still doubt it will become anything to worry about before it passes us.

I don't think this will even get a name

[Kazmit]

Visible on the Bermuda radar.
http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=

Conditions here are breezy with on and off showers. I still doubt it will become anything to worry about before it passes us.

I don't think this will even get a name

It looks pretty good but it doesn't have much time. I agree with the NHC that the chances are about 40%.

[EquusStorm]

Is it just me or does it look like the NW side is legitimately starting to wrap up. Have to rely on radar I guess since ASCAT missed it but it's going to be VERY close to being a TD if it isn't classified.

[plasticup]

Convection really blowing up in the last hour:

[HurricaneRyan]

Part of me wants to see 4 storms in the Atlantic and parr of me wants this not to develop. Because supposedly the storm after td 8 will be much bigger and it would get the infamous I name if both of these develop