WTPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 119.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 119.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.0N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 118.8E.
20NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
109 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRIPPED OF
DEEP CONVECTION AFTER IT EXITED FROM THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF LUZON
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25KTS BASED ON THE RAPID RATE OF DECAY AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ANALYSES INDICATE THE TD 27W HAS
DRIFTED INTO THE UNUSUALLY COOLER WATERS OF THE SCS (<28C),
EXACERBATED BY AN ONGOING COLD/DRY NORTHERLY WIND SURGE. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY TO (15-20KTS); HOWEVER, THE
RELATIVE VWS IS HIGHER DUE TO THE STORM MOTION BEING DIAMETRICALLY
OPPOSITE TO UPPER WIND FLOW. FURTHERMORE, OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED DUE TO THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF TS 28W, APPROXIMATELY
500NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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