NIO: Depression (was Invest 92B)

[Nancy Smar]

[NRL_ATCF files]
92B INVEST 191204 0000 2.0N 82.0E IO 15 0
Page Generated: Wed Dec 4 03:31:51 2019 GMT

[doomhaMwx]

This also has model support for development, especially from the ECMWF, once it moves into the Arabian Sea within the next couple of days.

[Astromanía]

WOW! NIO is impressive this year by far

[Nancy Smar]

[NRL_ATCF files]
92A INVEST 191205 0000 5.0N 76.6E IO 25 1003
Page Generated: Thu Dec 5 00:32:11 2019 GMT

[doomhaMwx]

92B INVEST 191207 0600 6.5N 65.2E IO 25 1009

LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL
INDIAN OCEAN. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

Looks like its up to 30kts now. IMD is behind again.
The global models don't do much with this as it heads WNW/NW during the next few days (ECMWF which was the most aggressive at first has also backed off on significant development), but they're probably underestimating it again due to its small size.

[doomhaMwx]

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 64.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 64.7E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071730Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AND A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE UKMET, JGSM, AND
ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CIRCULATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF 92B. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[Grifforzer]

Any idea why this is ARB 08 since 07A was ARB 06?

BULLETIN NO. : 05 (ARB/08/2019)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1100 HOURS IST DATED: 09.12.2019

Sub: Deep Depression over southwest Arabian Sea

The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved northwestwards with a speed of 13 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 09th December, 2019, over southwest Arabian Sea near latitude 10.6°N and longitude 60.0°E, about 700 km east-southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1780 km west-northwest of Kochi (Kerala). It is very likely to weaken into a depression during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards during next 12 hours and west-southwestwards thereafter.

[doomhaMwx]

Increasing southwesterly shear has started to take its toll on the system.

REMARKS:
THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 072100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 63.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 61.6E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081243Z SSMIS F-18
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED
INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.