ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[lrak]

I count at least 4 vorts rotating around. Something will consolidate it a good deal of convection builds.
.

https://i.imgur.com/wOzCBRX.jpg

Now it looks like the SW one

[Aric Dunn]

I count at least 4 vorts rotating around. Something will consolidate it a good deal of convection builds.
.

https://i.imgur.com/wOzCBRX.jpg

Now it looks like the SW one

Lol. It will do that until convection builds near the middle of the vorts. Besides the vorts its structure is.much better than yesterday. More symmetrical wind field.

[GCANE]

Looking at CIMSS, a good ML (500mb) vort is developing to the east.
Shear-driven convection is firing off in it.
Pretty decent cirrus layer here too.
Might work itself down to the surface.

[cycloneye]

IMO,it was a good decision to cancel todays recon because there is not a well defined low pressure yet but small vortices as Aric mentioned.But for Tuesday it may look better to send the plane as we may have a more organized system than today. Let's see how things evolve in real time on the next 24 hours.

[chaser1]

I count at least 4 vorts rotating around. Something will consolidate it a good deal of convection builds.
.

https://i.imgur.com/wOzCBRX.jpg

Nice graphic. I think I see an additional one well to the Southeast over land (weakened vort center that moved north from the Pacific side yesterday?). I think a LLC will essentially become slowly better established a little east and north of the presently depicted Best Track center. I'd keep an eye on the 850mb (southerly) winds becoming sharper and a bit stronger by late in the day. This should aid it's low to mid level inflow and i'd guess result in a significant convective blow up east and north of center later today into this evening. The added lift and deeper convergent inflow from the south should result in pressure falls and a LLC to become a little better defined tonight. I think that this along with the competing LLC to the southwest which in part has been the cause of the east-west stretched elongated low has been the primary inhibiting factors for quicker development. The energy from this second feature within the broader gyre should move south (inland) today as well. Here again I think we'll begin to see signs of an increased northwesterly 850mb flow feeding into 91L's west quadrant. I'd be surprised if overall convection were not to increase and become more concentrated nearer to 91L's center this evening/tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

IMO,it was a good decision to cancel todays recon because there is not a well defined low pressure yet but small vortices as Aric mentioned.But for Tuesday it may look better to send the plane as we may have a more organized system than today. Let's see how things evolve in real time on the next 24 hours.

Yeah, the would close off the wind field but cont one defined circ.

But speaking of vorts. That vort/lobe on the SE side of circ is going to be carrying a lot of energy has it swings north. Watch for a large convective burst as it does so later.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1135572825509638145

[chaser1]

Recon CANCELLED.

Make's sense. Save the gas, and clean of any remaining love-bugs from the windshield. I'd guess they'll fly her tomorrow and find a reasonably closed 1004 mb center.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1135575639921168385

[chaser1]

"Tail-gate T.D. development watch party" tonight (BYOB, drink responsibly )

[slamdaddy]

All in for a good development watch par-tay

[MGC]

As long as the center of 91L remains devoid of convection ain't nuthin gonna happen. I'm betting the arch of convection is choking the center of moisture....only slow development I'm thinking, still holding to my 25% chance of TC formation for 91L, just don't have the look.....MGC

[Craters]

As long as the center of 91L remains devoid of convection ain't nuthin gonna happen. I'm betting the arch of convection is choking the center of moisture....only slow development I'm thinking, still holding to my 25% chance of TC formation for 91L, just don't have the look.....MGC

MGC, quit it with the negative waves!

[mcheer23]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have become a little
better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite-based
wind data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and
poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward
toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical
cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over
portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and
Louisiana through Thursday. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
mission for this afternoon has been canceled, however another
aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow,
if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Aric Dunn]

Man once that lobe on the se side gets east to west orientated this will likely take.

Every frame it showing more orginization.

[MGC]

As long as the center of 91L remains devoid of convection ain't nuthin gonna happen. I'm betting the arch of convection is choking the center of moisture....only slow development I'm thinking, still holding to my 25% chance of TC formation for 91L, just don't have the look.....MGC

MGC, quit it with the negative waves!

Call them like I see them. Worry not, there are 6 months left for something to spin up. No saying 91L won't but I doubt it with its current structure. However things can change in the BOC.....MGC

[lrak]

Looks a lot better than this morning for sure. Only satellite observation but to me it looks like a small tight turning just above the little blob in the center of the disturbance.

[chaser1]

Man once that lobe on the se side gets east to west orientated this will likely take.

Every frame it showing more orginization.

Yep, sure does. While the 2:00pm TWO indicates "a little better organized", I disagree with the suggestion that the circulation is "elongated". Appears to me that a LLC exists (possibly still just above the surface?) and is a little bit broad but certainly not appearing elongated. Maybe what was meant was the the surface pressure field was still elongated and not yet fully constricted to a better defined tight COC. That may very well be evolving right now though, given the last couple hour increase of convection near the center that's taking place. Overall trend shows improved organization. I would've increased development percentages to 70/80.

[Cypresso]

91L still has Houston looking south. Another day or two should let us know more here in H-Town. The continuing curve more to the east is interesting, however it is hard for myself to trust tracking this far out. Thanks for all the information you guys/gals have been sharing on perhaps Barry in the making!

[chaser1]

91L still has Houston looking south. Another day or two should let us know more here in H-Town. The continuing curve more to the east is interesting, however it is hard for myself to trust tracking this far out. Thanks for all the information you guys/gals have been sharing on perhaps Barry in the making!

Feel free to bring along some popcorn to the "Tail-gate" this evening!