ATL: BARRY - Models

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lrak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#101 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:47 pm

For two days the Euro has been trending SW which is concerning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#102 Postby Roxy » Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:24 pm

TexWx wrote:
Alicia? What year?[/quote]

1983[/quote]

I was 5 I remember it well.

How much can we trust these models on intensity?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#103 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:47 pm

Can someone tell me how many members are on the Eps and what the spread is looking like?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#104 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:04 pm

:uarrow: The majority of Euro ensembles show the upper to middle Texas coast as far as landfall locations.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#105 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Oh, how the tides turn. Yesterday the ECMWF was a clear outlier, now it's the GFS.


it is not exactly an outlier. it is just having some issues with the vorticity. the overall reasoning for track is inline with the euro.


Do they initialize vorticity? It's a calculated field; do they use the 12z model wind and height data or recently observed wind/height data and calculate the advection?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#106 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:44 pm

Still no HWRF or HMON.I guess they will begin to run at 00z.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#107 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:44 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Can someone tell me how many members are on the Eps and what the spread is looking like?



Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#108 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:52 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#109 Postby Roxy » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:Still no HWRF or HMON.I guess they will begin to run at 00z.

https://i.imgur.com/avPVgPe.png



This is higher intensity than I saw last run. If my amateur brain is working.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#110 Postby Tailspin » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:30 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/Tjm466E
Early.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#111 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:34 pm

Nam 00z still likes a closer to the coast solution through 57 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#112 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:28 pm

0z ICON shifts east by about 100 miles and is also stronger. Landfall is Central Louisiana at 980mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#113 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:29 pm

It’s the icon lol..it’s just like the cmc
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#114 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:30 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:It’s the icon lol..it’s just like the cmc


It’s also a model and this is the model thread. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#115 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:33 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:It’s the icon lol..it’s just like the cmc


It’s also a model and this is the model thread. :D



Lol I hear u
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#116 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:47 pm

As if the 0z GFS wants to stack the low and mid level circulations better may end up stronger than previous runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#117 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:48 pm

GFS might be starting to cave to the ECMWF, 00z coming in a touch stronger now and further south.

EDIT: Significantly stronger now, 1001mb by 76 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#118 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:55 pm

The strongest run from GFS since it began with this.997 mbs at 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#119 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:56 pm

GFS down to 997 at 96 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#120 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:59 pm

993 mb at 108 hrs.
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