ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal, located several hundred miles west of
the Azores.
1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions
appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal, located several hundred miles west of
the Azores.
1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions
appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Convection getting further away from the center, looks like it's already starting to pull in dry air.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Early morning vis showing why the MDR still remains hostile, dry air filtering in on the northern side.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Up to 70-80%
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I see some curved banding. There's a bit of easterly shear, which is keeping most convection to the west. However, there is some convection trying to fire near the nascent center. Not too far now from being a TD
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
CIMSS products show a NW tongue of dry air in front of 99L that is inducing some entrainment from the SW. However, while the eastern flank of the system has remained rather void of convection for the past 48 hours, an established outflow jet to the north is helping stave off some of that dry air now, and the last few frames have shown convection beginning to build right to the east of the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Another look at the vis satellite this morning, definitely some easterly shear is affecting 99L this morning with some dry air on its eastern quadrant but the circulation looks more defined this morning.
Latest 2 GFS runs are weaker than previous runs with the system as it tracks west. HWRF is still aggressive as always.
Latest 2 GFS runs are weaker than previous runs with the system as it tracks west. HWRF is still aggressive as always.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Im just going to say ... ummmm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Perhaps we'd better just wait and see what happens when it reaches 50°W, because something magical almost always seems to happen at that longitude.
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- AubreyStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Im just going to say ... ummmm...
What? Possible TS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Im just going to say ... ummmm...
It’s losing its core, not sure it will last by this evening. Imo, NHC should drop chances to 30/50.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Storms firing near center, self sustaining. Well on its way imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Im just going to say ... ummmm...
It’s losing its core, not sure it will last by this evening. Imo, NHC should drop chances to 30/50.
Losing its core? Doesn't look like it to me
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
NotSparta wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Im just going to say ... ummmm...
It’s losing its core, not sure it will last by this evening. Imo, NHC should drop chances to 30/50.
Losing its core? Doesn't look like it to me
Dry air is starting to disrupt it on the eastern side. It’s going to move alongside 99L and some easterly shear is waiting for it out ahead of it. We’re going to start seeing, “popcorn convection”, hot towers appear and disappear almost instantly because of that dry air.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Good news this morning if this even develops it will more then likely be decapitated as it nears the islands. Conditions just are not favorable overall
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Very well defined. with convection building around it. and very deep convection in the secondary curved band.
some easterly shear but that is not stopping it..should go straight to TS but they wont. they will likely go with the usual, gradual development.
some easterly shear but that is not stopping it..should go straight to TS but they wont. they will likely go with the usual, gradual development.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Good news this morning if this even develops it will more then likely be decapitated as it nears the islands. Conditions just are not favorable overall
This is absolutely the case. When you see this type of struggling, moisture starved, small system, I can’t recall one ever amounting to more than a tropical storm. There is just nothing to work with.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Everyone’s saying different things- some think it’s well on its way to being a named storm and some think it’s dying.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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