ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks good, firing enough to start creating a warm core.
Check the direction of the cumulus popping up over eastern Cuba.
These should fire off in a few hours and then give a big moisture feed later.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks good, firing enough to start creating a warm core.
Check the direction of the cumulus popping up over eastern Cuba.
These should fire off in a few hours and then give a big moisture feed later.

https://i.imgur.com/OVknuyZ.png

Waa just going to mention the flow over cuba.

In regards to the seabreezes. Looks like the circ and pressure is dropping enough to counter the seabreezes and expanding the inflow from the south and sw. It is very close to closing off a well defined circ. If this convective burst keeps going for another couple hours i think we will see the west winds suddenly pull in.. then off we goo.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is overriding the dry slot to the west.
Dryline effect where mid-level moist air flows on top of boundary layer dry air creating lift and convection.
So, looks like convection will sustain itself.
Chances looking better for it to ramp up.

[GCANE]

Cirrus expanding in all directions.
Small fingers on the west quad.
Lightning show continuing.

[GCANE]

Swirl's moving into it.

[xironman]

The convection just to the NE continues to improve, yeah a lopsided sheared system could be in the future.

[GCANE]

West winds pretty deep into Cuba now.
Going fast.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1171812460602560512

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1171812460602560512

This is consistent with the model trend to the right, which now includes the 12Z GFS.

[SFLcane]

Convection increasing with 95L this afternoon.

[DioBrando]

Reminds me of TD 10 in 2007

[Evil Jeremy]

Reminds me of TD 10 in 2007

In what sense? TD10 developed out of a non-tropical low, was initially classified as Subtropical, formed just a couple dozen miles off the Panhandle, and spent less than 12 hours in the Gulf before moving inland.

[DioBrando]

Reminds me of TD 10 in 2007

In what sense? TD10 developed out of a non-tropical low, was initially classified as Subtropical, formed just a couple dozen miles off the Panhandle, and spent less than 12 hours in the Gulf before moving inland.

In every sense, even though an ULL supported the system

[tpr1967]

Reminds me of TD 10 in 2007

In what sense? TD10 developed out of a non-tropical low, was initially classified as Subtropical, formed just a couple dozen miles off the Panhandle, and spent less than 12 hours in the Gulf before moving inland.

In every sense, even though an ULL supported the system

A better analog of this system would be Tropical storm Gordon last year.

[psyclone]

This is the kind of system to shamelessly wishcast to your front yard...and after a 96 degree high in Tampa yesterday...I am.

[DioBrando]

In what sense? TD10 developed out of a non-tropical low, was initially classified as Subtropical, formed just a couple dozen miles off the Panhandle, and spent less than 12 hours in the Gulf before moving inland.

In every sense, even though an ULL supported the system

A better analog of this system would be Tropical storm Gordon last year.

Yeah but he didn't have all that shear lol

[Steve]

Reminds me of TD 10 in 2007

You were 10. Must have been memorable!

[Hammy]

Looks good, firing enough to start creating a warm core.
Check the direction of the cumulus popping up over eastern Cuba.
These should fire off in a few hours and then give a big moisture feed later.

https://i.imgur.com/OVknuyZ.png

The low formed fairly quickly, that's a 180 from yesterday's flow.

[tpr1967]

This is the kind of system to shamelessly wishcast to your front yard...and after a 96 degree high in Tampa yesterday...I am.

Hot down here in Palmetto too. Going to get rain this weekend regardless.

[chaser1]

Looks like a possible LLC just a tad west and south of 21N and 74W. Could just be transitory but I doubt it because there's a clear SSW flow into the Windward Passage and convection is firing up nicely over and on the north side of what appears to be a very small area of turning embedded within the southern edge of this area of convection. Seems to me that a broader low to mid level trough remains to it's north and is elongated east/west. Biggest short term issue here is that the large venting upper anticyclone is better co-located a bit north and east and is helping to better vent the broader convective area that is north and east of this small center. Thus for the moment it would seem that this low level feature is encountering light to moderate SW'erly shear for the moment. Perhaps during the next 24 hours, this low level feature might slide north and better align with the broader mid level disturbance? If not then it'll have to remain fairly convective all the while while itself moving WNW or otherwise dissipate. My best take on it is that the average of EURO ensembles have a fair handle on analyzing some weak area of vorticity that moves more NNW in the short-term but generally bends back more to the WNW on approach to the W. Bahamas. I think a T.D. could begin to coalesce near or just north of Andros while itself moves generally WNW under the eastward retreating 500mb ridging (still stout over over the Georgia/Carolina's area). Hell, as easily as NHC is apt to name things this year it wouldn't take much more then a S. Florida west land-breeze and some 35 knot winds north and east of center for NHC to potentially tag it with a name. Regardless, I could easily see 3"-5" of rain over the Bahamas and parts of South and/or Central Florida occur as a result.