ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SootyTern]

The least threatening name of the season- hopefully it fulfils this.

Sometimes you have to watch those least threatening names. 'Dorian' never sounded like much before, either.

At least the NHC got the 'I' name off the board, although she is still an ongoing concern. Hopefully y'all will get yards watered and nothing worse.

[Hammy]

Here's that ASCAT pass. Probably a good no upgrade based on it with only 25 kt wind vectors. Even accounting for ASCAT low bias in tropical systems (which isn't particularly pronounced at this intensity anyway), the most you can argue for with this pass is 30 kt.

https://i.imgur.com/A8dOIDp.png

Where'd you get the ASCAT C scan? The site only seems to have A and B.

[1900hurricane]

Here's that ASCAT pass. Probably a good no upgrade based on it with only 25 kt wind vectors. Even accounting for ASCAT low bias in tropical systems (which isn't particularly pronounced at this intensity anyway), the most you can argue for with this pass is 30 kt.

https://i.imgur.com/A8dOIDp.png

Where'd you get the ASCAT C scan? The site only seems to have A and B.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATCData.php

[Hammy]

Here's that ASCAT pass. Probably a good no upgrade based on it with only 25 kt wind vectors. Even accounting for ASCAT low bias in tropical systems (which isn't particularly pronounced at this intensity anyway), the most you can argue for with this pass is 30 kt.

https://i.imgur.com/A8dOIDp.png

Where'd you get the ASCAT C scan? The site only seems to have A and B.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATCData.php

Thanks, bookmarked. I'd been using this one which is fairly limited http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/ascat/winds.html

[AtlanticWind]

Hurricane centers forecast has this as hurricane in 72 hours
I would not be surprised if this reaches hurricane strength
in 24 to 36 hours looking at the sat. loops.

[Hammy]

What's the basis for hurricane intensity in the forecast? None of the models have this getting very strong during the forecast period and there's an SAL surge racing towards it.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

18/0600 UTC 14.2N 47.7W T3.0/3.0 10L -- Atlantic

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT23 KNES 180619
TCSNTL

A. 10L (NONAME)

B. 18/0600Z

C. 14.2N

D. 47.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THE ASSESSMENT OF 0.45 BANDING WAS AIDED BY THE 0434Z ATMS,
AND RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. CLOUD FEATURES IN EIR ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. MET
IS 2.5 AND PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[WAcyclone]

What's the basis for hurricane intensity in the forecast? None of the models have this getting very strong during the forecast period and there's an SAL surge racing towards it.

HWRF, ECMWF, SHIPS, UKMET, HMON and HAFS all show this system reaching hurricane strength within the next five days.

[AubreyStorm]

JERRY, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2019, TS, O, 2019091118, 9999999999, , 022, , , 2, WARNING, 5, AL102019

[galaxy401]

Now with 3.0 Dvorak, second time's the charm for this storm to become a TS. Watch it still have TD winds on ASCAT.

[Hammy]

Now with 3.0 Dvorak, second time's the charm for this storm to become a TS. Watch it still have TD winds on ASCAT.

Yep, it's named this time, rather than "Tropical Storm Ten" as it was initially on the 00z.

[FireRat]

[northjaxpro]

NHC pulled the rug from underneath me a little while ago and they revised the initial upgrade and kept it as a TD at 11p.m.

OK, so they delayed it for about 3 hours to make it FINALLY official.

We have JERRY now , our 10th named storm of the season and the fifth so far this month in September!!

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like it's moving dead west right now.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it's moving dead west right now.

Just slightly north of due west currently.

[aperson]

It's embedded under a nice upper-level trough to enhance outflow




Looks like having the trough overhead is keeping outflow from expanding poleward so the system is keeping its size in check and consolidating instead. We'll see if the SAL moving in shuts it down.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON...
5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18
Location: 14.1°N 47.7°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[northjaxpro]

Jerry already has built a very solid CDO and imo he is well on his way of becoming this season 's fouth hurricane. Dry air will likely not be an issue with Jerry.

He is in an excellent environment to intensify, which he is certainly doing now. He unfortnately maý be on.his way in following Dorian and Humberto as potentially a very formidable tropical cyclone in the coming days.

[chris_fit]

Probably an illusion but looks liker Jerry is moving S of West