WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/NNftLlP.gif

This is getting organized at a pretty remarkable pace, actually.

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL
BANDING, INTENSE VORTICAL HOT TOWERS AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 051829Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED CENTER
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST
VALUES OF 30-31C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALSO SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS),
CONSISTENT WITH A 05/1740Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.4. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
B. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RI THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE THE SYSTEM HITS THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THIS FORECAST INDICATES A TYPHOON-STRENGTH SYSTEM
(70-80 KNOTS) IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MARIANAS, HOWEVER, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 WITH AN 83 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48.
B. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 20W WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP, DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER
WESTERN JAPAN. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN BOOSTING THE INTENSITY TO SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 96 AS THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A 385 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 120. THE PRIMARY OUTLIER IS GFS (AVNI), WHICH IS RECURVING
THE SYSTEM EARLIER AND MORE AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE STR. THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 250 NM AT TAU 120.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A SIMILAR SPREAD OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Looks really good on visible imagery too.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1180596163298246656

[Highteeld]

Hagibis is doing well, but this seems overcooked.

SSMIS: 977.0 hPa 63.0 knots Date: 10052038

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 18Z RI-ing this to be a cat 4 (in terms of pressure) over the Marianas

[Highteeld]

Nice curved band there

[1900hurricane]

Hagibis is doing well, but this seems overcooked.

SSMIS: 977.0 hPa 63.0 knots Date: 10052038
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/WPAC/20W.TWENTY/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20191005.2038.f17.x.91h_1deg.20WTWENTY.35kts-1003mb-153N-1578E.068pc.jpg

For sure, microwave estimates are a little sketchy at lower estimates at times. It has great low level structure for what it is, but it only just recently became a tropical storm.

[Highteeld]

Nice curved band there
https://i.imgur.com/OLEI1wC.png

Next classification will probably be a T 3.0/45 knots with that curved banding going on

[euro6208]

Good morning Hagibis.

[mrbagyo]

[Nancy Smar]

20W TWENTY 191006 0000 15.1N 156.1E WPAC 40 993

[euro6208]

911 mb says the HWRF.

[mrbagyo]

Amazing Upper level anticyclone directly above it, the outflow is nearly radial but that equatorward is just terrific.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

OHC is insane.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

Estimates running higher than operational.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10052038
SATCON: MSLP = 991 hPa MSW = 54 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 52.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 58 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 998 hPa 41 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT052210
CIMSS AMSU: 1000 hPa 30 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10042235
ATMS: 989.0 hPa 46.0 knots Date: 10051512
SSMIS: 977.0 hPa 63.0 knots Date: 10052038
CIRA ATMS: 991 hPa 46 knots Date: 10051513

[Hayabusa]

20W TWENTY 191006 0000 15.1N 156.1E WPAC 40 993

Revised to 45

20W HAGIBIS 191006 0000 14.9N 155.8E WPAC 45 997

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 638 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 052242Z MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES OF 30-31C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES ALSO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON A 05/2340Z ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.9 (APPROXIMATELY 45 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
B. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RI WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BEFORE THE SYSTEM
HITS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. THIS FORECAST INDICATES A TYPHOON-
STRENGTH SYSTEM (75-80 KNOTS) IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MARIANAS,
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 32 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 20W WILL GENERALLY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP,
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WESTERN JAPAN.
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
AID IN BOOSTING THE INTENSITY TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 96 AS THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES WITH A 200 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE,
THERE IS NOW MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN