ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#101 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:17 am

Not for nothing. But I think the track forecast is likely to shift more to the ENE or even E over time, given the steering currents I see. Don't think we're going to get more than a sheared Subtrop/mid-strength TS out of this … but wouldn't be surprised in the least if landfall point ends up being on the FL peninsula vs. panhandle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#102 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:24 am

We are within 36 hours. I don't expect much shifts in models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#103 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:36 am

northjaxpro wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:No mention of Potential TC advisories possibly being initiated. It is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours and already has winds near TS force. Why haven't Tropical storm watches been issued yet?


Well, this is the main reason why NHC must issue something today because landfall is imminent now inside of 48 hours.

It does seem.like NHC has been reacting very slowly with this system, considering that time is critical right now. I personally was frustrated that Recon, which had been scheduled to fly out yesterday, got unexpectedly cancelled, and now they won't get in there until.this afternoon? :double:


There wasn't anything for recon to find out there yesterday but a very, very weak rotation, which was evident in surface obs. However, landfall/impacts in Florida are now well within 48 hrs and development chances are judged as "high" by the NHC. This meets their criteria for PTC advisories. I'm not sure if the LLC is well-enough defined this morning to call it a TD, but it should become a 40-50 kt TS prior to reaching the FL Panhandle before sunrise on Saturday. It'll be quite sheared, with all convection and wind east of the center.

I haven't read through all the overnight posts. Where were 35kt winds observed? Not seeing any scatterometer hits that indicated more than 25 kts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#104 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:38 am

Circ is very evident with the sw most convection building.

Same general area as the circ yesterday.

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#105 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:42 am

I see the scatterometer winds posted by GCANE earlier. Those 30 kt winds well north of the disturbance appear to be behind the cold front. Cool air over warm water results in supergeostrophic winds. That's not part of any circulation around 96L, though the wind may be flowing toward 96L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#106 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:45 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:Not for nothing. But I think the track forecast is likely to shift more to the ENE or even E over time, given the steering currents I see. Don't think we're going to get more than a sheared Subtrop/mid-strength TS out of this … but wouldn't be surprised in the least if landfall point ends up being on the FL peninsula vs. panhandle


That is my line of thought which I am leaning towards also 57.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#107 Postby Nuno » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:48 am

I don't understand the point of a PTC designation even being a thing when the NHC seem to use it so sparingly and arbitrarily. As many are saying, if TS impacts are imminent somewhere on the coast within 48 hours, shouldn't we at least have a PTC advisory?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#108 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:50 am

I suspect watches and warnings for Florida panhandle are coming soon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#109 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:50 am

LL Vort strengthening and consolidating quickly.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#110 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:52 am

Rapid Scan Up
Slider --> Meso Sector #2
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#111 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:55 am

Deep hot towers building rapidly over center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#112 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:58 am

I'm not seeing any banding whatsoever. Regardless, expect NHC to commence PTD advisories very soon ("coming to all N.E. GOM locations near you, it's..... sub-tropical hairball Nestor")
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#113 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:01 am

What a big system 96L is becoming, the short wave is ventilating it. I would expect that by it becoming more of a subtropical system the tropical storm force winds could reach the west coast of the peninsula. IMO.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#114 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:03 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Deep hot towers building rapidly over center.


See that too.
Minimal lightning indicating very moist air column.
Doesn't look like this is ready to move anytime soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#115 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:04 am

Good helicity on the latest tower.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#116 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:06 am

wxman57 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:No mention of Potential TC advisories possibly being initiated. It is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours and already has winds near TS force. Why haven't Tropical storm watches been issued yet?


Well, this is the main reason why NHC must issue something today because landfall is imminent now inside of 48 hours.

It does seem.like NHC has been reacting very slowly with this system, considering that time is critical right now. I personally was frustrated that Recon, which had been scheduled to fly out yesterday, got unexpectedly cancelled, and now they won't get in there until.this afternoon? :double:


There wasn't anything for recon to find out there yesterday but a very, very weak rotation, which was evident in surface obs. However, landfall/impacts in Florida are now well within 48 hrs and development chances are judged as "high" by the NHC. This meets their criteria for PTC advisories. I'm not sure if the LLC is well-enough defined this morning to call it a TD, but it should become a 40-50 kt TS prior to reaching the FL Panhandle before sunrise on Saturday. It'll be quite sheared, with all convection and wind east of the center.

I haven't read through all the overnight posts. Where were 35kt winds observed? Not seeing any scatterometer hits that indicated more than 25 kts.


It was more than a weak rotation 57. ASCAT last night clearly showed a well defined closed circulation. Also,NHC reported based on satellite and radar presentations reported estimations being to near tropical storm force last night during their 8 p.m. TWO. It would have been an added bonus to have Recon in there yesterday or last night , but I understand certain things and elements come up which are beyond control. l hope all is OK today for Recon and they will arrive on schedule.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#117 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:09 am

GCANE wrote:Rapid Scan Up
Slider --> Meso Sector #2


Thanks, the Meso sector 2 at least has a terrific resolution. Just wish the link from Levi's site allowed a longer loop. Anyway, just echoing what Aric was looking at a few minutes ago. Looks like the LLC trying to form somewhere close to that new tower popping around 22N and 96W. I get the impression that the much broader mid level will be east of center throughout
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#118 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:20 am

NDG wrote:What a big system 96L is becoming, the short wave is ventilating it. I would expect that by it becoming more of a subtropical system the tropical storm force winds could reach the west coast of the peninsula. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/7LZp4MZ.jpg



It is indeed a large system. It is shaping up to be an interesting storm for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#119 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:24 am

Some CCW rotation with the tower now.
Watching how this holds up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#120 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:25 am

I suspect most people from Mississippi westward will not see much in the way of impacts from this. It should be highly sheared with most impacts on the east side. Rough surf and possibly minor coastal flooding could affect extreme SE Louisiana and Mississippi. Alabama and points eastward should see most of the impacts. These sheared systems always trend east. We will see.
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