WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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aspen
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#101 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:50 pm



Guess I was wrong about the EWRC.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#102 Postby Tailspin » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:03 pm

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#103 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:20 pm

Dvorak estimates have risen to T#6.2/6.3, so I think Halong will be upgraded to a 115-120 kt Category 4 typhoon in the upcoming best track update.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#104 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:24 pm

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#105 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:45 pm

2019NOV05 001000 6.5 929.8 127.0 6.5 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -12.31 -78.07 EYE 11 IR 66.5 18.96 -151.80 ARCHER HIM-8 25.6
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#106 Postby Tailspin » Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:46 pm

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/h ... at_tgb.php

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https://imgur.com/JsYB9Af
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#107 Postby Tailspin » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:07 pm

aspen wrote:Dvorak estimates have risen to T#6.2/6.3, so I think Halong will be upgraded to a 115-120 kt Category 4 typhoon in the upcoming best track update.


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Just my 2cents i think u are maybe over estimating the intensity with this system atm.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#108 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:09 pm

Cat 4
24W HALONG 191105 0000 19.1N 151.9E WPAC 115 940
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#109 Postby Tailspin » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:31 pm

Ok a fugly JTWC cat4 :lol:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#110 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:51 pm

Achievement Unlocked: WMG pixels

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#111 Postby Tailspin » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:03 pm

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/twpac.html
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#112 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:10 pm

If Halong refrains from an EWRC within the next 12 hours, I wonder how much it’ll explode once diurnal max comes around and potentially returns its CDO to a full <-85 C ring.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#113 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:19 pm

We have positive eye temps now. ADT intensity has risen to 135 kt, which I think it a little too high; 120-125 kt seems better IMO.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#114 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:29 pm

2019NOV05 014000 6.8 922.0 134.8 6.8 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.95 -77.72 EYE 22 IR 85.1 19.27 -151.75 ARCHER HIM-8 25.8
Delta approaching 90*, which is usually when you get a cat5.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#115 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:46 pm

Highteeld wrote:2019NOV05 014000 6.8 922.0 134.8 6.8 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.95 -77.72 EYE 22 IR 85.1 19.27 -151.75 ARCHER HIM-8 25.8
Delta approaching 90*, which is usually when you get a cat5.


It sure is getting close. Based on the latest ADT update, the eye temp has skyrocketed to 17 C, and Dvorak estimates are at T#6.9.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#116 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:47 pm

Strong Delta:
17.42 -77.06
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#117 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:14 pm

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#118 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:16 pm


161.9K sampled, very cold.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#119 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:18 pm

Looking pretty good right now, that's for sure. Reminds me a bit of Irma '17 or Paka '97.

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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#120 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:18 pm

Highteeld wrote:Strong Delta:
17.42 -77.06

Delta up to 95.07*C
2019NOV05 023000 6.9 919.5 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.31 -76.97 EYE 20 IR 85.1 19.34 -151.65 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
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