ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Satellite Presentation not as impressive tonight.

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

[eastcoastFL]

I went out and got my generator gas and the last batteries I need. So come what may I am not going to have to stand in those obscene lines for gas like Irma. I hope he fizzles and doesn’t do anyone damage but I am ready either way. It was a good feeling to have it all taken care of this early. Hopefully for nothing.
Peace to Barbados and neighbors tonight

Good to hear! I got extra water but everything else i got on the tax free hurricane week.

[psyclone]

Satellite Presentation not as impressive tonight.

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

based on presentation the question of near term survival has become more interesting than long range model runs. Should the storm dissipate there would still remain the potential for regeneration if a disturbance remains...when and if it finds more favorable conditions. at this time of year everything needs to be watched, even a "dead" storm. Harvey is a great example and even Katrina's evolution come to mind..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A storm that dies in the Caribbean and still manages to avoid Hispaniola is a significantly greater threat in the long range than a more organized storm that directly hits Hispaniola, IMO. Overall long-range message would be the same.

[AtlanticWind]

Satellite Presentation not as impressive tonight.

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

based on presentation the question of near term survival has become more interesting than long range model runs. Should the storm dissipate there would still remain the potential for regeneration if a disturbance remains...when and if it finds more favorable conditions. at this time of year everything needs to be watched, even a "dead" storm. Harvey is a great example and even Katrina's evolution come to mind..

Agree,

Also this could be a temporary thing, there is a tendency to get overly "excited" when the sat presentation looks better
and the same when it degrades . Let's see what happens in the next 24 hours.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like radar data matches the aircraft dropsonde data on southern side.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_Lionel_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&ANISP=700&MAPP=1&PlanetOfTheApes=1566873344

[cycloneye]

Satellite Presentation not as impressive tonight.

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

based on presentation the question of near term survival has become more interesting than long range model runs. Should the storm dissipate there would still remain the potential for regeneration if a disturbance remains...when and if it finds more favorable conditions. at this time of year everything needs to be watched, even a "dead" storm. Harvey is a great example and even Katrina's evolution come to mind..

Dont forget that beast in 1992.

[toad strangler]

Satellite Presentation not as impressive tonight.

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

Then new towers eventually fire and the pendulum starts to swing back. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

[HDGator]

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

based on presentation the question of near term survival has become more interesting than long range model runs. Should the storm dissipate there would still remain the potential for regeneration if a disturbance remains...when and if it finds more favorable conditions. at this time of year everything needs to be watched, even a "dead" storm. Harvey is a great example and even Katrina's evolution come to mind..

Dont forget that beast in 1992.

Those of us that were here haven't forgotten what can happen with a couple days in warm, friendly waters through the Bahamas. Any storm entering those conditions needs to be treated with respect.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks weak but it will continue to fire convection which is key if it’s going to survive.

[Homie J]

Satellite Presentation not as impressive tonight.

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

Then new towers eventually fire and the pendulum starts to swing back. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

Why does this cycle keep repeating? Is it the dry air and shear that is not allowing for the convection to continue to grow?

[artist]

From the 11 update-

Dorian while it moves over the northeastern Caribbean, the dynamical
guidance indicates that the shear will not become very strong.
Therefore it is still expected that the cyclone will become a
hurricane in a couple of days. Some disruption of the system will
likely occur when the center moves near eastern Hispaniola.

[Craters]

Well, going relax and watch TV. Been looking at this storm since 6am. Another week, at least of 10-12 hour days. No Labor Day holiday for me. It's rare I'm not working then. Maybe Dorian will just dissipate and I can have a 3-day holiday!

Hey, Wx -- if you're going to be watching TV, you might want to look at The Weather Channel. I think I heard that they're tracking something called "Dorian."

Thought you might be interested.

No, no... don't thank me. Just trying to be helpful is all.

[Hurricaneman]

If it keeps bursting it will not die and if it goes through the Mona Passage this could become really ugly for Florida and could be a real flood threat for Hispaniola and Puerto Rico

[Evil Jeremy]

Down to 50pm at 11pm, but intensity forecast down the road is unchanged.

[Shell Mound]

The strength and persistence of the mid-level circulation may play a key role in the survival and intensity of DORIAN down the road, should it manage to survive the next day and a half. By days two and three, the large-scale TUTT to the east of Bermuda will retrograde and fill, allowing northerly mid-level shear to weaken and veer, thereby advecting a more unstable air mass from the ITCZ, while anticyclonic (divergent) flow begins to take hold near Puerto Rico. If the MLC remains vigorous and compact by then, as seems probable, then DORIAN could certainly reorganise and couple (a new) low-level and mid-level centres, even if a LLC is very weak or nonexistent at the moment. High environmental pressures seem to favour DORIAN remaining a small system as it nears the Greater Antilles and then passes beyond into the Bahamas. Then the only real inhibitor to further, potentially rapid deepening would be the degree of interaction with either PR or the Dominican Republic or both. Currently, the TUTT to the east of Bermuda seems to be more cut-off than originally forecast, suggesting a high degree of anticyclonic wave breaking, which would favour a faster retrogression, allowing more favourable conditions over DORIAN in two or three days (probably the former vs. the latter). This would also potentially favour convection on the northern and eastern sides of DORIAN by then, which would imply that any LLC/MLC coupling would take place farther northeast, increasing the likelihood that DORIAN would miss the DR, quite possibly "splitting the gap" between the DR and PR, i.e., over the Mona Passage. IF this takes place, then the combination of a rebuilding mid-level ridge to the north and very favourable (low) vertical shear levels, PLUS extremely warm SSTs and deep oceanic heat content over the Bahamas/FL Straits, along with improving humidity levels, could very well set the stage for an ANDREW- or 1935-type scenario. Of course, this is highly uncertain, but if everything goes just right, then the potential ceiling for DORIAN is, in my estimation, extremely high, with steering favouring a likely possible threat, beyond the south-central Bahamas, the southernmost FL peninsula and the Keys. DO NOT discount farther SW/stronger shifts in terms of track and intensity on the EPS/GEFS. A FL Straits/Keys/Gulf threat, potentially VERY strong, is well within the realm of possibility, with further threats to the W/C Gulf Coast (TX/LA) possible down the line.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Down to 50pm at 11pm, but intensity forecast down the road is unchanged.

Like I said earlier, all it has to do is survive until it passes Hispaniola and then it is game on.

[Hammy]

Unimpressive is an understatement might not be around to long.

based on presentation the question of near term survival has become more interesting than long range model runs. Should the storm dissipate there would still remain the potential for regeneration if a disturbance remains...when and if it finds more favorable conditions. at this time of year everything needs to be watched, even a "dead" storm. Harvey is a great example and even Katrina's evolution come to mind..

Agree,

Also this could be a temporary thing, there is a tendency to get overly "excited" when the sat presentation looks better
and the same when it degrades . Let's see what happens in the next 24 hours.

I think in this particular case is many of us were fooled and basing predictions (at least in my case) on what we thought the intensity was given the information available, not realizing it was weaker and much less organized in reality. If they'd had earlier recon missions (I'm at a complete loss as to why this was the first one) more than likely the model picture and discussion would've been vastly different.

[wx98]

The forecast has now been moved up to it becoming a hurricane by tomorrow evening, but that will likely be this evening

This didn’t age too well

[Hurricaneman]

Down to 50pm at 11pm, but intensity forecast down the road is unchanged.

I think the NHC is too strong before Hispaniola but could be conservative to very conservative after Hispaniola due to unknowns like interaction with Hispaniola