ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF has Dorian as a hurricane by 90 hours.

12z HWRF barely had a TD at this point.

HWRF now showing a much quicker rate of deepening, down to 973mb by 96 hours with 85 knot winds.

[MetroMike]

ICON 18z is showing........
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 718&fh=120

[SFLcane]

18z HRWF looks way north..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HRWF looks way north..

Not *way* north, but it's more north by a little less than a degree or so.

[WeatherEmperor]

Not worth a mention but I guess why not...18z nogaps has an intensifying cane nearing landfall in sfl.

I dont see that. If anything, 18z shifted east a lot




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[hohnywx]

18z HWRF has Dorian as a hurricane by 90 hours.

12z HWRF barely had a TD at this point.

HWRF now showing a much quicker rate of deepening, down to 973mb by 96 hours with 85 knot winds.

Ah the HWRF we all know and love seems to be back

[b0tzy29]

18z ICON continues to show a strong ridge and a west bend into South Florida, around Palm Beach:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2718&fh=36

The ICON has showed this further north then most throughout the model runs the last couple days. If it keeps verifying i think the west bend is possible.

[JtSmarts]

18z HWRF has Dorian as a hurricane by 90 hours.

12z HWRF barely had a TD at this point.

HWRF now showing a much quicker rate of deepening, down to 973mb by 96 hours with 85 knot winds.

Ah the HWRF we all know and love seems to be back

Yep 40mb stronger than 12z valid for 3z Sunday morning. That's not unreasonable though if conditions are that ideal.

[SFLcane]

Cat 6 on the HWRF...

[MetroMike]

Cat 6 on the HWRF...

938mb? Hope its no trend.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The track tonight is not extremely important to me as it will change. However, I am not liking every model coming in stronger tonight. Conditions are clearly going to be nice for Dorian.

[Frank P]

End of the 18z ICON run looks heading off to WNW or W and into the SE GOM...

[smithtim]

.

.

.....Focus on the next 2 days with models not long range ....

Yes yes and more yes. This is a scenario where common sense needs to prevail as it's all about land interactions... if lots and storm decays we're OK but if minimal land interaction and a storm with existing core moves into that perfect "boom em" area of warm water low shear environment by Bahamas then Florida has a problem on hands.

So really all the models can tell us right now is how he might approach the islands but until we watch him actually pass them we just really won't know. This is a dangerous situation as very much wait and see, like old days...

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Navgem ends a bit shift east away from sfla it had been showing for days. Lets see how it does at 0z tonight




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[SunnyThoughts]

The track tonight is not extremely important to me as it will change. However, I am not liking every model coming in stronger tonight. Conditions are clearly going to be nice for Dorian.

I was going to mention the same thing. What kind of data did both gfs's , the HWRF and the ICON all ingest...to make them come in so much stronger???

[Highteeld]

Cat 6 on the HWRF...

Somebody had to do it...

[Frank2]

Even though the plot initialization was wrong the GFS does show the NE US high moving E quickly - good news if correct...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Even though the plot initialization was wrong the GFS does show the NE US high moving E quickly - good news if correct...

Yea, I'm always suspicious of the GFS when it tries to pull this trick after it tried to take Irma well east of Florida.

[chaser1]

Not worth a mention but I guess why not...18z nogaps has an intensifying cane nearing landfall in sfl.

I dont see that. If anything, 18z shifted east a lot

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190827/7bd1e0c00b30afd48239a80a27285b92.png


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It did shift north east a little bit but does over the last couple of frames appear to be slowing down and bending more to the left at the end of this run. Granted, West Palm Beach to Stuart is further north then Key Largo..... i'd still refer to this possible scenario as potentially impacting "S. Florida". I think the point of the post was how this model run implied an increasing intensity verses the prior run. NOGAPS is showing lower pressures on it's approach to Florida then the prior run approaching the Homestead/Upper Keys area

[Blown Away]

GFS-Legacy says no to the CONUS...