ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile the 18z HWRF shows a Cat 4/5 off the Central Florida coast...

[Bocadude85]

For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)

Underestimated the ridge?

Also interesting how the UKMET almost nailed Irma’s track 5 days out. Wondering if it could be onto something with the wsw dive it shows Dorian taking in the Bahamas.

[AdamFirst]

Also interesting how the UKMET almost nailed Irma’s track 5 days out. Wondering if it could be onto something with the wsw dive it shows Dorian taking in the Bahamas.

UKMET has had various wins in its history. It's probably the best model nobody talks about. Didn't UKMET sniff out Matthew's track as well?

[jlauderdal]

The models are all over the place, we see this with a lot of Florida storms where they initially show a S.Fla threat and then slowly propagate up to the Carolinas only to swing back south to Florida. Hurricane Irma is a prime example, and we all know how that played out.

Everything seems to have a south florida hit at some point

[Emmett_Brown]

The majority of 18z GFS ensemble members continue to hit the east coast of FL. The a few stronger ones turn N before the FL coast: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL05

[Aric Dunn]

the ridging in the 18z Euro is interesting..
unlike the GFS's

it continues to build the ridging west. if it kept going possibly even wsw..

[alienstorm]

The 18z EURO shows a stout High that turns Dorian westward at 90 hrs it shows Dorian west of Abaco heading west toward South Florida.

[gatorcane]

HUGE change with the NOGAPS. Now shows a recurve along Florida east coast but looks to not make landfall in Florida:

[WeatherEmperor]

the ridging in the 18z Euro is interesting..
unlike the GFS's

it continues to build the ridging west. if it kept going possibly even wsw..

Are you able to provide an approximate lat and long of the storm as it heads west towards sfla??


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[otowntiger]

It seems as if a recurve or at least curve well north of Florida is now on the table looking at several models such as GFS, legacy GFS, JMA, to name a few.

[WeatherEmperor]

HUGE change with the NOGAPS. Now shows a recurve along Florida east coast but looks to not make landfall in Florida:

Where have we seen this movie before? The models show hit after hit on florida only to change and turn north to the carolinas or out to sea lol


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[beachman80]

That Ridge is the ball game. It's also the ball game for the GOM. If it's strong it gets in the GOM. If it's weak, it could ride up the east coast or miss the States altogether.

[Blown Away]

Something getting fishy on 00z guidance for the CONUS...

[Aric Dunn]

the ridging in the 18z Euro is interesting..
unlike the GFS's

it continues to build the ridging west. if it kept going possibly even wsw..

Are you able to provide an approximate lat and long of the storm as it heads west towards sfla??


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[img]https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166505098589147136[/img]

[WeatherEmperor]

the ridging in the 18z Euro is interesting..
unlike the GFS's

it continues to build the ridging west. if it kept going possibly even wsw..

Are you able to provide an approximate lat and long of the storm as it heads west towards sfla??


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[img]https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166505098589147136[/img]

Sorry Aric. Appears to be broken link. Cannot see it


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[Hypercane_Kyle]

For what it's worth, when Irma was at this longitude, (It was further north in latitude) Models had it clipping e. Florida and then making landfall in South Carolina and the official track suggested Savannah.

Link to old Irma model graphic to avoid confusion (Not going to post the image)

Underestimated the ridge?

Yes. The ECMWF was the only model (IIRC, maybe the UKMET too) that correctly saw the ridge being stronger and thus Irma ended up being further west (west coast of FL) by the time it took the turn north. As you know, Irma ended up hitting Cuba, when most of the US models showed Irma going well north of Cuba.

I'd be interested in seeing how the ECMWF has done in predicting the 500mb setup vs the rest of the models over the last 5 days, if anyone has something like that.

[Aric Dunn]

Are you able to provide an approximate lat and long of the storm as it heads west towards sfla??


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[url][url]https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166505098589147136[/url][/url]

Sorry Aric. Appears to be broken link. Cannot see it


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https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166505098589147136

[gatorcane]

TVCN yet again north of NHC. Trend has been north with the models all day, will it continue?

[toad strangler]

I posted Maue’s Tweet with the 18z Euro graphic a page back

Post #1100

[toad strangler]

TVCN yet again north of NHC. Trend has been north with the models all day, will it continue?

https://i.postimg.cc/RVRGf11D/storm-05-ens.gif

We’ve seen it before!