ATL: DORIAN - Models

[HDGator]

18z Euro has Dorian almost missing PR to the east at hour 24, then turning and moving due west between hour 75 and hour 90

Any idea how the 18z finished? It was showing a pretty strong ridge and a hard left turn while Dorian was still a few hundred miles offcoast. The GFS has been eroding the ridge with each run and now opening up a potential recurve along the coast.
This seems to be the key question right now.

[NDG]

18z Euro has Dorian almost missing PR to the east at hour 24, then turning and moving due west between hour 75 and hour 90

That's similar to the early 0z UKMET

[AdamFirst]

18z Euro has Dorian almost missing PR to the east at hour 24, then turning and moving due west between hour 75 and hour 90

Any idea how the 18z finished? It was showing a pretty strong ridge and a hard left turn while Dorian was still a few hundred miles offcoast. The GFS has been eroding the ridge with each run and now opening up a potential recurve along the coast.
This seems to be the key question right now.

That's how it finished. The 06z and 18z Euro plots only go out to 120hr.

[SunnyThoughts]

00z Icon coming in ( for what its worth as well) clips the eastern part of Puerto Rico...Due east of South Fla...moving west. 984mb
Hour 114 about to hit south Fla 974 mb

[HDGator]

18z Euro has Dorian almost missing PR to the east at hour 24, then turning and moving due west between hour 75 and hour 90

Any idea how the 18z finished? It was showing a pretty strong ridge and a hard left turn while Dorian was still a few hundred miles offcoast. The GFS has been eroding the ridge with each run and now opening up a potential recurve along the coast.
This seems to be the key question right now.

That's how it finished. The 06z and 18z Euro plots only go out to 120hr.

Thanks! I guess I'll have to stay up for the 00z GFS and Euro. Time to put some coffee on...

[Highteeld]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This ULL/Erin MLC merger that Levi mention as imparting some shear almost looks to develop into a TC in its own right in the GOMEX on a lot of runs. I wonder what role that might play.

[GeneratorPower]

00z Icon coming in ( for what its worth as well) clips the eastern part of Puerto Rico...Due east of South Fla...moving west. 984mb
Hour 114 about to hit south Fla 974 mb

Holy cow. Andrew 2 in track, but intensity????

[sma10]

00z Icon coming in ( for what its worth as well) clips the eastern part of Puerto Rico...Due east of South Fla...moving west. 984mb
Hour 114 about to hit south Fla 974 mb

ICON holding fast to its idea of a 48 hr run dead west heading. A bit slower tho on this run

[caneseddy]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019082800/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_38.png

To my untrained eye..looks like a slight south shift from the earlier run which had it just a bit north of WPB..this looks like landfall in extreme southern Palm Beach/extreme northern Broward (Boca Raton/Deerfield Beach are)

[SunnyThoughts]

Hour 138 Icon...headed into the gulf 996 mb, after traversing the peninsula.

[Kazmit]

00z GFS running... almost misses PR to the east. Barely weakens it at all.

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS now just clips eastern Puerto Rico

[AdamFirst]

Hour 138 Icon...headed into the gulf 996 mb, after traversing the peninsula.

Landfall in southern Palm Beach County in the low 970mb range

[NDG]

ICON was another model that was persistent during the last couple of days of Dorian at striking P.R., I thought it was crazy back then.
So we have the UKMET, Euro and ICON pointing to either S FL or central FL while the GFS, HWRF and latest consensus TVCN pointing more towards N Florida.
Another classic battle setting up.

[tolakram]

0Z GFS so far

[Blown Away]

00z ICON into PBC/Broward as Cat 2/3 and emerges in GOM..

[tolakram]

Good ole GFS also clipping PR on the east side.

[tolakram]

GFS trend

[Kazmit]

Yeesh...