ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#121 Postby StruThiO » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yes,upper.


Ok thanks, I figured a low-level mission was a pipe dream :lol: awesome news regardless!!!
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#122 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:45 pm

In case anyone asks about why they are doing this and there is $$$ alocated.

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1176913837544620032


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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#123 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:48 pm

Actually the NOAA42 P-3 is a low-level reconnaissance aircraft.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#124 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:13 pm

I asked about the P-3 on Twitter. StruThiO ,there is your dream. :D

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1176922020988080133


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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#125 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:15 pm

That's about 750 mb.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#126 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:16 pm

weird seeing talks of this being a fish storm with models consistently showing heavy impacts to the Azores.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#127 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:23 pm

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1176916433076391936


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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#128 Postby StruThiO » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:27 pm

Wow, we are beyond privileged to get low and high level recon into Lorenzo.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#129 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:43 pm

aperson wrote:weird seeing talks of this being a fish storm with models consistently showing heavy impacts to the Azores.


According to the internet, not a Caribbean or CONUS threat == fish

Case in point, every Bermuda landfall that is praised as being "out to sea"
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#130 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:27 pm

plasticup wrote:
aperson wrote:weird seeing talks of this being a fish storm with models consistently showing heavy impacts to the Azores.


According to the internet, not a Caribbean or CONUS threat == fish

Case in point, every Bermuda landfall that is praised as being "out to sea"


Bermuda is located west of 64.5 W.
Lorenzo?
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#131 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:47 pm

Getting stronger! Up to 90 mph. NHC now calls for high-end Cat 3 by 36 hours; I’d say we have a great shot at Cat 4 :double:
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#132 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:09 pm

Not much yet

Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#133 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:22 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2019 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 14:32:36 N Lon : 37:03:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 984.6mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -62.5C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#134 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:48 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Not much yet

Image

That's actually showing some degradation from earlier. The AMSR2 pass from 1527Z had a mostly complete eyewall. It also showed dry air curling in around the northern portion of the circulation, and I imagine it ended up getting ingested. Based on the degradation seen in the microwave imagery, it probably set Lorenzo back an entire day. Im also expecting the next eyewall attempt to be from the bands surrounding the core right now.

Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#135 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:49 pm

Possible nascent eye forming

Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#136 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:05 pm

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1177010133496471552


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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#137 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:49 pm

00z best track up to 85 kts.
AL, 13, 2019092600, , BEST, 0, 145N, 376W, 85, 974, HU
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#138 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:55 pm

Pinhole eye?
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#139 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:05 pm

Kazmit wrote:Pinhole eye?

If it is then hang on 8-)
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#140 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:31 pm

Actf puts me at a cat 2

Oooooooooo
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