WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

The sharp hook from the col to the steering ridge kinda reminds me of Lupit from 2009.

[Nancy Smar]

[Div]WTPQ50 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1928 KAMMURI (1928)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 10.9N 147.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 12.2N 142.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 280600UTC 13.9N 140.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 290600UTC 15.9N 140.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 300600UTC 15.9N 138.7E 260NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 010600UTC 15.8N 135.1E 350NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

[/Div]

[Nancy Smar]

TPPN10 PGTW 260629
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (KAMMURI)
B. 26/0550Z
C. 11.06N
D. 147.30E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 2.0. DBO DT.
CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH
BETTER DEFINED LLCC.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

29W KAMMURI 191126 0600 11.0N 147.3E WPAC 35 996

[mrbagyo]

There's the center

[doomhaMwx]

ECMWF notably more north now. I wonder if this is the beginning of it leaning more towards the GFS solution, which a lot of ens members seem to agree with.
But we'll never be sure until Kammuri moves past the complicated/complex steering environment it will encounter shortly after passing south of Guam.

[dexterlabio]

06z GFS run is out but there is a gap between 180 at 222 hrs so I cant quite figure out if there is a landfall or Kammuri fizzled from a 950mb typhoon in less than 2days.

[mrbagyo]

06z GFS run is out but there is a gap between 180 at 222 hrs so I cant quite figure out if there is a landfall or Kammuri fizzled from a 950mb typhoon in less than 2days.

Saw the 06z operational run, it shows Kammuri making landfall in Quezon Province / Aurora Province but at a severly weakened state.

[dexterlabio]

Yeah I just saw the entire run now...what seems weird though is that the storm is still trying to move poleward when the STR to the north is building up, in that case rapid weakening is the only outcome since it is "going against the tide."

[mrbagyo]

Small dude trailing Kammuri : Am I a joke to you?

[aspen]

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/rbtop_lalo-animated9.gif

Small dude trailing Kammuri : Am I a joke to you?

Is it possible that could become a tropical depression or storm as well? It appears to be the “94Wb” disturbance some of the global runs were showing over the past few days.

[1900hurricane]

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/rbtop_lalo-animated9.gif

Small dude trailing Kammuri : Am I a joke to you?

Is it possible that could become a tropical depression or storm as well? It appears to be the “94Wb” disturbance some of the global runs were showing over the past few days.

That does appear to be that second piece of vorticity that came around out of the NEMT with Kammuri. It actually reminds me a bit of 95C right behind Hurricane Lane '18 near Hawaii. ScatSat did manage to hit it, but it shows that it isn't closed, just a modestly sharp trough axis with good vorticity at the moment.

[mrbagyo]

^ so, does it deserve mention or tagging?

In other news, PAGASA is now keeping tabs on Kammuri even if it's still outside PAR. Good call IMO.
 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1199331064335855617

[1900hurricane]

I might throw a Low on it. Some guidance still develops it a little, but it might have trouble closing anything off with 15 kt of surface trade wind flow on the south side of the axis.

[Highteeld]

29W KAMMURI 191126 1200 11.3N 145.2E WPAC 40 996

[Highteeld]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM 29W
Tuesday 26nov19 Time: 1147 UTC
Latitude: 11.67 Longitude: 145.47
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 21 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 993 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.75
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.85
RMW: 93 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1003
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 11 Day: 26 Time (UTC): 0600

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[Highteeld]

TPPN10 PGTW 261511

A. TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI)

B. 26/1430Z

C. 11.40N

D. 144.58E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5. PT IS 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[aspen]

12z GFS run is loading in. So far, it’s showing Kammuri only reaching 14 N before taking its SW turn, instead of 16-17 N.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1199362224994889733

[1900hurricane]

12z GFS run is loading in. So far, it’s showing Kammuri only reaching 14 N before taking its SW turn, instead of 16-17 N.

Looks fairly similar to the 00Z ECMWF operational run.

[aspen]

12z GFS run is loading in. So far, it’s showing Kammuri only reaching 14 N before taking its SW turn, instead of 16-17 N.

Looks fairly similar to the 00Z ECMWF operational run.

The 00z Euro has a turn starting around 130E and remains at a higher latitude (15-16 N vs 13-14 N for the 12z GFS). This is probably because the Euro forecasts a merger with 94Wb between Thursday and Friday, causing a massive jump in latitude from 12.3 N to 15.1 N. The GFS, meanwhile, starts the SW turn near 137-139E and keeps Kammuri between 13-14 N as it makes its way to the Philippines, which keeps it within some of the highest OHC west of 150E.