ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

Not a TD. Weak, elongated low pressure area. No organized convection. However, I do think that this will become Dorian as it tracks offshore of the Carolinas this weekend then heads out to sea like Chantal. I don't see any Gulf threat. Most of the rain should stay east of Florida.

http://wxman57.com/images/98La.JPG

Hey 57 so this models are incorrect? Most track 98L across the state.

https://i.imgur.com/fy4BXmd.png

The weak low is already well east of where the models had it for 15Z. Ignore the models starting with TA or C. The UKMET model (dark blue) looks good. Consensus model (starting with TV) is skewed left because the GFS takes it into the Gulf, which doesn't appear likely. Most convection should stay on the east side of the low. I think the center will skirt the coast of Florida over the next 24 hours then turn northeastward. TD/TS on Sunday, well east of the SC coast. May impact Nova Scotia or Newfoundland next week.

[psyclone]

The folks at the WPC agree with WXman as they keep the majority of the QPF the next few days up and down the spine of the peninsula (consistent with diurnal convection) and heavier rains east of the state with what is (likely soon to be Dorian). This is really a reminder that the basin is finally awakening as it tends to do in latter August.

[GCANE]

Inflow is speeding up into that new tower.

[Aric Dunn]

Inflow is speeding up into that new tower.

yeah llc looks to be building slightly east on radar into that convection that continues to build.

[boca]

It looks like we will stay dry according to wxman57 because I don’t see any west movement with 98l.Actually drifting north.

[wxman57]

My first attempt at a track. Had to completely ignore the GFS, as it kept a low center in the Gulf for quite a while. Closer to the ECMWF for now. Will take a look at the 12Z model runs and update the track accordingly.

[GCANE]

Nice radial cirrus outflow on the west side of that new tower.

[NotSparta]

Not a TD. Weak, elongated low pressure area. No organized convection. However, I do think that this will become Dorian as it tracks offshore of the Carolinas this weekend then heads out to sea like Chantal. I don't see any Gulf threat. Most of the rain should stay east of Florida.

http://wxman57.com/images/98La.JPG

Hey 57 so this models are incorrect? Most track 98L across the state.

https://i.imgur.com/fy4BXmd.png

The weak low is already well east of where the models had it for 15Z. Ignore the models starting with TA or C. The UKMET model (dark blue) looks good. Consensus model (starting with TV) is skewed left because the GFS takes it into the Gulf, which doesn't appear likely. Most convection should stay on the east side of the low. I think the center will skirt the coast of Florida over the next 24 hours then turn northeastward. TD/TS on Sunday, well east of the SC coast. May impact Nova Scotia or Newfoundland next week.

Even if it does get that far west it'll be rather weak anyway

[Aric Dunn]

Nice radial cirrus outflow on the west side of that new tower.

yeah best looking non TD/TC ever lol

[Aric Dunn]

Thumb ridge holding strong. it extends up through the 400 mb range. this is not going to be moving all too much .. except for center reformations/migrations.

[alienstorm]

Per latest radar loop LLC appears to be 37 miles east of Miami.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is filling in around the center. Already a TC should be a TD later today offically.

[nativefloridian]

Convection is filling in around the center. Already a TC should be a TD later today offically.

Aric....could you give an approximate location of center. Thanks

[tolakram]

Convection is filling in around the center. Already a TC should be a TD later today offically.

I think we are aware of your opinion Aric.

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is filling in around the center. Already a TC should be a TD later today offically.

I think we are aware of your opinion Aric.

You sure ? I can repeat it a few more times ? lol

[wxman57]

Convection is filling in around the center. Already a TC should be a TD later today offically.

Not sure how you justify that statement. Center is where I put the red crosshairs, with a surface trof extending SSW from there. Nothing to support TD status, much less TC status. Just a broad, elongated low pressure area with relatively light winds around it. Now, I do think it will develop, but it hasn't developed yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is filling in around the center. Already a TC should be a TD later today offically.

Not sure how you justify that statement. Center is where I put the red crosshairs, with a surface trof extending SSW from there. Nothing to support TD status, much less TC status. Just a broad, elongated low pressure area with relatively light winds around it. Now, I do think it will develop, but it hasn't developed yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/98Lb.JPG

Once upon a time, there was no convection near the center.. then "let there be convection"



Hence convection building around the center.. still shallow and just initial development. so it wont show up on your pretty picture yet.. lol

[jlauderdal]

My first attempt at a track. Had to completely ignore the GFS, as it kept a low center in the Gulf for quite a while. Closer to the ECMWF for now. Will take a look at the 12Z model runs and update the track accordingly.

http://wxman57.com/images/98LTrack.JPG

im preparing for a landfalling wxman 57 system

[GCANE]

Definitely tightening up on radar.
Cumulus over the glades looks to be turning more into the circulation.