WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#141 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:44 am

2019NOV05 071000 7.3 905.5 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.37 -78.22 EYE 22 IR 77.7 19.74 -151.19 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#142 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:12 am

raw 7.5

2019NOV05 074000 7.4 902.4 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.32 -78.73 EYE 22 IR 77.7 19.76 -151.16 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#143 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:12 am

2019NOV05 084000 7.4 902.4 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.08 -78.58 EYE 21 IR 77.7 19.80 -151.05 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#144 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:29 am

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR 24W (24W) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11050755
SATCON: MSLP = 923 hPa MSW = 146 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 140.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 135 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 185 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 4.1 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 902 hPa 152 knots Scene: CDO Date: NOV050740
CIMSS AMSU: 953 hPa 94 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 11042334
ATMS: 934.9 hPa 118.0 knots Date: 11050300
SSMIS: 936.0 hPa 129.0 knots Date: 11050755
CIRA ATMS: 964 hPa 85 knots Date:
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#145 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:43 am

Tied with Hagibis in winds

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°50' (19.8°)
E151°05' (151.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#146 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:45 am

Image

The CDO has significantly shrunk in size -
would that mean it's tightening its windfield?
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#147 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:47 am

Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#148 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:12 am



2019NOV05 094000 7.4 902.4 152.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.39 -79.57 EYE 20 IR 77.7 19.82 -150.98 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#149 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:16 am

Next image to calculate

Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#150 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:43 am

2019NOV05 101000 7.4 902.4 152.0 7.4 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.65 -80.16 EYE 20 IR 77.7 19.85 -150.92 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#151 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:45 am

It has now surpassed the 100° CDO-eye temp difference.

JTWC might go with 130-135 knot @12z :lol:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#152 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:47 am

:froze:

Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#153 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:49 am

It looks like Halong is going nuclear....

+20.6 C eye, CDG ring forming, ADT estimate of 152 kt/T#7.4 :double:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#154 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:54 am

Also, no EWRC coming anytime soon: https://mobile.twitter.com/KeviShader/s ... 9980906496
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#155 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:12 am

Hayabusa wrote:Nighttime is coming we'll see if it can match or even beat Hagibis' raw T7.8 peak, if it does Halong would at least reach an ADT CI of 7.5.


Hello Hagibis
2019NOV05 104000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.58 -80.85 EYE 19 IR 77.7 19.88 -150.87 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#156 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:16 am

Hayabusa wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Nighttime is coming we'll see if it can match or even beat Hagibis' raw T7.8 peak, if it does Halong would at least reach an ADT CI of 7.5.


Hello Hagibis
2019NOV05 104000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.58 -80.85 EYE 19 IR 77.7 19.88 -150.87 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0


An easy 150-155 kt storm right there. There’s no reason for the JTWC to assess it as anything less than a 150 kt Cat 5 for the next update. I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets to 160 kt; cloud tops are still cooling.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#157 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:17 am

Even more colder

Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#158 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:42 am

2019NOV05 111000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.73 -81.42 EYE 19 IR 77.7 19.89 -150.82 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#159 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:48 am

Almost a full -85 C CDO: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... rnerds.png
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#160 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:10 am

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR HALONG (24W) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11051044
SATCON: MSLP = 907 hPa MSW = 155 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 151.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 134 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 185 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.5 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 899 hPa 155 knots Scene: CDO Date: NOV051110
CIMSS AMSU: 913 hPa 147 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 11051044
ATMS: 934.9 hPa 118.0 knots Date: 11050300
SSMIS: 936.0 hPa 129.0 knots Date: 11050755
CIRA ATMS: 955 hPa 97 knots Date:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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