ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico has tall mountains the tallest at a little over 4,000 feet in the Cordillera Central apart from other less tall ones there and also the El Yunque rain forest that has mountains at over 1,500 feet.In past events that had Storms and Hurricanes move thru the island they have weakened.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'm thinking that Dorian will miss PR to east with true circ. center and encounter more shear from two different vectors . However what looks a bit more likely this evening is the ULL ending up to NE of Dorian if it even survives the onslaught. I can easily see the entire right side of the storm at a minimum getting sheared and exposed late tomorrow evening. Mid level cloud tops are moving one direction over east Hisp. and the opposite on the far west tip of PR. If that holds up by tomorrow then the HNC intensity is conservatively strong for the official forecast- which makes sense.

https://col.st/zeA45

I should add ( and I did) that if it survives all that it will be well ventilated and have a lot more moisture to work with and could really ramp up Friday morning.

[abajan]

Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Key Words from the NHC

Yep. I wonder how many people have watched this video. The thing that struck me most was where Mr Cangialosi states, "The center of the storm ends up staying inside the cone for roughly 2 out of every 3 of our forecasts. This also means that the center of the storm will sometimes move outside of the cone, occurring once out of every 3 of our forecasts".

[Kazmit]

Puerto Rico has tall mountains the tallest at a little over 4,000 feet in the Cordillera Central apart from other less tall ones there and also the El Yunque rain forest that has mountains at over 1,500 feet.In past events that had Storms and Hurricsanes move thru the island they have weakened.

You're right, it knocked Maria down three categories.

[Aric Dunn]

if it does not start turning more wnw it is going to pass over eastern PR or not at all ...

[Kazmit]

if it does not start turning more wnw it is going to pass over eastern PR or not at all ...

If it misses PR to the east entirely, that would certainly make things interesting.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The way I see it EVERYTHING hinges on Dorian's interaction or lack thereof with Hispaniola. If Dorian survives its encounter with the Island or bypasses that landmass altogether, I'd be very worried if I were in Florida, the Bahamas, exact.

My prayers are with everyone in the potential path, stay safe.

[AutoPenalti]

The problem with hitting mountains is that Dorian lacks any sort of solid core. Which means it won’t really disrupt any kind of organization like what a hurricane would. It’s messy and it could easily develop another CoC like what it did this afternoon.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The problem with hitting mountains is that Dorian lacks any sort of solid core. Which means it won’t really disrupt any kind of organization like what a hurricane would. It’s messy and it could easily develop another CoC like what it did this afternoon.

It would shred the entire mass forcing it to reorganize once it emerged it might even degenerate into an open wave. If Dorien encounters the mountains of the big island it is good news for everyone else.

[Hammy]

The problem with hitting mountains is that Dorian lacks any sort of solid core. Which means it won’t really disrupt any kind of organization like what a hurricane would.

That would be more true of a system that is functionally a large gyre--Dorian is so small and tight (even if not very strong) that even St Lucia was able to disrupt it--going over the Greater Antilles would likely make it difficult to reorganize.

[AutoPenalti]

The problem with hitting mountains is that Dorian lacks any sort of solid core. Which means it won’t really disrupt any kind of organization like what a hurricane would.

That would be more true of a system that is functionally a large gyre--Dorian is so small and tight (even if not very strong) that even St Lucia was able to disrupt it--going over the Greater Antilles would likely make it difficult to reorganize.

It could just as easily reform a CoC further north away from the mountains.

[lsuhurricane]

Legacy GFS going with a Southern FL approach

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The problem with hitting mountains is that Dorian lacks any sort of solid core. Which means it won’t really disrupt any kind of organization like what a hurricane would.

That would be more true of a system that is functionally a large gyre--Dorian is so small and tight (even if not very strong) that even St Lucia was able to disrupt it--going over the Greater Antilles would likely make it difficult to reorganize.

It could just as easily reform a CoC further north away from the mountains.

That's not very likely for such a small system which has been struggling with dry air. It is more likely a trip over the mountains would destroy Dorian.

[p1nheadlarry]

Puerto Rico has tall mountains the tallest at a little over 4,000 feet in the Cordillera Central apart from other less tall ones there and also the El Yunque rain forest that has mountains at over 1,500 feet.In past events that had Storms and Hurricsanes move thru the island they have weakened.

You're right, it knocked Maria down three categories.

Knocked Hugo down 2 (operationally just one but 130 mph is now a 4) and Hugo was moving faster than Maria and didn't traverse the entire island. Meanwhile Georges made landfall on several countries (PR, DR, Haiti, Conch Republic, US mainland) and dropped just two.

[Frank2]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

I’m still not believing these north scenarios one bit.

[BlowHard]

The way I see it EVERYTHING hinges on Dorian's interaction or lack thereof with Hispaniola. If Dorian survives its encounter with the Island or bypasses that landmass altogether, I'd be very worried if I were in Florida, the Bahamas, exact.

My prayers are with everyone in the potential path, stay safe.

It looks like a safe bet that it won't interact with Hispaniola. PR has mountains, though.

[Kingarabian]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

Looks like the trend in the track continues to be east. I just hope it goes out to sea.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 18Z GFS has Dorian making landfall in - Savannah, the NE US high moving east a bit faster: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82718&fh=6

Looks like the trend in the track continues to be east. I just hope it goes out to sea.

Could easily flip right back the next day though. This is 5 days out.

[sma10]

Btw, another reason why being further east has helped Dorian. If he had tracked like the GFS had predicted (towards the middle of Hisp) he would now be approaching death from TD 6. As it is, he is avoiding the worst of the shear