ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

Aric about what latitude is it at 90?

Heading just north of due west at 90 hours just east of grand bahama island

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance.

12z Track Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[jlauderdal]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

it doesnt getting any more dangerous for florida than an intensifying system coming through the Bahamas in a low shear, high sst environment..the nhc is going to ramp up the intensity on at least the next two discos regardless of which solution they are leaning towards gfs vs euro, I suspect they come south the next two advisories unless the next euro run pulls a 180

[BensonTCwatcher]

43/52 of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members and 18/21 06z GFS members (2 members go through the Straits of FL for GOM landfalls, 1 does not develop) have an east coast Florida landfall. That's 61/73 members (including master/control) or ~84% likely outcome.

Interesting analysis. Also interesting is the ICON vs the GFS and Euro. The ICON had a better track operationally but it sure does not have the intensity correct as of now, and handles Erin much differently that what is verifying. So just because the track is correct is not much use if it's for the wrong reason. This is why HNC uses the ensembles as they do. I must say though it would be cool to add a climo overlay to the current combined ensemble.

[USTropics]

43/52 of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members and 18/21 06z GFS members (2 members go through the Straits of FL for GOM landfalls, 1 does not develop) have an east coast Florida landfall. That's 61/73 members (including master/control) or ~84% likely outcome.

Interesting analysis. Also interesting is the ICON vs the GFS and Euro. The ICON had a better track operationally but it sure does not have the intensity correct as of now, and handles Erin much differently that what is verifying. So just because the track is correct is not much use if it's for the wrong reason. This is why HNC uses the ensembles as they do. I must say though it would be cool to add a climo overlay to the current combined ensemble.

If Dorian does end up tracking just east of PR, the ICON was one of the first runs to show this possibility, and consistently so. 12 run trend of the ICON:

[Blown Away]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

it doesnt getting any more dangerous for florida than an intensifying system coming through the Bahamas in a low shear, high sst environment..the nhc is going to ramp up the intensity on at least the next two discos regardless of which solution they are leaning towards gfs vs euro, I suspect they come south the next two advisories unless the next euro run pulls a 180

Meanwhile, 12z TVCN Consensus is now @50 miles S of NHC it was @60 miles N on 06z... Likely S shift in day 4/5 in 11am update...

[ronjon]

The NHC track at day 5 is now north of the 12z consensus of models. Might be a slight south shift (or leave until the global 12z guidance is run) next advisory.

[chris_fit]

If Dorian does end up tracking just east of PR, the ICON was one of the first runs to show this possibility, and consistently so. 12 run trend of the ICON:
https://i.ibb.co/VpnX7MG/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh15-trend.gif

Good catch there - It's also one of the W/S outliers....

[b0tzy29]

The main thing to watch in my opinion is how these models handle this ridge that is going to build in here very shortly. At 96 hours, the EURO seems to have a stronger ridge that has an edge that extends westward into the mainland US. The GFS at 96 hours shows a weaker ridge, with an edge that barely touches the East Coast of CONUS. If the EURO validates i think the storm will stay much further south. If the GFS validates, i could see this thing getting pretty far north.

[ObsessedMiami]

NWS Miami is buying into the south shift because they have Saturday night and Sunday as Tropical Storm conditions possible in their graphical forecast

[tolakram]

Here's the error report for Dorian.



source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

[chris_fit]

Here's the error report for Dorian.

https://i.imgur.com/gTpotGT.png

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

Wow, UKMET seems like a clear winner in the longer range, by far.

[tolakram]

How about the Ukie's 96 hour performance.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami is buying into the south shift because they have Saturday night and Sunday as Tropical Storm conditions possible in their graphical forecast

NWS WFOs doing their due dilligence since they're in the cone. I'd say all the WFOs across the state should be talking about the potential of TS/hurricane conditions as the storm approaches.

[jlauderdal]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

it doesnt getting any more dangerous for florida than an intensifying system coming through the Bahamas in a low shear, high sst environment..the nhc is going to ramp up the intensity on at least the next two discos regardless of which solution they are leaning towards gfs vs euro, I suspect they come south the next two advisories unless the next euro run pulls a 180

Meanwhile, 12z TVCN Consensus is now @50 miles S of NHC it was @60 miles N on 06z... Likely S shift in day 4/5 in 11am update...

yep, no surprise based on what we have been seeing in the latest cycle especially the euro..nhc wont do anything crazy like we can do here with tracks but will slowly bring it south while upping the intensity, melbourne to the cape is really looking a sweet spot at least for now but i give myself 150 miles at 5 days..by tonight i will be down to 100 miles +/-50 from the center of my landfall prediction, going with the euro all in until further notice

Craig Setzer @CraigSetzer

Now that land disruption is less likely because it's tracking farther east today, it's more likely Dorian will become a major hurricane in coming days. Should be no surprise if you start hearing it in NHC forecasts. Small intense hurricane that's a threat to Florida #SetzerSays

[SFLcane]

6z euro holding to the same solution maybe slightly south. Deepening hurricane coming into bahamas at 90 hours.

Aric about what latitude is it at 90?

Heading just north of due west at 90 hours just east of grand bahama island

Graphic????

So it trended south?

[Storm Battered]

43/52 of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members and 18/21 06z GFS members (2 members go through the Straits of FL for GOM landfalls, 1 does not develop) have an east coast Florida landfall. That's 61/73 members (including master/control) or ~84% likely outcome.

6/52 members of the 00z ECMWF recurve or do not develop, 1/21 of the 06z GFS members does not develop. That's 7/73 members, or ~10%.

So in another words, 90% chance that it will strike the US at this point.

You mean CONUS? Puerto Rico looks almost certain.

[tolakram]

Aric about what latitude is it at 90?

Heading just north of due west at 90 hours just east of grand bahama island

Graphic????

So it trended south?

There is no publically available graphic unless it gets posted on Twitter. You can pay WeatherModels.com a monthly fee for access.

[SFLcane]

Latitude on 06z Euro??

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET has been spectacular so far. It does have it's moments.