ATL: DORIAN - Models

[northjaxpro]

Here's the error report for Dorian.

https://i.imgur.com/gTpotGT.png

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

Wow, UKMET seems like a clear winner in the longer range, by far.

UKMET has performed solidly thus far to this juncture with Dorian for sure.

[tolakram]

Latitude on 06z Euro??

at 90 hours it appears to be over or just south of Coopers Town in the Bahamas. Moving west / NW.

edit: correction, looking at a closer view.

[USTropics]

I believe the track error graphic has only 1 run for 96 hours in the data set currently.

[Aric Dunn]

Latitude on 06z Euro??

Grand bahama

[AJC3]

NWS Miami is buying into the south shift because they have Saturday night and Sunday as Tropical Storm conditions possible in their graphical forecast

NWS WFOs doing their due dilligence since they're in the cone. I'd say all the WFOs across the state should be talking about the potential of TS/hurricane conditions as the storm approaches.

The current 7-day forecasts from all of the Florida WFOs are using wind and TS/HURCN wind probability fields generated by NHC from each track and intensity forecast. The wording of "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Possible" is automated by the formatters we use and is dependent upon numerical probability thresholds being reached. These thresholds get incrementally higher the shorter out in time you go. They should (1) match up between offices and (2) show continuity or at least trends over time.

These fields only go out to 5 days, so you won't see it beyond day 5 (in this case Sunday night).

[chris_fit]

The current 7-day forecasts from all of the Florida WFOs are using wind and TS/HURCN wind probability fields generated by NHC from each track and intensity forecast. The wording of "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Possible" is automated by the formatters we use and is dependent upon numerical probability thresholds being reached. These thresholds get incrementally higher the shorter out in time you go. They should (1) match up between offices and (2) show continuity or at least trends over time.

These fields only go out to 5 days, so you won't see it beyond day 5 (in this case Sunday night).

Great info. Can confirm - seeing "Tropical
Storm
Conditions
Possible" in Parrish FL (Just south of Tampa)

[AdamFirst]

The current 7-day forecasts from all of the Florida WFOs are using wind and TS/HURCN wind probability fields generated by NHC from each track and intensity forecast. The wording of "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Possible" is automated by the formatters we use and is dependent upon numerical probability thresholds being reached. These thresholds get incrementally higher the shorter out in time you go. They should (1) match up between offices and (2) show continuity or at least trends over time.

These fields only go out to 5 days, so you won't see it beyond day 5 (in this case Sunday night).

Ah, I never knew they incorporated that. Thanks for the insight!

[Torgo]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166703023743066112

[chris_fit]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166703023743066112

Can't really zoom in, but looks slightly N of the 00z run

[AJC3]

NWS Miami is buying into the south shift because they have Saturday night and Sunday as Tropical Storm conditions possible in their graphical forecast

NWS WFOs doing their due dilligence since they're in the cone. I'd say all the WFOs across the state should be talking about the potential of TS/hurricane conditions as the storm approaches.

The current 7-day forecasts from all of the Florida WFOs are using wind and TS/HURCN wind probability fields generated by NHC from each track and intensity forecast. The wording of "Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Possible" is automated by the formatters we use and is dependent upon numerical probability thresholds being reached. These thresholds get incrementally higher the shorter out in time you go. They should (1) match up between offices and (2) show continuity or at least trends over time.

These fields only go out to 5 days, so you won't see it beyond day 5 (in this case Sunday night).

PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 37(46)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 38(65)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 37(50)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 33(61)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 26(51)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 19(61)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)


$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

To help you visualize what I was talking about in my previous post, here's the text version of this product, focusing only on points within or just outside my office's forecast boundaries. Graphical numerical probability fields are generated for each 12 hour forecast period. If the probability at any point in these fields reached a certain number, "TS/HURCN CONDITIONS POSSIBLE..." is automatically placed into both the 7-day public forecasts (only within days 1-5, as I mentioned earlier), and the coastal marine forecasts that go out to 60 miles offshore.

[Jr0d]

Cocoa Beach's official forecast(based on NWS in Melbourne) has tropical storm conditions possible on Saturday and Hurricane conditions for Sunday this.

I believe they will start launching weather weather balloons ever 6 hours over most of Florida soon. This with the Gulf stream data should give us much better picture when all the data is added in. How the ridge fills in is so crucial.

I am eagerly awaiting the latest from the UKMET right now. So far it has been the best performer.

[plasticup]

I know it's a little to early to sound the all clear for NW FL (Panhandle) but it is good to see that neither the GFS nor the Euro traverse the peninsula and end up in our neck of the woods (Panama City). We cannot handle much more than a strong thunderstorm right now. Stayed up last night to watch the Euro 00z run and breathed a little sigh of relief to see it re-curve before reaching us...still keeping a weary eye on things but I am cautiously optimistic right now...

The panhandle is very much under the gun here. 7 days out the models miss it by just a few hundred miles - that is far from reassuring.

[AJC3]

I believe they will start launching weather weather balloons ever 6 hours over most of Florida soon. <snip>

You would be correct! This was coordinated last night and will start today. All of the NWS upper air sites in the southeastern US (though at least Cape Hatteras) will be doing releases at 18Z and 06Z. This includes the Cape Canaveral AFS.

[JPmia]

If folks want to see the graphics from the 06Z Euro just go to Weather Underground's Category 6 blog. Not sure the reason why people can't post it here if it's posted in other places such as Twitter. The cat is out of bag by then.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Tenac ... at6-widget

[NDG]

6/52 members of the 00z ECMWF recurve or do not develop, 1/21 of the 06z GFS members does not develop. That's 7/73 members, or ~10%.

So in another words, 90% chance that it will strike the US at this point.

You mean CONUS? Puerto Rico looks almost certain.

The way things are looking it will not make landfall in Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, yes.

[tolakram]

If folks want to see the graphics from the 06Z Euro just go to Weather Underground's Category 6 blog. Not sure the reason why people can't post it here if it's posted in other places such as Twitter. The cat is out of bag by then.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Tenac ... at6-widget

I have explained why repeatedly. If weather underground has purchased a commercial license to the data they may post on a commercial site. Personal licensee's cannot but we can post tweets, which are not hosted here. Reposting the graphic from weather underground on here is prohibited by the license.

[SFLcane]

Wow...

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166705824183521280

[stormlover2013]

I remember when some peeps said we would know wed where Dorian could go, I said more than likely Friday and that's what its looking like. They are having a hard time grasping the upper level pattern

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166705824183521280

[supercane4867]

06z HWRF. Likely high-end CAT4 if this pans out