ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

You could say it's close to landfall.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174021441131569153

[AnnularCane]

It almost feels like Imelda isn't getting a chance or something.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Remarkable similarity between Dorian/Fernand and Humberto/Imelda. Speaking more broadly...we're in the hunt for tropical season that ends up near or above normal based on where we are and the backloading tendency of our tropical seasons/conditions ahead...

I noticed that too... Dorian/Humberto was influenced by an ULL that retrograded into the Gulf, worked down into the surface, and became Fernand/Imelda.

[CrazyC83]

It's amazing how sneaky the tropics can be sometimes. People going to work/school with only a bunch of thunderstorms and coming home to a tropical storm making landfall.

[SoupBone]

If the GFS verifies, Houston will be threading a thin, thin needle.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sure seems like this very specific stretch of the Gulf coast encounters these "one in a 10,000 years" biblical flooding events far more frequently than...uh, 10,000 years. Not that it'll be Harvey bad, but still.

Probably not Harvey but it def may be a top 10 flooding event for the area.

We would definitely take some of that rain over here to in se la, even if it meant dealing with some flooding. Just went and got our mail and garbage cans and the front yard is brown and crisp and wilting away under the trees, bushes aren’t looking much better either.

[Steve]

It almost feels like Imelda isn't getting a chance or something.

It gets a different chance though to improve presentation post-landfall. Will it? Who knows. But it's something to watch for tomorrow.

[setxweathergal64]

If the GFS verifies, Houston will be threading a thin, thin needle.

https://i.imgur.com/wXresTG.png

How many inches is in the purple?

[SoupBone]

If the GFS verifies, Houston will be threading a thin, thin needle.

https://i.imgur.com/wXresTG.png

How many inches is in the purple?

A hair over 10".

[SoupBone]

The Euro is really the most concerning. Our paid guys are still forecasting between 5-10", with some localized heavier rain and flooding.

[CrazyC83]

If the GFS verifies, Houston will be threading a thin, thin needle.

https://i.imgur.com/wXresTG.png

Fortunately, the area between Houston and Beaumont is sparsely populated.

[lester]

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND...

NOAA Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that
Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas at
100 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas reported
a minimum pressure near 1005 mb (29.68 inches) around the time of
landfall.

SUMMARY OF 130 PM CDT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lasted as a TS over water for all of an hour at most.

[CrazyC83]

Lasted as a TS over water for all of an hour at most.

I'm guessing the final BT will have genesis time at 1200Z, but it probably was a tropical storm only at 1800Z (and a landfall point) unless ship data comes back stronger.

[1900hurricane]

Landfall loop:

[wxman22]

It's now casting time but the latest 12z Euro is very concerning.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It's now casting time but the latest 12z Euro is very concerning.

https://i.ibb.co/XxWKPVp/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019091712-61-490-220.png

Looks like TS Allison in 2001.

[1900hurricane]

It's now casting time but the latest 12z Euro is very concerning.

https://i.ibb.co/XxWKPVp/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019091712-61-490-220.png

That's actually somewhat similar to the rainfall distribution seen on the 12Z HREF. It only goes out 48 hours (since it's comprised of the CAMs), but here is the Ensemble Probability Matched Mean QPF for the 24 hour period beginning 12Z tomorrow. Looks like the south and southeast side of the circulation has the potential to see quite a lot of rain.

[HurricaneEnzo]

This has the potential to be another retired 'I' storm if these estimated rainfall numbers pan out. Hopefully they don't.

[EnnisTx]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/165909_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png National Hurricane center. map

Looks like it comes ashore a then heads on a more Northwest track. Hopefully this happens so we can spread the wealth of rain around a bit more.