ATL: DORIAN - Models

[coreyl]

Yes. No huge shifts but some possible wsw motion possible or just the west turn happening earlier.

Aric, is your sense that the FL Straits are in play? Or you're not thinking the shifts will be that extreme?

As.of right now the chances of it coming south of miami are lower. If that upper low drops farther sw and the ridge is tilted a little more ne sw then possibly.

Still a few variables and things can change

I know we are looking way out but what about further west shifts in the long term Alabama Mississippi where I live, I know we’re just speculating and everything

[chris_fit]

When will the Euro ensembles come out?

Within 15 min I believe - but I know some of the members here can view them in real time on the paid side as they come out... anyone care to enlighten us?

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

Basically, Florida is screwed.

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... orian.html


this morning 00 tracks
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... orian.html

yesterday 12z tracks
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... orian.html

[Steve]

Aric, is your sense that the FL Straits are in play? Or you're not thinking the shifts will be that extreme?

As.of right now the chances of it coming south of miami are lower. If that upper low drops farther sw and the ridge is tilted a little more ne sw then possibly.

Still a few variables and things can change

I know we are looking way out but what about further west shifts in the long term Alabama Mississippi where I live, I know we’re just speculating and everything

What do you think Corey? Seems like it's going to be close. In the big picture, you're only talking about 140 miles or so which is nothing on a global scale not to mention probably inside of a 3 day cone.

[Highteeld]

Strongest member is 939 mb.

[Jr0d]

As.of right now the chances of it coming south of miami are lower. If that upper low drops farther sw and the ridge is tilted a little more ne sw then possibly.

Still a few variables and things can change

Still not feeling in the clear here in Key West. I will wait until it makes that west turn(or WSW) before writing it off or going full blown storm mode.

Usually I don't even look at the ICON model but it has done well and takes the storm way too close for comfort. Also the Euro's shift south is also getting too close for comfort.

There will be much more input data for tomorrow's computer models and that will hopefully give us a better picture and really narrow down the apparent imminent landfall spot.

[KWT]

Once again the 12z ECM shows that the stronger Dorian gets, the more southerly the track ends up with most of the stronger runs over S.Florida...

[Dean4Storms]

Threat to the Gulf went up big time today, maybe to 70% or better if you had to give it a percentage.

[SouthDadeFish]

My thoughts on the 12Z Euro ensembles...

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1166799741138718720

[Kohlecane]

Once again the 12z ECM shows that the stronger Dorian gets, the more southerly the track ends up with most of the stronger runs over S.Florida...

Shouldn't it be opposite, correct me if I am wrong but wouldn't a stronge (major) cane break through some of the ridge?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxkev/status/1166800345021984769

[AutoPenalti]

Once again the 12z ECM shows that the stronger Dorian gets, the more southerly the track ends up with most of the stronger runs over S.Florida...

Shouldn't it be opposite, correct me if I am wrong but wouldn't a stronge (major) cane break through some of the ridge?

No, if anything this influences ridge pumping.

[beachman80]

Aric, is your sense that the FL Straits are in play? Or you're not thinking the shifts will be that extreme?

As.of right now the chances of it coming south of miami are lower. If that upper low drops farther sw and the ridge is tilted a little more ne sw then possibly.

Still a few variables and things can change

I know we are looking way out but what about further west shifts in the long term Alabama Mississippi where I live, I know we’re just speculating and everything

I think Miss. and Alabama are most definitely in play. In fact I think this gets into the Gulf and will set its eyes somewhere along the northern GC, from appalachicola to Houston. They’re all in play.

The scarier scenario is weak steering currents in the Guld and this thing stalling.

[bella_may]

Looks like Katrina https://twitter.com/anthonyfarnell/stat ... 53184?s=21

[GTStorm]

Everyone seems to be coming around to the fact that the ridge is going to be strong. If that's the case, while I don't want to discount the Carolinas and Georgia, it's going to be really hard for that storm to get up there if it's blocked. I think this is looking more likely to be a south Florida and Gulf Coast problem.

Agree. definitely not as concerned here as we were just this morning. In fact it seems pretty apparent that if anything, Dorian has room to go even more South...at least that's what I get from all of the discussion of the ridge. No one seems to be acknowledging any possibility of the high not building in as strong as suggested. So I'm very happy to go with the smart folks on this board, and the consensus of the latest model runs.

[sunny]

Looks like Katrina https://twitter.com/anthonyfarnell/stat ... 53184?s=21

I think more like Andrew

http://50.206.172.193/hurricane/atlanti ... /track.gif

[got ants?]

Still not feeling in the clear here in Key West. I will wait until it makes that west turn(or WSW) before writing it off or going full blown storm mode.

Usually I don't even look at the ICON model but it has done well and takes the storm way too close for comfort. Also the Euro's shift south is also getting too close for comfort.

There will be much more input data for tomorrow's computer models and that will hopefully give us a better picture and really narrow down the apparent imminent landfall spot.

I agree with your thinking, but, where it goes once it turns left, will be a short timeframe to prepare. AND, it appears all models agree on the turn. He's going to turn, but how much, how fast, and the what...

This is why I bought gas today. I would normally write this off as a far chance, but too much alignments in the turn, and then the ?? I can always dump the rec gas into the F250..

[beachman80]

The questions will soon begin on what will conditions and steering currents be like in the Gulf when it gets there. Will a trough dig in? Will they be weak and could it stall? Will hP keep pushing it west or is a recurve possible puting Fla west coast in danger? Lots of questions soon to be coming up.