ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jagno]

Driving to and from work an hour away will be interesting to say the least. I live in SW Louisiana and work in SE Texas.

[gatorcane]

With models showing pretty quick intensification as it nears the coast, certainly a bit concerning. Hopefully dry air will keep it in check.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures are about the same south of Mobile bay and at the Tampa buoy.
Winds still out of the WNW at the Tampa buoy couple hours ago. Wouldn't be a bad situation if we had two competing centers to keep the intensity down except for flooding. There won't be RI until one center becomes dominant.

[NDG]

I can start seeing a broad surface circulation now getting going, appears to be centered near the FL Big Bend area.

[GCANE]

Nice rotating tower on this one.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a low level circ sitting right oner chattahoochee just north of Tallahassee. That wont last though as night falls and convection picks bsck up offshore. The land heat as lowered the pressure slightly more than over the gulf. But that will switch.

[GCANE]

Rapid Scan up on Slider.
Sector: Meso Scale 2

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 000&y=1000

[NDG]

At a closer look, the surface circulation is actually centered just NW of Tallahassee.

[tarheelprogrammer]

At a closer look, the surface circulation is actually centered just NW of Tallahassee.

https://i.imgur.com/u0XCM2p.gif

Yep, much easier to see now. So, GFS was not too far off with initialization.

[Aric Dunn]

At a closer look, the surface circulation is actually centered just NW of Tallahassee.

https://i.imgur.com/u0XCM2p.gif

Yep, much easier to tell now. So, GFS was not too far off with initialization.

no was not supposed to be offshore intill this evening. And that circ wont last once the sun goes down. As i mentioned in my post above...

And there is clearly low level turning offshore as well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I was wondering if the high pressure that sits over most of Texas starts heading to the west will this not tug the disturbance back west again? Or is this something that will even happen?

The eastward trend on the models are picking up a stronger trough in the upper plains that will erode the eastern edge of the ridge. If the ridge were to move west, that would open up an even larger escape route for the system to the north

This is going to be a huge player when you're talking about the ultimate landfall.

Agree. I've been looking at the ridge in the four corners region very closely. Models are weakening it some over the last few runs. The weaker it is, the trough will pull the TC north quicker.

[HurricaneBelle]

Interestingly, a circulation seems to be developing over Pinellas County just north of Clearwater, note the storms in Clearwater and points south moving east, the cell over Tampa moving north, and the rain in North Pinellas and Pasco moving west.

[storminabox]

I can start seeing a broad surface circulation now getting going, appears to be centered near the FL Big Bend area.

https://i.imgur.com/7AiQSXe.gif

Convection really starting to get going in the Gulf

[floridasun78]

i notice we here south east coast been dryer and expect look all moist in gulf touch sw coast line look like low north fl pulling all storms into gulf as low start forming

[Nederlander]

Interestingly, a circulation seems to be developing over Pinellas County just north of Clearwater, note the storms in Clearwater and points south moving east, the cell over Tampa moving north, and the rain in North Pinellas and Pasco moving west.

http://i63.tinypic.com/1z15oj9.gif

Yeah I have had my eye on this feature via radar this morning. It looked as though this might take over as the dominant center, but convection has now increased S of Tallahassee. We’ll see what happens this evening into the overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

Interestingly, a circulation seems to be developing over Pinellas County just north of Clearwater, note the storms in Clearwater and points south moving east, the cell over Tampa moving north, and the rain in North Pinellas and Pasco moving west.

http://i63.tinypic.com/1z15oj9.gif

Yeah I have had my eye on this feature via radar this morning. It looked as though this might take over as the dominant center, but convection has now increased S of Tallahassee. We’ll see what happens this evening into the overnight.

It is not out of the realm of possibility. Whereever deep convection maintains. It is a battle of the meso features right now lol

[xironman]

At a closer look, the surface circulation is actually centered just NW of Tallahassee.

I am seeing at least a mid-level circ SW of there over the gulf

[NDG]

At a closer look, the surface circulation is actually centered just NW of Tallahassee.

I am seeing at least a mid-level circ SW of there over the gulf

Yes, the ML circulation is to the SW of it, LL vorticity is to the south of it.

[xironman]

At a closer look, the surface circulation is actually centered just NW of Tallahassee.

I am seeing at least a mid-level circ SW of there over the gulf

Yes, the ML circulation is to the SW of it, LL vorticity is to the south of it.

The blowing up of the towers on the coast is pretty impressive.

[cycloneye]

70%/80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system
could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart