ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Hammy]

Massive outflow boundary shooting north out of the western side a good sign this is losing convergence and organization.

[drezee]

What we have is an elongated trough with a mid-level circulation. Nothing is consolidating anytime soon...

[CyclonicFury]

96L is an elongated mess. I doubt it ever consolidates into anything much.

[USVIKimmie]

Been watching like a hawk, also learning new stuff, but the NHC 2pm... and this is the 3rd time I've seen two forecasters sign their reports. Ideas about that?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next
day or two as the disturbance moves west-northwestward toward the
northern Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are then expected to
become unfavorable for further development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Zelinsky

[Hammy]

Been watching like a hawk, also learning new stuff, but the NHC 2pm... and this is the 3rd time I've seen two forecasters sign their reports. Ideas about that?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next
day or two as the disturbance moves west-northwestward toward the
northern Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are then expected to
become unfavorable for further development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Zelinsky

I was thinking training or apprenticeship possibly, taking the opportunity since it's pretty quiet otherwise.

[Nimbus]

You can start to see some low level circulation this afternoon so I'm glad the forecast future wind pattern will be hostile. Could reach depression status if there is a low level circulation.

[jconsor]

Latest multi-sat analysis.
I hear the duck quaking.
Need a good SCAT and it'll be our next TD.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/285/9ih0zv.gif

Those multi-sat wind analyses have a bias of making developing tropical waves/weak TCs too symmetrical - be wary of using them.

[ConvergenceZone]

the NHC percentages tell you all you need to know.... RIP! On to the next.......

[rickybobby]

the NHC percentages tell you all you need to know.... RIP! On to the next.......

Yup time for bones

[chaser1]

I'm seeing a far more distinct COC with some deep convection starting to pop just NW of center. Probably not fully to the surface yet but it's present location situates itself fairly well for short term upper level divergent outflow.

Given my observations of the parameters which NHC appears to be using this year for T.D. & T.S. classifications and upgrades (rather then a more historical and conservative assessment of benchmark characteristics that more
consistantly were used to define an actual T.D. or T.S. in the past), then I'd be surprised if NHC did not issue a Special Tropical Disturbance statement later this afternoon that a T.D. may be forming. Following that, any half decent Ascat and/or couple buoy or ship reports and I'd fully expect NHC to tag this a T.D or even a min. T.S. The fact that it may well be short lived & fairly transient due to dry air and an increase in upper level shear within 24-36 hours does not seem as relevant as it used to. Quick!! Get a plane out there while it's still turning. That or someone patch a call through to the Redneck Navy - now! I'm sure someone's got an old barometer and a hand-held anemometer capable of measuring a 5 knot west wind?!

[GCANE]

Cumulus showing some very tight spin just north of 12.5N 52W

[GCANE]

Hmm, gravity waves ontop of the cumulus.
Keeping a real close eye on this.

[Aric Dunn]

North side curvature is becoming less defined. Favoring the central area under that very distinct low to mid level circ. If convection fired with that it could quickly consolidate at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

That is a very vigorous low level circ. It has a central calm area you can track on IR. Some convection is all it will take.

[wxman57]

Heading into very strong wind shear. Development chances somewhere between slim and none.

[chaser1]

I see a COC in the ballpark of 13.0N & 52.5. That's pretty much in-line with Best Track from earlier in the day. That would seem like an over-all recent term motion of about 270/275. I think it was in the models thread where I noticed a couple of you guys discussing some subtle distinctions between how the EURO and the GFS were each depicting the 500mb ridging a bit differently; One suggesting a more cellular ridging flow that suggested a turn more to the WNW or NW, while the other model suggesting a more elongated and perhaps westward building mid-level ridge. The latter suggesting the possibility of a more westward push well into the E. Caribbean.

Well, pick your poison but the appearance of a more westward track might have been a solution that could lead to nearer term development before upper level shear undresses her in roughly 72 hours. Whereas a near-term NW'ward motion would seem to imply a much quicker dose of tropical SALmanilla followed by a quick decapitation by KingTUTT. Ironically it's that second more dramatic short-term demise that I would have thought more likely. Then perhaps a few days later following a several mb surface pressure drop, the lagging surface reflection (a feable looking stretched out mess) just east of the Bahamas reamerges as another Gale Center which I'd have bet my underwear that NHC would surely tag it with a name for 12 hours or so.

Maybe west is better. Call me old-fashioned but I like my tropical cyclones to include spiral rain bands and lasting at least a couple days. Hopefully, any development that might occur.... will not bring anything more then T.S. force winds to the Antilles.

[floridasun78]

I see a COC in the ballpark of 13.0N & 52.5. That's pretty much in-line with Best Track from earlier in the day. That would seem like an over-all recent term motion of about 270/275. I think it was in the models thread where I noticed a couple of you guys discussing some subtle distinctions between how the EURO and the GFS were each depicting the 500mb ridging a bit differently; One suggesting a more cellular ridging flow that suggested a turn more to the WNW or NW, while the other model suggesting a more elongated and perhaps westward building mid-level ridge. The latter suggesting the possibility of a more westward push well into the E. Caribbean.

Well, pick your poison but the appearance of a more westward track might have been a solution that could lead to nearer term development before upper level shear undresses her in roughly 72 hours. Whereas a near-term NW'ward motion would seem to imply a much quicker dose of tropical SALmanilla followed by a quick decapitation by KingTUTT. Ironically it's that second more dramatic short-term demise that I would have thought more likely. Then perhaps a few days later following a several mb surface pressure drop, the lagging surface reflection (a feable looking stretched out mess) just east of the Bahamas reamerges as another Gale Center which I'd have bet my underwear that NHC would surely tag it with a name for 12 hours or so.

Maybe west is better. Call me old-fashioned but I like my tropical cyclones to include spiral rain bands and lasting at least a couple days. Hopefully, any development that might occur.... will not bring anything more then T.S. force winds to the Antilles.

i think 96l done been trying but shear want it dead and SAL now we see when we have 97l i think be few week when SAL dead down and tull move alway and shear

[chaser1]

Heading into very strong wind shear. Development chances somewhere between slim and none.

No doubt, there's shear to the north of her.... shear to the south of her.... "here I am, stuck in the middle with you" (isn't that a Beatles song?? Anyway, I digress... )

So, your not thinking the present COC might narrowly be under any east/west upper COL extending eastward from the Caribbean? Based on today's earlier shear analysis it looked to me like it might just thread that needle. Then again, perhaps I was overestimating the relative area of lighter UL winds?

[floridasun78]

Heading into very strong wind shear. Development chances somewhere between slim and none.

No doubt, there's shear to the north of her.... shear to the south of her.... "here I am, stuck in the middle with you" (isn't that a Beatles song?? Anyway, I digress... )

So, your not thinking the present COC might narrowly be under any east/west upper COL extending eastward from the Caribbean? Based on today's earlier shear analysis it looked to me like it might just thread that needle. Then again, perhaps I was overestimating the relative area of lighter UL winds?

at 8pm i see % drop too 10 and 5% next five days 96l done

[chaser1]

Heading into very strong wind shear. Development chances somewhere between slim and none.

No doubt, there's shear to the north of her.... shear to the south of her.... "here I am, stuck in the middle with you" (isn't that a Beatles song?? Anyway, I digress... )

So, your not thinking the present COC might narrowly be under any east/west upper COL extending eastward from the Caribbean? Based on today's earlier shear analysis it looked to me like it might just thread that needle. Then again, perhaps I was overestimating the relative area of lighter UL winds?

at 8pm i see % drop too 10 and 5% next five days 96l done

You may well be right That would certainly keep in character with this season so far. It certainly has good spin but in spite of the seemingly moist envelope it's riding west with, convection just continues to get choked off - not just "over center" but within the broader low latitude envelope around it. SST's seem to be a net zero factor. Not anomalously warm or cool, but adequate and around 28C. Funny, this was supposedly the year of the "wet Saheal". Perhaps, but something's seemingly awry with the air over much of the Atlantic. I'm not so sure that's something that'll just get fixed simply because Climo says so