ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

I don't know about eye, but short term trends do appear to indicate the system may be becoming better stacked. Looks like a good curved band developing.

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to look pretty good. You can see some rapid east-to-west low-level cloud motions on the north side of the vortex, suggesting the center is south of 15 N. There are some signs of a mid-level eye-like feature, but I'm not convinced yet that is an actual eye.

[LarryWx]

Looking again at satellite loops, I think he’s degraded somewhat the last couple of hours though I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that as satellite pics can be deceiving. So, if he has degraded some, I wonder if that’s the reason he may be ~20 miles S of the NHC/model consensus. Does the steering for a weaker system in that area have less of a north component?

Let’s just say that this was not one of my better posts.

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to look pretty good. You can see some rapid east-to-west low-level cloud motions on the north side of the vortex, suggesting the center is south of 15 N. There are some signs of a mid-level eye-like feature, but I'm not convinced yet that is an actual eye.

https://imgur.com/DYUilvz

yeah absolutely not an eye up through the layers yet. but its coming soon to a theater near you

[Aric Dunn]

Looking again at satellite loops, I think he’s degraded somewhat the last couple of hours though I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that as satellite pics can be deceiving. So, if he has degraded some, I wonder if that’s the reason he may be ~20 miles S of the NHC/model consensus. Does the steering for a weaker system in that area have less of a north component?

Let’s just say that this was not one of my better posts.

you got caught by the classic pulse down between a TS and Hurricane.. good ole conservation of energy

[1900hurricane]

Slightly off-topic, but how do you embed the .gifv? That's a pretty cool function.

[SouthDadeFish]

Slightly off-topic, but how do you embed the .gifv? That's a pretty cool function.

I used the imgur button when posting and direct linked to the image url.

[1900hurricane]

Slightly off-topic, but how do you embed the .gifv? That's a pretty cool function.

I used the imgur button when posting and direct linked to the image url.

Ha, didn't even realize that was there, thanks!

[StruThiO]

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/6uBo2RV.jpg

enter the eyewall convection that will wrap around ... and out pops the eye in a few hours..

[StruThiO]

[Florida1118]

Yeah Jerry is definitely not as impressive as many say he is. He has the look of a struggling TC.

May want to look again...I don't see a struggling TC.

[Buck]

Fun fact... Jerry has only been a hurricane once, in 1989—the first time the name was used. Every other instance has been a Tropical Storm. Maybe he will finally get a chance to show off a little.

[sma10]

Named after Jerry Jarrell, former NHC Forecaster and Director (for those who care about such nonsense)

[drezee]

This Buoy will be interesting. Winds still have an eastern component. He may pass right over it...

14.824 N 51.017 W

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41NT0

Of course, it goes offline...

[HurricaneBelle]

Fun fact... Jerry has only been a hurricane once, in 1989—the first time the name was used. Every other instance has been a Tropical Storm. Maybe he will finally get a chance to show off a little.

Jerry hit Texas in mid-October that year, I believe the latest in the year Texas has seen a hurricane.

[Michele B]

Starting to look pretty good. You can see some rapid east-to-west low-level cloud motions on the north side of the vortex, suggesting the center is south of 15 N. There are some signs of a mid-level eye-like feature, but I'm not convinced yet that is an actual eye.

https://imgur.com/DYUilvz

Yeah, hard for me to see CoC. Seems to have "jumped" south.

Edit to add: I posted this waaay before that EYE popped out!

[drezee]

This Buoy will be interesting. Winds still have an eastern component. He may pass right over it...

14.824 N 51.017 W

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41NT0

Of course, it goes offline...

It came back! Pressure down to 1007 8mb...direction of wind says Jerry will go South of this buoy...interesting

[cainjamin]

Big convective burst forming over the center. This might be just what Jerry needed to form an inner core.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1174388317938315265