ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

The St. Marks area east to Steinhatchee will likely get a significant surge. I went down to St. Marks after Michael and the water marks were at the top of the palm trees. Even a weaker storm like this will likely inundate a large section of the coast in the Big Bend.

That's the most surge prone region of the entire Atlantic basin (per former TWC hurricane expert Steve Lyons). Fortunately much of the big bend is nature preserves with minimal population. Even southwesterlies ahead of cold fronts in the winter pile up the water in the NE corner of the Gulf.

[chaser1]

Actually untrue. I've lived along Clearwater Beach for 40 plus years. Anything coming this direction will have pretty good affects on us especially if closer to Cedar Key. On the coast in Pinellas we often lose power from storms passing by on this coast. These type storms are often spread out.

I'm not sure what you think is untrue. NHC projected landfall is near Panama City. If that verifies, I do believe that wind field impact could extend further to the east then presently forecast. However, I highly doubt that Clearwater would experience considerable periods of squalls with wind gusts exceeding 40 mph with a landfall that occurs west of Apalachicola. Now, if landfall were to occur significantly further east and near Cedar Key.... then yes, that would be a different story altogether.

.....it could easily go east of Appalachacola. ......the storm will likely be very broad....Affects would be well South and East. ....storm surge and flooding are very real concerns.

Yes, all true. Hopefully (for those of us in South/Central Florida), the forecast track will not deviate too much and the conditions that we experience will be limited to periods of rain and some gusty winds. Stay vigil though, storm surge is certainly no stranger to Florida Gulf Coastal regions. Personally, I'm looking forward to the sky covered and rain dampened cooler temps!

[wxman57]

I would put the chances of a hurricane at 5%

Sounds about right, maybe a little lower. Too much against it. Dewpoints in the 50s flowing down the western Gulf into it now. This storm may be more subtropical than tropical.

ASCAT from 1547Z, below, indicates a trof axis - actually, a front axis across the SW Gulf. The 30kt winds to the west of the trof are cool air accelerating southward along the coast of Mexico behind the cold front. More like a frontal wave at present.

[Aric Dunn]

Just what I was afraid of.
GFS run-to-run showing progressively less negative tilt with the UL trough.
Forecast to interact around 12Z tomorrow.
Not much time for error here.
Hopefully, this doesn't catch a lot of people by surprise.

Yeah large persistent areas of deep convection will do that..

[GCANE]

Just what I was afraid of.
GFS run-to-run showing progressively less negative tilt with the UL trough.
Forecast to interact around 12Z tomorrow.
Not much time for error here.
Hopefully, this doesn't catch a lot of people by surprise.

Yeah large persistent areas of deep convection will do that..

Big set up for some massive dryline convection tomorrow.
Models never do good with drylines over water.
That is why everyone wonders why convection in waves fire off with dry air all around.
When moist air over rides dry air, it creates massive up drafts / parcel buoyancy.

[GCANE]

Clouds to the NW of the CoC are taking a sudden turn in.
Looks like its strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

Clouds to the NW of the CoC are taking a sudden turn in.
Looks like its strengthening.

Yeah circ is on southern side of that convection. Low level cloud deck around it just suddenly thickened. Should see burst of convection over center shortly.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1184892427187957760

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1184892427187957760

Could (further) reduce the already marginal likelihood of significant strengthening, but also exacerbate the coastal surge problems.

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

[Raebie]

We sure could use the rain here in the Carolinas.

[TallyTracker]

We sure could use the rain here in the Carolinas.

Ya’ll should get a nice dousing after it moves onshore.

[cycloneye]

Clouds to the NW of the CoC are taking a sudden turn in.
Looks like its strengthening.

Yeah circ is on southern side of that convection. Low level cloud deck around it just suddenly thickened. Should see burst of convection over center shortly.

And good timing as plane is on route.

[Frank P]

latest vis sat loops sure has a good eastern motion to it....overall clouds appear to be moving NE to ENE from what I can observe... IMO

[psyclone]

So will this system eventually be designated tropical or subtropical? It sure looks like the latter. Looks like a spread the wealth system with something for everyone but hopefully not too much for anyone. A larger (even low end) windfield can really stack the water, especially in the corners of the bathtub (gulf) in this case the upper right corner.. Nature coast/big bend/over to st George island...you know the drill...

[northjaxpro]

latest vis sat loops sure has a good eastern motion to it....overall clouds appear to be moving NE to ENE from what I can observe... IMO

The past 2-3 hours definitely has shown a more easterly component in motion. We will get confirmation one way or the other shortly from Recon as they are flying currently to the system.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro has bullseye of rain off South Alabama and NW Florida

[Nimbus]

Low levels are really starting to wrap around that southern center.
Recon will probably find a healthy pressure gradient.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Mark Sudduth video.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1184911148535222272