ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Stangfriik]

Ridge builds a little further south and is a tad stronger this run through 78h. I expect this run will take Dorian closer to Daytona.

Pardon my ignorance but I thought a stronger ridge meant it would push it further west not north?

[jlauderdal]

Still too far north. Typical poleward bias from the GFS

yep, the gfs is still too far north but has a better idea than previous runs...1029 high still on the scene at 102 hours barely moving

[StormingB81]

Still too far north. Typical poleward bias from the GFS

Gfs too far north euro probably to far south pick somewhere in between

[fci]

Ridge builds a little further south and is a tad stronger this run through 78h. I expect this run will take Dorian closer to Daytona.

That would be a surprise climatologically.
I don’t ever remember a Hurricane striking Daytona from the East.

[PTPatrick]

Coming from the north gulf coast I’m generally very wary of any hurricane cutting across south FL on a west or sw trajectory....Andrew, Betsy, Katrina...not what you wanna see. Obviously lots of time to watch the windshield wiper but this looks like it’s gonna be a long Labor Day weekend and not in a good way.

[beachman80]

GFS still sticking with a Daytona landfall. Thought it would come more south like the rest of them, but it's sticking with its guns.

[jlauderdal]

Ridge builds a little further south and is a tad stronger this run through 78h. I expect this run will take Dorian closer to Daytona.

Pardon my ignorance but I thought a stronger ridge meant it would push it further west not north?

thats the problem we are having with the gfs, the ridging is there yet the gfs wants to move it right into the ridge instead of what the euro does which is move it w-wsw on the edge...the euro makes more sense but the gfs is making good progress today getting to reality

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridge builds a little further south and is a tad stronger this run through 78h. I expect this run will take Dorian closer to Daytona.

Pardon my ignorance but I thought a stronger ridge meant it would push it further west not north?

You're correct. I saw the 12z GFS take Dorian into the Flagler Beach area. I think the landfall this run will be 20-30 miles south in Daytona.

[jfk08c]

Still too far north. Typical poleward bias from the GFS

Gfs too far north euro probably to far south pick somewhere in between

Lakeland, FL here. Been eyeing a Canaveral/Cocoa Beach landfall for a hot minute. Have a feeling the models are going to meet in the middle somewhere along the line. We will see

[bella_may]

Still a tad south from the previous run

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the 18z GFS comes ashore a little further south then the 12z

[jfk08c]

And there goes TropicalTidbits... RIP

[beachman80]

18z ICON pretty much stalls Dorian just off of Miami as a cat. 3 or 4.

[gatorcane]

The GFS op and legacy GFS continue to be north of the GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean. For our sake here in South Florida I hope they are right but not sure they are. Stronger means more west this time. It may end up much stronger than what the GFS shows.

[jlauderdal]

jax landfall in 5 days...splitting the difference between the euro and gfs for a track is giving too much weight to the gfs, still have to respect the gfs but not 50/50..more like 70/30

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has winds near 85-90kts upon landfall.

[Bocadude85]

The GFS op and legacy GFS continues to be north of the GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean. For our sake here in South Florida I hope it is right but not sure it is. Stronger means more west this time. It may end up much stronger than what the GFS shows.

Pretty rare for a major hurricane landfall from the east north of Martin County, I would think the GFS will continue to shift south, but perhaps we will see Dorian bunk climatology and hit Central Florida from the east.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Legacy GFS. Landfall near Vero at 102

[beachman80]

jax landfall in 5 days...splitting the difference between the euro and gfs for a track is giving too much weight to the gfs, still have to respect the gfs but not 50/50..more like 70/30

GFS track is about 75-100 miles south of Jax. More like Daytona Beach.

[gatorcane]

The GFS op and legacy GFS continues to be north of the GFS ensemble mean and Euro ensemble mean. For our sake here in South Florida I hope it is right but not sure it is. Stronger means more west this time. It may end up much stronger than what the GFS shows.

Pretty rare for a major hurricane landfall from the east north of Martin County, I would think the GFS will continue to shift south, but perhaps we will see Dorian bunk climatology and hit Central Florida from the east.

Yeah it is rare when was the last time that happened? When I look at the Euro track, that looks more like some tracks we have seen before for landfalling majors that hit Florida.