ATL: DORIAN - Models

[supercane4867]

HWRF landfall on the cape.

[Cpv17]

Port St. Lucie...Treasure Coast...As in the general vicinity that the HWRF wants to destroy.

I’d be extremely concerned if I were you. Just being honest.

Watching closely...I'm a native Floridian and have seen this movie and danced to this song before. Just take a look at my signature line.

SFT

Yeah I got hit by Harvey a couple years ago.. absolutely nuts. 25” of rain and tropical storm force winds here for 3 days.

[supercane4867]

[jlauderdal]

Hwrf always provides the best eye candy, it has to be considered as a viable solution

[CrazyC83]

HWRF hits just north of Cape Canaveral as a cat 4. I know that model has a high bias though...

[northjaxpro]

So NAVGEM joins the GFS on the more North reasoning with the forecast track. That is a bit interesting

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=111

18z (verified) HWRF has Landfall 5am Monday EDT @ 928mb Cocoa Beach/Merritt Island. Like everyone says, it's hard to get a hit there due to the curvature of the coastline.

[jlauderdal]

This HWRF run is what I've been afraid of.. Dorian will earn retirement for sure. As an Andrew and Katrina survivor and Fort Lauderdale resident, I am fully on the look out for a SW dive at some point. Not forecasting it, but I just have a hunch. See UKMET and EURO from today. I am reminded of the often forgotten 1947 Major Hurricane that struck here. It was a Cat 5 over the Bahamas, but weakened to a Cat 4 just before landfall.

Hwrf nailed the katrina sw dive as it approached florida

[WeatherEmperor]

Aric, please continue to post approximate latitude longitude for the 18z Euro as it comes


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[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/xCAEFc5.png

I can’t see this going that far north. SFL is much more likely and even the Keys are more likely than CFL or NFL. Storms just don’t ever hit that part of Florida from the east like that. It’s not completely unlikely, but I doubt that’ll happen.

[tolakram]

A friendly but grumpy reminder. If someone says something really dumb report it and move on, otherwise instead of doing what I want to do I'm cleaning up the mess. Hopefully I didn't delete an innocent post but there were a number removed and the situation has been dealt with. Please stick to model discussion only in here, thanks.

[Nimbus]

HWRF hits just north of Cape Canaveral as a cat 4. I know that model has a high bias though...

922 MB on the 18Z.

[Bocadude85]

0z models will be interesting, one would think either the Euro makes a move north closer to the GFS or the GFS starts moving southward toward the Euro.

[norva13x]

https://i.imgur.com/xCAEFc5.png

I can’t see this going that far north. SFL is much more likely and even the Keys are more likely than CFL or NFL. Storms just don’t ever hit that part of Florida from the east like that. It’s not completely unlikely, but I doubt that’ll happen.

How can CFL be more unlikely than the Keys when it is smack in the middle of the cone and some of the Keys aren't even in it? Just because it is rare doesn't mean anything to current condition. The cone could shift and I am not saying one will definitely happen but that is a bold statement to make.

[STRiZZY]

HWRF can be nuts, but we all saw what happened with Michael last year. We knew the bar was high, we just didn't know it would be *that* high.

True but if you predict a "happening" alllll the time eventually you're going to be right lol.

The return time for a Cat 5 USA landfall makes having 2 in less than a year incredibly unlikely for sure. I think 125mph is a decent guess right now.

Yeah that's reasonable for sure

[Frank2]

Cpw17, check out Floyd's 1999 track - the models did favor it turning away from South Florida and making landfall north of Cape Canaveral...

[blp]

This HWRF run is what I've been afraid of.. Dorian will earn retirement for sure. As an Andrew and Katrina survivor and Fort Lauderdale resident, I am fully on the look out for a SW dive at some point. Not forecasting it, but I just have a hunch. See UKMET and EURO from today. I am reminded of the often forgotten 1947 Major Hurricane that struck here. It was a Cat 5 over the Bahamas, but weakened to a Cat 4 just before landfall.

Hwrf nailed the katrina sw dive as it approached florida

I believe that was the now retired GFDL. The GFDL was a great model in it's day. Also did a good job with IKE on the SW dive over Cuba. It was very good in these scenarios reminds me of the Ukmet.

[Steve]

HWRF won't be right with its track at 18z more than likely, but you don't want to be in Titusville, Mims or any of those towns along the ICW in Brevard County or coastal Volusia. 6 hours after landfall, that's where the action still is with an onshore rotation and most likely absolute destruction.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=117

[tolakram]

GFS trend. Might be wrong, but it's not as inconsistent as it seems.

[Nimbus]

So NAVGEM joins the GFS on the more North reasoning with the forecast track. That is a bit interesting

Huge jump north from mid state to Jacksonville.
Dorian is gaining a lot of latitude early, you can see high cirrus expanding north in the water vapor imagery. I wouldn't be surprised if Dorian continues on a NW heading almost till Andrews latitude before the ridge gets a chance to build back in. Track should be fairly predictable by then.