ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[NDG]

Definitely getting better organized this morning, but circulation still remains broad and elongated, the coast's shape will help it to tighten up over the next couple of days.

[Aric Dunn]

radar is looking low to mid levels. but clearly showing increased circulation.

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... orologicos

[Aric Dunn]

radar zoomed

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/tools/GUI/Vi ... do=0&id=37

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't be surprised if this spins up into a modest tropical storm. Looks like it's going to be hanging out for a few days nosing around the edge of a ridge in the GOMEX.

[Dean4Storms]

More and more organization taking place, has a real shot at becoming a TS IMO. The timing of that ULL coming eastward from the SW CONUS is going to be key on how much it gets inland or stays offshore for TX down the road. But lots of rain is almost a certainty, at least for Southern TX at this point.

[tropicwatch]

More and more organization taking place, has a real shot at becoming a TS IMO. The timing of that ULL coming eastward from the SW CONUS is going to be key on how much it gets inland or stays offshore for TX down the road. But lots of rain is almost a certainty, at least for Southern TX at this point.

The high over the southeast will also be a factor.

[psyclone]

Looks pretty good. BOC gonna BOC. IIRC 2005 featured a bunch of short lived storms in that region...for such a small area it can be pretty prolific.

[cycloneye]

Great discussion from Levi Cowan in this video:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 0387103750

[AnnularCane]

Didn't the 2007 season start off with Barry too? I might be feeling a bit of deja vu here (even though that was on the other side of the Gulf).

[Abdullah]

See anything?

[MGC]

91L looks to be on the move....thus I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a tropical system. But never under estimate the BOC. I'm thinking a 25% chance of development before reaching the beach.....MGC

[BYG Jacob]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6zwPOwDshU
Levi with a video, we're back gang. Welcome to 2019

[cycloneye]

60% /60%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite data indicate that circulation of a low pressure
system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has become a little
better defined today. However, the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is expected to move
slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could
become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Aric Dunn]

I am not surprised with that outlook. Looks to be quickly organizing

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Weathernerds/status/1134875357952303105




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1134877014006075392

[Aric Dunn]

yeah I was going to say the wind barbs dont make sense to what is actually happening the surface. disregard that ascat pass. too much ambiguity.

still well on its way.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 19.7°N 94.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[BYG Jacob]

Water more than warm enough to support a hurricane

[TheStormExpert]

Didn't the 2007 season start off with Barry too? I might be feeling a bit of deja vu here (even though that was on the other side of the Gulf).

2013 also had Barry in the BoC in June.

[TheStormExpert]

Water more than warm enough to support a hurricane
https://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/SST.GIF

Dropping to “H” word I see! Waters are ALWAYS warm enough to support a hurricane throughout hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, it’s the other factors that determine whether or not one can form.