ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alienstorm]

 https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1164912621327462400

[zhukm29]

This is definitely ramping up quickly. With that ASCAT pass, I wouldn't be surprised if gets classified sooner than expected. Dry air would mean less the faster this develops, and shear is low. This could even steal the name Dorian before 98L.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1164912621327462400

Looks somewhat elongated to me and still embedded within the ITCZ.

[LarryWx]

This one is rather unique in it being projected to move at no more than about 3 degrees west in longitude per day in its WNW averaged track. For the current position (central MDR) in late August, that is unusually slow. I’d say that an average late August to early Sep WNW TC track in that area is probably close to double that or about 5-6 degrees west per day while moving WNW. Look back at historical storm tracks to verify. I’d say that a slow WNW central MDR movement like this is closer to the average much later in the season, say, in early Oct. when things tend to slow down on average in that area. If I get time, I’ll look at old maps to see if I can find slower late August movers in this area and see what they ultimately did.
Any thoughts about this?

[NotSparta]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1164910376619827201

It's a 99L, it won't form until September

[Siker]

This one is rather unique in it being projected to move at no more than about 3 degrees west in longitude per day in its WNW averaged track. For the current position (central MDR) in late August, that is unusually slow. I’d say that an average late August to early Sep WNW TC track in that area is probably close to double that or about 5-6 degrees west per day while moving WNW. Look back at historical storm tracks to verify. I’d say that a slow WNW central MDR movement like this is closer to the average much later in the season, say, in early Oct. when things tend to slow down on average in that area. If I get time, I’ll look at old maps to see if I can find slower late August movers in this area and see what they ultimately did.
Any thoughts about this?

The Bermuda high is forecast to break down as a result of 98L / a passing trough in SE Canada as well as an ULL forming well to the north of 99L. The net steering flow remains weakly westward since no big trough is swinging down into the western Atlantic anytime soon. So I guess that would match up with later fall generally when you have disruption of the Bermuda / Azores High.

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1164910376619827201

It's a 99L, it won't form until September

Wasn’t pre-Hermime (2016) the dreaded 99L that lasted forever?

[AnnularCane]

Gert was another 99L.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1164916990856708097

[NotSparta]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1164910376619827201

It's a 99L, it won't form until September

Wasn’t pre-Hermime (2016) the dreaded 99L that lasted forever?

Yes, then was Gert in 2017

[PTrackerLA]

Wow the satellite appearance of this one has caught me by surprise this morning. The basin is definitely coming alive before our eyes.

[dexterlabio]

I feel a little iffy about this. At least it appears that this already got many people's attention.

[northjaxpro]

Based on the ASCAT, I am of the belief that this is already a closed Low Level Cyclone. This is a TD in my educated analysis now.

[gatorcane]

20% is way too low that is for sure

[TheStormExpert]

This is very likely thanks to the kelvin wave that just passed the Atlantic, will likely struggle at some point in the future especially as it detaches from the ITCZ.

[Kazmit]

Who has a guess of which invest will become Dorian first?

[psyclone]

Calendar + this disturbance + 98L likely = the end of season cancel season and the real meat and potatoes of whatever 2019 is going to throw at us. This one looks decent right now but I certainly wouldn't blame the NHC for being a bit reticent to pull the trigger owing to the location and sometimes transient nature of formative disturbances. Nevertheless...this is likely a go at some point and if it ends up near or north of the greater Antilles it will be in that subtropical hot zone many of us have been expecting to ultimately be productive this season. Things are getting a lot less boring..

[northjaxpro]

Who has a guess of which invest will become Dorian first?

This is actually going to be a close one to gauge. 99L imo is already a TD and is well on its to becoming a TS. May be one this weekend.

98L will probably become a TD in the next 24 hours.

This will be a close one. I will hedge a guess 99L will become Dorian quicker than 98L. Its more organized and developed than 98L as well currently. Make this a separate thread of its own.

[tropicwatch]

It is definitely getting that look.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like it is already a TS to me.