WPAC: FAXAI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

It's not going to happen with the Ts so low, but I'd actually seriously consider classifying right now.

[Hayabusa]

GFS back to being weak but it's still 'there' on the 12z ukmet... here's a plot of the latter I made just because.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 312000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/312000ZAUG2019-010600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851Z AUG 19//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311921Z AUG 19//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 175.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY
486 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311723Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL, WITH GFS AND UKMO SHOW 90W BECOMING A COMPACT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AROUND TAU 48-72, WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN IT AS A
WAVE WITH A SMALL REGION OF ENHANCED WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[1900hurricane]

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311723Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)

Sounds like a tropical depression to me. I'd set the intensity at 25 kt based on ASCAT MetOp-B data.

[1900hurricane]

[Hayabusa]

Sept01/00Z UKMET

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1168032995397099520

[Hayabusa]

TCFA finally

WTPN23 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851ZAUG19//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311921ZAUG19//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N 172.0E TO 17.5N 165.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
010600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N
171.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF COVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
172.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010710Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE
PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A 312240Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC AND SMALL POCKETS OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE LLCC. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DEVLOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY, REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020900Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/L4m5UkA.gif

https://media.giphy.com/media/MwOuiiTfWfWgM/giphy.gif

LOL. Maybe they're just waiting for it to fizzle out as they don't want more invest areas to fool them again after many had shown signs of strengthening at first, only to burst into nothingness later on.

[Hayabusa]

Tried to mimic tidbits' wpac area coverage, for full zoom open it in new tab

[Hayabusa]

14W FOURTEEN 190901 1800 15.2N 169.9E WPAC 25 1005

[1900hurricane]

Finally, yay! JTWC is behind in intensity now though. Have to start somewhere I suppose.

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

TXPQ21 KNES 012113
TCSWNP

A. 14W (NONAME)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 14.8N

D. 169.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 4.5/10 BANDING FOR A DT=2.5. MET=2.0. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[1900hurricane]

JTWC rather bearish.

Code: Select all

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010851ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 169.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 169.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 15.7N 167.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 16.4N 165.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 17.2N 163.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 18.2N 160.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 20.3N 156.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 22.6N 151.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 24.7N 146.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 169.4E.
01SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN23 PGTW 010900).//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 1//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 011750Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED
A VERY SMALL CORE CIRCULATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
BANDING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE BALL CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LLC,
AND TOGETHER WITH THE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDE SUPPORT TO THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM KNES, AND T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE REGION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS,
MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY A NEARBY TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST,
AND WARM SSTS (28-30C). TD 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TD 14W WILL TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. FROM AN INTENSITY PERSPECTIVE, THE TUTT
CELL CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD LEAVING TD 14W IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
AND ABLE TO TAP INTO DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36.
FROM TAU 48 THROUGH 72, TD 14W WILL MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE POSITION IN RELATION TO THE TUTT CELL,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW. WHILE VWS WILL REMAIN LOW AND SSTS REMAIN HIGH, THESE
FAVORABLE FACTORS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE REDUCTION IN OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A LEVELING OFF OF THE
INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES HIGHLY COMPLEX WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL DISSIPATING AND MOVING
AWAY, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO PLACE TD 14W IN ANOTHER DIVERGENT OUTFLOW PATTERN, WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH HIGH SSTS AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS AGREEING ON THE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Struggling a bit with westerly shear right now.

[Hayabusa]

lol 85 knot peak on 9z warning

[Hayabusa]

Now a tropical storm says JTWC