ATL: KAREN - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Significant run to run changes over last three runs. 12z today panel 96hr shows big differences at 500mb including a much bigger ridge over SE USA.

[floridasun78]

12z Euro has it just south pf PR.

https://i.imgur.com/knHZXNz.jpg

euro show jerry weakness as 99l north of PR HOUR 96

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro showing development just north of PR at 96 hours. Question is will it escape and head north or get blocked by the building high as the GFS shows.

[GeneratorPower]

12Z Euro showing development just north of PR at 96 hours. Question is will it escape and head north or get blocked by the building high as the GFS shows.

https://i.postimg.cc/02SwmGCN/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-5.png

The 500mb high is definitely building in at 96hr but will it be enough? I doubt it. Waiting for 120.

[gatorcane]

Euro 120 hours, ridge is filling in behind Jerry and 99l is gaining strength. Going to be close:

[GeneratorPower]

Euro 120 hours, ridge is filling in behind Jerry and 99l is gaining strength. Going to be close:

https://i.postimg.cc/W3JrsxXs/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-6.png

Seems like models have been plowing systems right through ridges last couple of storms.

[gatorcane]

Slowing down and turning NW at 144 hours, ridge building, will it escape? Looks like it might have a small window to the NE:

[floridasun78]

Euro 120 hours, ridge is filling in behind Jerry and 99l is gaining strength. Going to be close:

https://i.postimg.cc/W3JrsxXs/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-6.png

is 99l over bahamas or other small area north of PR?

[chaser1]

Euro 120 hours, ridge is filling in behind Jerry and 99l is gaining strength. Going to be close:

https://i.postimg.cc/W3JrsxXs/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-6.png

Seems like models have been plowing systems right through ridges last couple of storms.

It may well be close. Looking at the Euro while taking into account the slower process of 9LL to organize at this moment, I think that the Euro model depiction out to it's 96-hour forecast point looks a bit fast to me. Now, whether or not the substantial Southeast conus Ridge will build in strong enough to the north by the time a consolidated T.D. or T.S. makes its way north of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.... remains to be seen. My guess though is that a slower motion would potentially mean a greater threat to the Bahamas and southeast US then a faster motion would.

[gatorcane]

Euro 120 hours, ridge is filling in behind Jerry and 99l is gaining strength. Going to be close:

https://i.postimg.cc/W3JrsxXs/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-6.png

is 99l over bahamas or other small area north of PR?

99l is north of PR. At 168 hours it gets blocked and turns SW:

[LarryWx]

Uh oh, 168 Euro moving WSW with E US ridge building.

[SouthFLTropics]

It’s not going to escape...only one way to go...west or even SW.

[sma10]

For one run at least, things have officially become interesting

[gatorcane]

Heading SW at 192 hours

[Ken711]

Heading SW at 192 hours

Any idea on strength at that point?

[SouthFLTropics]

It’s a very interesting and complex setup with Jerry to the North and potentially Karen to the East. Leaves 99L/Lorenzo hanging out there.

[WeatherEmperor]

Heading SW at 192 hours

Any idea on strength at that point?

Here ya go




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[Nimbus]

For one run at least, things have officially become interesting

Often there is a savior trough that shows up before landfall with these ridge scenarios in the later forecasts.

[WeatherEmperor]

For one run at least, things have officially become interesting

Often there is a savior trough that shows up before landfall with these ridge scenarios in the later forecasts.

That is possibe. From 192 to 216 you can see the ridge already weaking big time....which is why the storm barely moves from 192 to 216. Turn northward beginning??






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[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 216...the race is on. Which one makes it first. Lorenzo or the big trough digging across the Midwest. For the Bahamas and CONUS sake that trough needs to come quickly.